GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 14, 2014 Trend News

After the breakout above 1.6600 took place, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped within a consolidation zone located between 1.6600 and 1.6800.

The bulls found 1.6600 as a prominent support to concentrate around. That's why a recent bottom was established there on the last visit on February 24.

Price level of 1.6820 remains the highest level so far. A breakout above this level will allow a quick bullish swing to be initiated towards 1.6870, then possibly towards 1.7000 which are prominent tops on the weekly chart.

Price zone of 1.6740-1.6700 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels) remains the most prominent resistance zone on the 4H chart. This zone applied a considerable bearish pressure that lead to an obvious bearish daily candlestick.

Price level 1.6600 corresponds to the neckline of a possible Double Top reversal pattern being established around 1.6450 (61.8% Fibonacci).

Confirmation of this pattern needs 4H fixation below 1.6600-1.6580 which leads directly to projection target located at 1.6440.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 14, 2014 Trend News

On January 24, the EUR/AUD pair initiated a downside movement. This movement was maintained within the depicted bearish channel.

On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit when the bears seemed to be weak.

Simultaneously, the bulls established a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline was located at 1.5265.

Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with four-hour fixation above the price level of 1.5265. Projection target of this reversal pattern is located at 1.5555.

The pair remains bullish as long as the newly established bottom at 1.5315 remains defended by the bulls.

Bullish momentum needs a 4H closure above 1.5500-1.5530 before enough bullish pressure can be gathered to push towards 1.5580-1.5600.

On the other hand, failure to fixate above 1.5530 will bring the pair back withing the current congestion zone between 1.5210 and 1.5530 giving more time for sideway movements.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

As depicted on the chart, the next demand level is located around 50% Fibonacci at 1.6540.

As long as 1.6820 remains the highest level for the month, the price level of 1.6540 remains the target for the bears.

Another scenario is that a Double Top pattern is being established with the neckline located around 1.6600-1.6580.

Daily fixation below this neckline will enable the pair to reach 1.6400 as a projection target.

On Tuesday, the bears failed to close below 1.6580 (neckline). Instead, daily closure occured at 1.6615.

Another bullish swing towards 1.6715 took place as expected.

Price zone of 1.6700-1.6730 remains an intraday supply for the pair.

Bearish rejection is being expressed on the retesting that took place yesterday.

As long as the bears are still defending this price zone. Price level of 1.6580 remains vulnerable to breakdown. If so, a bearish swing towards 1.6500 is expected to occur shortly after.

Stop loss for the bearish scenario should be located above 1.6750.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms were established on the daily chart. This means the uptrend line established on September 2013 is still intact.

As expected, the ongoing bullish impulse succeeded in hitting price level of 1.3900. This level corresponds to 100% Fibonacci Expansion.

Yesterday, the bulls topped at 1.3965 then bearish rejection was expressed resulting in a prominent Shooting-Star daily candlestick.

Daily closure above 1.3900 will enable the pair to reach its next destination at 1.3980 corresponding to 127% Fibonacci Expansion.

As expected, bullish momentum needed 4H closure above 1.3775 to remain strong for further bullish targets around 1.3980.

Price level of 1.3980 corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted bullish channel. Hence, it's expected to provide considerable SELLING pressure at retesting.

Technically, the price zone of 1.3775-1.3810 remains an important intraday demand zone for the pair. Price movement should be watched for a possible BUY entry.

