Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of GBP/USD for December 15-18, 2014 Market Analysis Review

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA TO IMPACT ON THE PAIR

Monday GBP - CBI industrial order expectations

USD - Industrial and Manufacturing, Production, and NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday GBP - Bank stress test result, BOE governor Carney speech, CPI, PPI input, and RPI

USD - Building Permits and Housing Starts

Wednesday GBP - Unemployment rate

USD - Core Inflation and Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Thursday GBP - retail sales

USD - Jobless Claims Data

The US strong data and raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon announce a interest rates hike supported the US dollar. The cable managed to gain ground last week. Today, ahead of the US industrial production and NAHB housing market index the pair is trading in a bearish zone. The cable has the nearest support at 1.5695 and 1.5685. The cable managed to close above 20Dsma. For an intraday view, the prices are holding at 35DEMA or 1.5700. In case if the prices fall below 1.5700, we can expect 34hrsma will act as support at 1.5670 and 1.5650. The hourly momentum oscillators are giving a selling signal. We recommend fresh selling below 1.5695 with the targets at 1.5680 ,1.5670, 1.5650, and 1.5630. The pair has hourly resistance at 1.5720 and 1.5736. On the hourly chart, the cable prices are managing to hold and trade above a 1-week support trend line. In case it breaks below the trend line, we can expect 1.5650 will decide the weekly trend. The prices have been consolidating for 3 days.

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Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/USD for December 15-18, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Review- The single European currency supported by the Industrial production data gave an uptick. Industrial production went up by 0.1%, according to the estimates from the Eurostat. In September 2014, industrial production growth was revised down to 0.5% after the projected 0.6%. In October 2014, this indicator increased by 0.7% on a yearly basis. The industrial production is 0.8% up as compared to the same month a year ago.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA IMPACT ON THE PAIR

Monday EUR- German Buda monthly report

USD - Industrial and Manufacturing, Production, NAHB Housing Market Index

Tuesday EUR - French, German, and Euro zone Flash manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Euro zone Balance of Trade, German ZEW Sentiment

USD - Building Permits, Housing Starts

Wednesday EUR - Euro zone Inflation and Core CPI

USD - Core Inflation, Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Thursday EUR - German Ifo business climate

USD - Jobless Claims Data

Friday EUR- German consumer climate and PPI data

Technical view:

At Friday's session, the pair was unable to breach 1.2495 (Thursday's high) levels. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note trading on a downtick with the strong US dollar. Today, the pair direction will be determined at the US session by the industrial production report and NAHB housing market index. We are expecting an uptick from the US data. The pair has a strong resistance zone between 1.2507 and 1.2530. The hourly resistance exists at 1.2494. In case of negative readings on the US data, it may ignite some bullish power above 1.2530 with the targets at 1.2600. The intraday support exists at 1.2370. The hourly support exists at 1.2420 and 1.2400. We recommend selling with the targets at 1.2420, 1.2400, and maybe even at 1.2370 levels.

We can expect panic selling below 1.2360 levels.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 15, 2014 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: This pair has been making serious effort to go upwards – with a measure of success. The market went upwards by over 200 pips last week, closing above the support line at 1.2450. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price is expected to go towards the resistance line at 1.2500.

USD/CHF: This pair has been trending downwards – with a measure of success. The market went downwards by over 170 pips last week, closing below the resistance level at 0.9650. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price is expected to go towards the support level at 0.9600.

GBP/USD: The Cable made some effort to go bullish last week. Price went upwards in a slow and steady manner and then moved sideways, closing at 1.5715 on Friday, December 12, 2014. Price may go further upwards towards the distribution territory at 1.5800, provided that the Greenback continues its current weakness.

USD/JPY: USD/JPY closed below the supply level at 119.00 on Friday. Price nosedived by over 400 pips last week, thereby overturning the recent bullish bias. Things have gone bearish and with continuous weakness in Greenback, price could test the demand level at 118.00.

EUR/JPY: The situation on this cross is dicey. Some indicators are bullish and some are bearish in the same timeframe. Therefore, one may stay aside until there is a clean directional movement. One thing could be noted: This cross is likely to go upwards with a high probability this week .

