Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range after hitting a six-year high 110.09 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the selling of yen crosses amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 2.45% to 16.71, S&P 500 closed 1.32% lower at 1,946.16 overnight) on fresh concerns about global growth after weak manufacturing PMI data in several major economies, pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and worries about Ebola after the U.S. reported the first case on Tuesday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the profit-taking on long USD positions ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision on Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday, Japan exporter sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.389% versus% 2.508% late Tuesday), weaker USD sentiment on worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August (versus forecast 58.2), surprise 0.8% decrease in U.S. August construction spending (versus forecast for 0.6% increase), lower final Markit U.S. September manufacturing PMI of 57.5 versus preliminary reading of 57.9. But USD sentiment is soothed by the ADP report showing larger-than-expected 213,000 increase in U.S. September private-sector jobs (versus forecast 209,000). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japanese importers.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, stochastics is turning bearish at overbought zone, MACD histogram bars turned negative.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 108.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 107.95. The pivot point stands at 109.10. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.55 and the second target at 110.
Resistance levels:
109.55
110
110.35
Support levels:
108.30
107.95
107.65
Overview
According to our last expections, the price's close below the Support level of 17.30 will give new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Support level to trade below and open the way towards the support level of 17.00 as the first target which is tested now. Metal must break the Support level firstly to get more bearish move till reaching the level of 16.80 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 16.80 cancels bearish scenario.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.50), R2 (17.30), R1 (17.00), S1 (16.80), S2 (16.50).
Fundamental Overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias. USD/CHF is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment. But CHF sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected Switzerland September PMI of 50.4 (versus forecast 52.0). USD/CHF downside is also limited by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD/CHF upside is dented by the profit-taking on long USD positions ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.389% versus% 2.508% late Tuesday), weaker USD sentiment on worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 56.6 in September from 59.0 in August (versus forecast 58.2), surprise 0.8% decrease in U.S. August construction spending (versus forecast for 0.6% increase), lower final Markit U.S. September manufacturing PMI of 57.5 versus preliminary reading of 57.9.
Technical Comments:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9595 and the second target at 0.9635. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9525.
Resistance levels:
0.9595
0.9635
0.9650
Support levels:
0.9485
0.9455
0.9415
Fundamental Overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in lower range.It is undermined by the soft USD/JPY undertone and Japan exporter sales. GBP sentiment is dented by the weaker-than-expected CIPS/Markit U.K. September manufacturing PMI of 51.6 (versus forecast 53.0). GBP/USD is also weighed by the sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and sterling sales on rebounding EUR/GBP. But GBP/USD losses are tempered by weaker USD sentiment. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.
Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 174.50. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 174. The pivot point stands at 176.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 176.65 and the second target at 177.10.
Resistance levels:
176.65
177.10
177.45
Support levels:
174.50
174
173.65
Overview:
On July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending below the depicted downtrend line.
Two bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the downtrend line.
The price level of 1.6140 constituted a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Bullish rejection was witnessed in the previous visit. This led to bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).
Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as expected in previous articles.
This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted channels as well as Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.
The GBP/USD pair remains targeting at 1.6050 ( the recent weekly low ) as long as the market is trading below 1.6240 on a daily basis.
Trading recommendations:
Based on the previous data, the market offered a valid SELL opportunity around 1.6460 during last week's consolidations.
This short position remains valid as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous broken bottom ). Hence, Stop Loss should be located slightly above these price zone. This secures some of the profits.
Bearish targets are located around 1.6160 ( already reached ) and 1.6080 to come next.
Several congestion zones were established around the price levels of 1.3800, 1.3580 and 1.3335 before further bearish decline could take place.
The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after achieving the projection targets of the recent flag pattern.
Careful monitoring price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.
The pair looks oversold and trading beyond the lower limit of the channel. Earlier today, some bullish recovery was witnessed towards 1.2670 ( backside of the breached channel ).
The current short-term bearish trend remains intact as long as bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870 (the recent consolidation zone).
The bearish slide below 1.2820 invalidated the possibility of a short-term bullish reversal.
Careful watching of price action around the current price levels is essential to determine the next destination of the EUR/USD pair.
Recommendation :
A conservative trader should wait for daily closure again inside the channel to look for long positions.
In case the bulls initiate a corrective movement around the lower limit of the channel being breached today, the first target levels to be visited should be located around 1.2870 and 1.2940 where the upper limit of the channel and significant Fibonacci level are located.