4H breakdown below 1.3775 will probably invalidate the bullish scenario opening the way towards 1.3650 initially.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting its seven-day low at 101.54 on Thursday. It is undermined by the flows to safe-haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge surged 12.09% to 16.22, S&P tumbled 1.17% overnight) as the intensifying crisis in Ukraine and further signs of weakness in China's economy outweighed positive U.S. data. Geopolitical fears are mounting in the run-up to Sunday's referendum in Crimea on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia. The U.S. and other western nations have warned Moscow that such annexation could have grave international consequences. Meanwhile, China retail sales rose weaker-than-expected 11.8% on year in February (versus +13.5% forecast), while industrial output rose 8.6% on year (versus +9.5% forecast), overshadowing a bigger-than-expected 9,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims in the week ended March 8 to 315,000 (versus 330,000 forecast) and stronger-than-expected 0.3% on month increase in the U.S. February retail sales (versus +0.2% forecast). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment on upbeat jobless claims and retails sales data, demand from the Japanese importers and loose Bank of Japan monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, positive MACD histogram bars are contracting, bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hited on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.10. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.65. The pivot point stands at 102.05. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.40 and the second target at 102.80.

Resistance levels:

102.40

102.80

103.15

Support levels:

101.10

100.65

100.35

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

The NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting one-year high at 0.8606 on Thursday. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion, positive dollar sentiment and concerns over economic slowdown in China and weak commodity prices. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the hawkish monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and positions' adjustment before weekend. The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish; stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8605 and the second target at 0.8650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8490. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8430. The pivot point is at 0.8515.

Resistance levels:

0.8605

0.8650

0.870

Support levels:
08490

0.8430

0.84

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range after hitting more-than-two-year low of 0.8696 Thursday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment and franc sales on weak the CHF/JPY cross. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart mixed as the MACD is bearish, five and 15 day moving averages are declining,but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone, bullish hammer candlestick pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8695. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8680. The pivot point stands at 0.8730. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8750 and the second target at 0.8765.

Resistance levels:

0.8750

0.8765

0.8805

Support levels:

0.8695

0.8680

0.8645

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The GBP/JPY is expected to trade in lower range.It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and weaker euro sentiment after euro-negative comments from ECB President Draghi and Japan exporter sales. But the EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and loose BOJ's monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, stochastics is falling from overbought zone, positive MACD histogram bars are contracting.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 167.70. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 167.10. The pivot point stands at 169.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 170 and the second target at 170.5.

Resistance levels:

170

170.50

171.10

Support levels:

167.70

167.10

166.20

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Gold analysis for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,387.56 on high volume (buying climax on H4 timeframe). According to the daily chart, we can observe weak demand, which is sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Anyway, we may see testing the levels of 1,396.00-1,401.00 before downward correction. Its still risky to sell Gold since we have more space for upward movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,375.37

R2: 1,377.83

R3: 1,381.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,367.43

S2: 1,364.97

S3: 1,361.00

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying at this stage since Gold is on the high new ground and we got signs of weakness in the background.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price rejected from previous swing lows (1.6190) and tested the price of 1.6288 on average volume. Our previous analysis is still valid. Be careful with selling since we've got selling climax in the background and we are near the previous lows. According to H4 timeframe, we can observe weak supplies near the price of 1.6200, which is a sign that selling at that stage looks risky. The EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. I have placed Fibonacci Retracement from the most recent swings and I got Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6300 (currently the test) and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6365. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6190 on high volume, we may see testing the level of 1.6145 before any larger upward movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6305

R2: 1.6339

R3: 1.6392

Support levels:

S1: 1.6199

S2 : 1.6165

S3: 1.6112

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair is on track towards 130.00 levels at the moment. It is testing the line of support at 140.50 levels. A clear break is required to instill further confidence in the bearish setup. It is recommended to remain short, bring risk to break even levels.(143.00)

2. Immediate resistance is at sub 144.00 levels (intermediary), followed by 145.50, while supports are spread through 138.50/136.50 (intermediary), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that EUR/JPY should continue to drift lower after the support trend line breaks. Minimum expectations are 132.00 and 130.00. On the other hand, a bullish reversal here, should be taken as a warning sign to bears.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, set stop at break even, target is 132.00. Reverse trade is on a bullish bounce back at the trend line.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is drifting lower towards 1.4350 levels now. Please note that a any bullish bounce here should remain well capped below the 1.4650/1.4700 level. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at 1.4700.