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 15, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index and Tankan Manufacturing Index. The US is also ready to release some economic data such as NAHB Housing Market Index, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Empire State Manufacturing Index. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 119.13.

Resistance. 2: 118.90.

Resistance. 1: 118.86.

Support. 1: 118.38.

Support. 2: 118.14.

Support. 3: 117.91.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 15, 2014 Market Analysis Review

On the H4 chart, the USDX has been pretty weak below the resistance level of 88.65, because this instrument is trying to find support at the 88.19 level for a rebound and consolidation in the bullish bias this week. If the USDX does a breakout at the resistance level of 88.65, the next target would be the 89.05 level.

H4 chart's resistance levels: 88.27 / 88.44

H4chart's support levels: 88.19 / 87.93

The USDX continues to consolidate below the 200-day moving average on the H1 chart. Now, this instrument is forming a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 88.43. Therefore, the USDX is likely to rise to that level, because the USDX is trying to fill the bearish gap left when opening the week. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 88.43 / 88.71

H1 chart's support levels: 88.15 / 87.86

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 88.43, take profit is at 88.71, and stop loss is at 88.15.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 15, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The GBP/USD pair is trying to stay solid in the bullish trend, next to the 200-day moving average. This pair is likely to reach the resistance level of 1.5811 this week, but we must be aware of a possible breakout at the support level of 1.5698, which would open the way for the pair to fall to the level of 1.5589.

H4 chart's resistance levels: 1.5825 / 1.5874

H4chart's support levels: 1.5698 / 1.5589

At the H1 chart, GBP/USD continues moving in a low range above the support level of 1.5686, where the pair has formed several fractals. The resistance level of 1.5739 remains the strongest area of supply, so that if the GBP/USD takes a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 1.5810. The MACD indicator is moving into the positive territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5739 / 1.5810

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5686 / 1.5632

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5686, take profit is at 1.5632, and stop loss is at 1.5739.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 15 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

Important support at 1.5789 was never in any danger of being hit as the low came in at 1.5843. The following break above 1.5981 indicates that red wave ii is over and red wave iii is developing. In the short term, we would like to see support at 1.5981 protecting the downside for a break above 1.6207 and confirming the rally higher to 1.6273 on the way higher to 1.6446 and 1.6526 in red wave iii. Only an unexpected break below 1.5872 will be of concern and endanger the important low at 1.5789.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.5915 and will move our stop higher to 1.5865. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.5981 with stop at 1.5865 too.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 15 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

Wave c of the correction from 149.13 is developing. Till now, we have seen wave a and b and wave c is currently unfolding. Red wave i ended at 147.69 and red wave ii is unfolding towards the 148.50 - 148.89 area from where the more powerful red wave iii lower to 145.88 is expected. The first target for this correction is found at 144.78. That said, wave c could easily extend lower to 142.05, but for now let's see what will happen as we approach 144.78.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 147.97 and will move our stop to break-even and re-sell EUR at 148.50 with stop placed at 149.20 if/when our stop is hit.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD stays above the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.1191. Further rise could be expected in a couple of days, and next target would be at 1.1700 area. Support is located at the upward trend line, only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF's downward movement from 0.9817 extended to as low as 0.9618. Further decline could be expected, and the target would be at 0.9550 area. Resistance levels are at 0.9725 and 0.9817, only break above these levels could trigger another rise towards 1.0000.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY is facing 117.23 support, as long as this level holds, the fall from 121.84 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 105.32 (Oct 15 low). Sideways movement in a range between 117.23 and 121.84 would likely be seen over the next several days, and another rise towards 125.00 is still possible after consolidation.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD stays below the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.8795. Further decline could be expected over the next several days, and next target would be at 0.8000 area. Near term resistance is at the trend line, and the key resistance is at 0.8374, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD continued its sideways movement in a range between 1.5541 and 1.5825. As long as 1.5825 resistance holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.6182 (Oct 28 high). Further decline could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.5000 area.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - December 15, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD continued its sideways movement in a range between 1.2247 and 1.2599. As long as 1.2599 resistance holds, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.2867 (Oct 15 high), another fall to 1.2000 area is still possible after consolidation.

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