I mentioned the bearish shooting star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions at retesting that took place few days later.
Price level of 1.6140 is a key-level on the daily and weekly chart. Hence, we prefer to exit most of the sell positions taken around 1.6400 (61.8% Fibonacci level).
Also note the bullish rejection initiated when market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060.
For conservative traders, Long positions are favorable after such a long bearish movement and at such low prices.
Price levels around 1.6060 up to 1.6100 would probably offer a valid BUY entry. Just signs of bullish pressure is needed to confirm counter-trend position.
4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.
The recent bullish leg which extended between 1.6060 ( the lower limit of the channel ) and price levels around 1.6400 looks strong compared to the recent bearish swings ( no obvious bearish trend structure and a weekly bearish gap (about 150 pips) enabled bears to test 1.6058 ).
High probability of reversal exists around 1.6100.
The bearish rejection off price levels around 1.6450 should be considered as well.
Recommendations :
We can BUY the pair around 1.6100 with our SL placed below 1.6050 with potential targets around 1.6300 and 1.6400.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair has corrected itself into 137.00 levels as seen here, 100 pips lower than what was anticipated. Please note that the pair is bouncing off fibonacci 0.786 support level of the rally between 135.80 and 141.30 at present. Immediate support is at 135.80, followed by 134.00 and lower while resistance is seen at 139.00/20, followed by 141.00/30 and higher respectively. It is recommended to initiate long positions now (137.30/40), risk remains below 135.80. As depicted here, a bullish reversal now could take prices higher up to 143.00 and 145.00 in the coming weeks.
Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions now, stop at 135.80, target 143.00.
Good luck!
Overview:
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (1,223.00) and tested the level of 1,210.22. If the price breaks the level of 1,206.00 in a high volume and healthy price action, we may see potential testing the level of 1,194.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%). According to the daily chart, we can observe very weak demand, which is a sign that buying still looks risky. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,219.23
R2: 1,222.77
R3: 1,228.50
Support levels
S1: 1,207.77
S2: 1,204.23
S3: 1,198.50
Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since we got strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% in the background
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver prints fresh lows at $16.86 on Friday last before pulling back into the $17.40/45 levels. As seen here, the metal is clearly trading in the sell zone of both lines of resistance. Furthermore please note that Silver is bouncing again at the short term resistance line, indicating lower levels possibly towards $16.00. Also note that prices have bounced back from a past support turned resistance zone at $17.40/50. Immediate resistance is at $17.80, followed by $18.60/90 and higher while support is seen at $16.00 and lower respectively. It is recommended to remain flat and look to buy lower on a bullish reversal.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.
Good luck!
General overview for 02/10/2014 10:40 CET
The corrective wave c purple is developing as expected. However, the target level has been broken and the market went a little lower to the 78%Fibo at the level of 136.96. Throughout the whole corrective structure traders can see a three almost equal length measurements in triple three corrective cycle labeled as WXYXXZ of the whole wave B. A rebound is expected here and further impulsive wave progression upward is anticipated. A failure to make this kind of wave progression will shift our focus on the level of 136.68 (88.8%Fibo) and then on invalidation line at the level of 135.81. Support/Resistance:
135.81 - Bullish Count Invalidation Level
136.68 - 88%Fibo
136.96 - 78%Fibo
137.12 - WS2
137.30 - Intraday Resistance
137.73 - WS1
137.94 - Intraday Resistance
138.96 - Weekly Pivot
Trading recommendations:
Day traders should consider opening buy positions from current price levels, with SL below the level of 136.95 and TP level open for now. It might very good level to enter swing buy orders as well.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comGeneral overview for 02/10/2014 10:10 CET
After unexpected fifth wave failure, the market sharply reversed down breaking the important level of 1.1097 for impulsive wave progression. This means the green impulsive count is now invalidated due to wave (iv) and wave (i) overlaps, and new count, even more bullish is on the chart now. This labeling indicates a third black cycle labeled as wave (1) and wave (2) so far with invalidation line at the level of 1.0885. Currently the market is in corrective cycle wave (2) and it looks like the zig-zag pattern in the making. The projected target for this cycle is at the level of 1.0987 and sharp rebound is being expected from there.