2. Immediate resistance is at 1.4850/60, followed by 1.4950/60 and 1.5120/30 on the higher side, while supports are spread through 1.4350, followed by 1.4200 and 1.4000 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that GBP/CHF should continue drifting lower at least till 1.4350 for now. A meaningful pullback can be expected after that.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, set stop at 1.4650, target 1 is at 1.4350.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 14, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver remains unchanged for now, trading at sub $21.00 levels. Yesterday was a star doji, indicating that a move lower could be in store. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at $21.70/80.

2. Immediate resistance is at $23.00 while supports are spread through $20.50, followed by $20.00 and lower towards $19.00 (please note that the trend line support is here).

3. The structure reveals that Silver is likely to bounce from sub $20.00/50 levels. Look to buy lower and target towards $23.00 and $24.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at $21.70, target is $20.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 14, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has been printing higher highs and higher lows since Dec 31, 2013. The resistance is %1,375.00 has also been taken out before prices eased off to the days' lows. It is expected that prices shall remain subdued within the $1,370.00/72.00 range today, leaving space to initiate a meaningful retracement early next week. It is recommended to remain flat for now.

2. Immediate resistance is at $1,410.00/15.00 levels, while supports are spread through $1,327.00 levels, followed by $1,320.00/10.00, $1,230.00/40.00, and lower respectively.

3. The entire structure reveals that 2 major resistance levels have been taken out this week, and a meaningful retracement should resume towards $1,250.00 levels.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for March 12, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has been trading downwards, corrective wave (ii) (coloured green) of the bigger wave [c] (coloured black) has extended developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see strong descending movement from 1.1153 towards the 1.1042 level, we can now call the (ii) wave as the Expending Flat pattern (3-3-5). While the price remains above the 1.1040 level, we are going to call the impulsive (iii) wave as already started, and we are going to look for more buying opportunity in the next pullback. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1327 (161.8% of wave (i)).In the higher time-frames, the USD/CAD pair is again calling that we are in the upwards trend, and swing traders can also try to join the buyers at the pullbacks, but for resistance we can look for the 1.1400 level.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0954, (S2) 1.0998, (S1) 1.1033, (PP) 1.1077, (R1) 1.1112, (R2) 1.1156, (R3) 1.1191.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1050 with stop loss at 1.1042 and take profit at 1.1327 are recommended.

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#USDX technical analysis for March 14, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index bounced once it touched the lower wegde boundaries but still remains in downtrend. Lower highs is not a good sign for bulls. Short-term trend remains down as the index trades below the Ichimoku cloud and has not broken above the previous high at 79.93.

For the trend to change to up, we will need to see a break above 80.05. Until then we remain bearish with short-term stop 79.93. At 79.80-79.93, we find the Ichimoku cloud resistance and the previous high. If weakness from the Asian markets continues today and if things in Ukraine take an ugly turn, we should expect more dollar strength and possibly a break out above 80.05.

The daily chart continues to be bearish. Trend is down and we are heading towards 79 which is our short-term target. Important long-term price level is 81.40 and 80.50. Unless these two levels are broken, we should expect the downward move to continue towards 75-76.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 12, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
For the last couple of days, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, impulsive wave [iii] (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 60-minutes chart of the pair, we can see clear impulsive wave developing from the 0.8921 level, this is early confirmation that we can see more upside movements while price remain above the 0.8950 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 0.9290 (161.8% of wave (i)). For this bullish count to stay valid, the RSI indicator on the 1-hour chart, need to show us at least a marginal divergence when price complete the (iii) wave (coloured green). Long-term traders, should wait for the corrective (B) wave (coloured red) to complete before they join the selling opportunity against the 0.9500 area.



Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8858, (S2) 0.8921, (S1) 0.8975, (PP) 0.9038, (R1) 0.9092, (R2) 0.9155, (R3) 0.9209.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9045 with stop loss at 0.8920 and take profit at 0.9290 are recommended.

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Gold technical analysis for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Gold bulls are making a pause to the upward trend. Gold price is stalling at $1,370. A short-term consolidating pattern is being built, but the trend remains up in all time frames. Bulls continue to have the upper hand. A gold price pull back towards $1,355-60 is very possible in order for the break out level to be back tested.

Short-term support is found at $1,365 and short-term resistance is found at $1,376. Our short-term target is $1,380-90 as long as we trade above $1,340. Trend is up as Gold price remains above the Ichimoku cloud in our 4 hour chart as shown above. The upward move is not too steep in order to be characterised as parabolic and thus too risky. The slope of the rising trend is such that it could sustain this upward move for much more time.

The daily chart continues to support bullish trend. A back test towards $1,355-60 is possible but not necessary. In the daily chart Gold price remains above the Ichimoku cloud support and above the red upward sloping trend line. Intermediate term trend is up with $1,400-$1,450 target.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 14, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The strong support will be set at the price of 0.8444 on March 14, 2014. Moreover, the resistance has already set at 0.8624 in H1 chart. So, we expect a range about 75 pips today. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair has still been moving between 0.8590 and 0.8520. It should be noted that the key level is set at the level of 0.8624. Equally important, the double top will be formed at the 0.8605 level. As it is know, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.8624 or 0.8605 with the first target of 0.8540 to test the minor support. It will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8460. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed above 0.8624 at the price of 0.8650.

Notes :

• Strong support: 0.8444.


• Minor resistance: 0.8540


• Strong resistance: 0.8624


• New range: 75 pips.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 14, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: Our target at 1.4000 has not been reached because the price pulled back from the resistance line at 1.3950. The bullish bias is still valid on the EUR/USD, and therefore, that drop is seen as a transient sale in the price. The price could thus rally massively again. Only a drop below the support line at 1.3800 could render the current bullish scenario invalid.

USD/CHF: On this currency trading instrument, the present rally is an opportunity to go short at a better price. Yes, this is a rally that gives a short-selling opportunity, unless the market breaches the resistance level at 0.8800 to the upside. At least, the price is supposed to test the support level at 0.8700 again.

GBP/USD: This is a bear market, the weakness in the Cable could continue as it is. Although, the weakness is not that significant, it is probable that when a greater momentum returns to the market, it could push the cable further southward.

USD/JPY: There has been a significant drop in the price of the USD/JPY, and the price is now very close to the demand level at 101.50. Since the yen is a counter-cyclical currency, the economic issues in Japan would only strengthen the currency. The new bearish bias has been confirmed and it pays to ride one’s short order until it reaches the demand level at 101.00.

EUR/JPY: There are new bearish signals on the JPY pairs. For instance, the EUR/JPY dropped from the supply zone at 143.00, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The drop was more than 270 pips this week. The best thing to do now is to seek short trades, preferably shorting short-term rallies.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 14, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 14/03/2014 08:30 CET

There is an interesting situation on H4 time frame as the price, after a sudden sell-off, almost hit the golden channel lower trendline. This wave progression can still be considered as a wave (4) correction in shape or abc irregular flat, but any breakout below the golden channel and below the invalidation line at the level of 140.27 will result in main impulsive count invalidation. The alternate count then would suggest only three wave progression, so it would mean the wave 4 purple has not been finished yet. In that case next support for the price is at the level of 138.78.

Support/Resistance:

142.35 - Weekly pivot

141.25 - Technical resistance

140.83 - WS1

140.27 - Invalidation line

138.78 - Technical support

Trading recommendations:

As it has been advised yesterday: sell stop orders should be in play if the level of 142.82 is broken. If You still have this orders running in profit, then move the SL above the level of 141.31 and wait for next market move. Any breakout below 140.24 is a bearish continuation sign.

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