Support/Resistance:
1.0987 - 1.0975 - Wave (2) target Zone
1.1033 - WS1
1.1070 - Intraday Support
1.1098 - Weekly Pivot
1.1129 - Intraday Resistance
1.1222 - Swing High
Trading recommendations:
Day traders should consider opening sell positions form current price levels, with SL above the level of 1.1130 and TP at the level of 1.0987.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comThe Dollar index made a pull back yesterday towards our support of 85.50 but support was held. Now trading near 85.80 I believe traders should be very cautious as the ECB is holding the meeting today and everyone is waiting for Mario Draghi's speech. This speech is expected to bring some volatility in the FX markets.
In the daily chart as shown above, the trend remains bullish. Price remains inside the upward sloping channel and is fully bullish according to the Ichimoku cloud indicators. Critical daily support is found at 85. Breaking below it will push the index out of the upward sloping channel. This could be the reversal signal many have been waiting. If a correction starts, we could see the index fall towards 84 or even 83.
As the weekly chart points out, long-term trend remains fully bullish and is very strong. Betting against this trend is not advised. The best strategy is to raise stops for long positions in order to protect profits. Betting against this trend is not advised. Next upside targets are 87-89.
Gold price has pushed upwards yesterday towards the channel boundaries and got rejected. Gold price remains below the important resistance of $1,233 and it may have finished the sideways correction. I continue to expect Gold price to test the important support at $1,180 and finally break below it.
Blue line = support
Green lines = price channel
Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the downward sloping channel. Gold price has reached the upper channel boundaries and got rejected. Gold price is now expected to move lower to test the lows at $1,204. We could see a minor new high but the chances for this are slim.
In the 1 hour chart above, I show the sideways pattern Gold is following. The $1,225 is the maximum level I expect Gold price to rise. Important resistance is found above $1,225 and at $1,233. Breaking above that level will confirm short-term trend change to bullish. I believe that this sideways move will soon give us a break out. I favor the downward break towards $1,180. My longer-term view remains bearish. Confirmation will come once we break $1,180 with $1,000 as target.
Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 1.6128
R2: 1.6088
R1: 1.6047
Current spot: 1.6032
S1: 1.6016
S2: 1.5978
S3: 1.5949
Technical summary:
The correction from 1.6446 is becoming extremely deep. We are currently back-testing the base-channel resistance-line, which is now acting as support. Ideally this support near 1.5978 will protect the downside for a break above 1.6082 and more importantly a break above 1.6243 to confirm the next rally higher to 1.6446 on the way towards 1.6836. Only a break below support at 1.5949, will change the current count, but only to an even more bullish long-term count.
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6100 was hit for a nice profit. We will re-buy EUR at 1.6000 or upon a break above 1.6088 with a stop at 1.5800.
Traders are waiting for today's ECB press conference. The main concern in front of the ECB is the deflation. If the ECB continues further stimulus the euro will weaken further. The pair has been falling for 3 months in a row. The pair made a low at 1.2581 in September, the low remains in this month. The pair is trading at 1.2671 in Asia's session. The pair has strong resistance at 1.2750 which is a multi-month low and 1.2760 200MEma. On the down side, it has support at 1.2571, below this at 1.25 as September 2012 low, 1.2432 the 80.0 fib level, and 1.2218 200MSma levels. The major support level existed at the 1.2218 level. Is a daily close is above 20Dsma 1.2830, the weekly trend turns to positive. Until then, sell on every up move.
For an intraday view, the pair will face heavy volatility. The prices are closed above the hourly key moving averages 12ema and 35DEMA. The pair is currently trading at 1.2640, the speculator can buy with immediate targets at 1.2660, 1.2685, and 1.27 levels. The pair will face selling pressure again below 1.26 .
The yellow metal held the support at $1,204 levels and is trading at $1,219 in Asia's session. The metal made a minor double bottom at $1,204 levels; we can round it to $1,200 levels. Today the metal opened on a strong note, made a high at $1,222. The metal has parallel resistance at $1,223-$1,224, above this, $1,228.80 and $1,230.90. In case of a daily close above $1,228.80-$1,229, the weekly trend turns positive. The weekly resistance is at $1,241.60 levels.
For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading above hourly key moving averages. The prices are consolidating in a descending rectangle, making lower lows and lower highs, representing further bearish thoughts. The metal has initial resistance at $1,223 above this, $1,224, $1,230.90, $1,234.50, and $1,241.60 levels will act as hurdles. On the down side, the metal has supports at $1,207.90, $1,206.50, and $1,204, below these, $1,200, $1,295, and $1,285-$1,280 on the chart.
