Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Overnight, US stocks rebounded after Tuesday's sharp declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.8% to 16351, the S&P 500 also gained 1.8% to 1948, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5% to 4749. Nymex crude oil traded with increased volatility and was up 1.9% to $46.25 a barrel, while gold slid 0.5% to $1133 an ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield stepped up to 2.193% from 2.174% on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar regained footing and strengthened broadly against other major currencies with EUR/USD dropping 0.8% to 1.1226 overnight, USD/JPY gaining 0.8% to 120.32 and USD/CHF rising 1.1% to 0.9685. Regarding USD/JPY, the pair is approaching the first upside target at 120.65, with support provided by the rising 20- and 50-period intraday moving averages (MAs). The intraday RSI is riding on a bullish trendline and placed within the buying area between 50 and 70.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 118.40 and the second target at 117.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.35 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 120.65. The pivot point is at 119.90.

Resistance levels: 120.35 120.65 120.95

Support levels: 118.40 117.85 117.25

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair remains on the upside, backed by its ascending 20- and 50-period intraday MAs. Technically, the intraday RSI stands above its neutrality area at 50 and is still positive. Moreover, the nearest key support at 0.9675 should prevent any downward attempts and call for a new rise. To conclude, as long as 0.9675 is not broken, further advance is more likely to occur towards 0.9785 and 0.9825 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9785 and the second target at 0.9825. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9635 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9565. The pivot point is at 0.9675.

Resistance levels: 0.9785 0.9825 0.9865

Support levels: 0.9635 0.9565 0.9525

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair stays below its key resistance at 0.6390 and is expected to look for a lower bottom in the forthcoming sessions. The 20-period intraday MA is below its 50-period one, calling for further downside as well. And the intraday RSI lacks strong upward momentum. The first target to the downside is therefore set at the horizontal support and overlap at yesterday's low at 0.62855. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness towards 0.6240 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6285. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6240. The pivot point stands at 0.390. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6430 and the second target at 0.6470.

Resistance levels: 0.6430 0.6470 0.6505

Support levels: 0.6285 0.6240 0.62

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. The pair is reversing downwards after breaking below its previous support at 182.40, which should now play a key resistance role. A double top pattern has been validated, calling for an intraday trend reversal. And the descending 50-period intraday MA maintains a bearish bias. Moreover, the intraday RSI remains below its 50% neutrality area and is capped by a declining trendline. The first target to the downside is therefore set at 180.50. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness towards the horizontal support and overlap at 180 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 180.50. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 180. The pivot point stands at 182.40. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 183.35 and the second target at 184.

Resistance levels: 183.35 184 185.10

Support levels: 180.50 180 179.15

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Technical analysis of Gold for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold continues drifting lower as expected and is trading around the $1,118.00 levels for now. Please note that the metal responded/reversed from the trendline, Fibonacci 0.618, and past support turned resistance zone around the $1,170.00 levels earlier, and the fall could accelerate from here on. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk at the $1,180.00 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at the $1,110.00 levels followed by $1,090.00, $1,075.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $1,170.00 levels followed by $1,120.00/30.00 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at $1,180.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver raised through the $15.00 levels as expected yesterday, and reversed lower as depicted on the 4H chart. The metal is seen to be producing a bearish candlestick pattern as seen here, and is expected to drift lower. Besides, note that the $15.00 levels are also the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the drop from $15.60 to $14.00. It is hence recommended to remain short with risk at $15.80 levels. Immediate support is seen at $14.00 levels followed by $13.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at the $15.60 levels and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at $15.80, target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of Silver for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Silver price continues fluctuating around the 14.70 level, pointing to the fact that the daily candlestick close was below the mentioned level, which keeps the negative scenario valid until now, waiting to visit 13.50 followed by 12.80 on the near-term basis. We remind you that breaching the 14.70 level will lead the price to rise and test the bearish channel's resistance around 15.30 before any new attempt to resume the bearish bias. The price needs negative motive that supports the chances for heading towards 13.50 then 12.80 on the near-term basis.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair continues drifting lower as expected and discussed earlier and is probably targeting the 132.00/131.00 levels from here on. Please note that it is still possible that the pair is correcting its earlier rally between 126.00 and 140.00 for now and may not drop below the 126.00 levels. It is hence recommended to fix partial profits on short positions taken earlier and move risk to break-even levels. Immediate support is seen at the 131.00 levels followed by 129.00, 126.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 139.00 levels followed by 140.00/141.00 and higher.

Trading recommendations:

Fix partial profits now, move stop to break even, target 131.00.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview

GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 183.14 last week, but was supported above 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 and recovered. Overall outlook did not changed. Price actions from 195.86 are viewed as a consolidation pattern and should be supported by mentioned 182.88 Fibonacci level. An upside breakout through 195.86 is expected later. However, sustained trading below 182.88 will dampen our view and turn focus back to the 174.86 support instead.

In the longer term, the uptrend from the 116.83 long-term bottom is still in progress. The current rise is likely to have a test on 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80 in the medium term at least. A break of 174.86 will bring deeper correction first.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair continues trading within the broader range between 1.4600 and 1.4900. The pair can break below the 1.4600 levels, but the risk/reward ratio to initiate short positions now is not good. It is recommended to exit long positions and remain flat for now, looking to initiate short positions at higher levels. Immediate resistance is seen at the 1,4900 levels (interim) followed by 1.5100 and higher, while support is seen at 1.4600 levels followed by 1.4500 and lower. The pair needs to break out of the confined trading range to enable taking positions.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.733. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. The trend is neutral. Buying still looks risky, since we got strong weakness today. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. We need to see a change in the trend behavior from neutral to downward and then we can watch for selling opportunities. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe sings of weakness (no demand and upthrust) that means we may expect a downward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and our Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of 1.7510 is on the test.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7640

R2: 1.7735

R3: 1.7895

Support levels:

S1: 1.7327

S2: 1.7230

S3: 1.7075

Trading recommendations: Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for September 04 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,122.67. According to the daily time frame, we can observe a weak supply bar (no-supply bar) in a volume below the average. Watch only for selling opportunities after retracement. Strong support is found at the level of $1,117.50. If the price breaks this support level, we will get the second support around $1,085.00. According to the H1 time frame, we can observe sign of weakness (supply coming in). Anyway, in the background we got a potential stopping volume with low at the price of $1,122.00. I would like to see a breakout of that area to confirm further downward. The trend is strong in favor of sellers so buying looks risky. Be careful of the news relases today and trade safe.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,130.45

R2: 1,133.45

R3: 1,138.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,121.00

S2: 1,117.65

S3: 1,113.00

Trading recommendations:

There is weak demand today on the market but stopping volume from yesterday is still in the play at the price of $1,122.00.

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview 04/09/2015:

The main event of the day is the Non-Farm Employment Change news release that is currently expected to hit the level of 215k. This jobs report is rather important for the US economy.

Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place in under two weeks, market participants are very cautious. Today the market is rather quiet that is typical for this kind of important news release, especially if the NFP number might influence the Fed's attitude towards the first possible rate hike in six years. Please notice that I would expect to see a lot of volatility around the news release.

The US Dollar Index technical picture shows a strong rebound from the 93.13 support with daily candle close way above the level. Any better-than-expected figures might result in a test at the level of 98.33. Please bare in mind the golden trend line as well.

The release is scheduled as follows:

12:30 USA Unemployment Rate exp. 5.2%

12:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change exp. 215K

12:30 USA Change in Private Payrolls exp. 215K

12:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings Aug exp. 0.2% m/m; 2.1% y/y

12:30 USA Participation rate exp. 62.6%

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Global macro overview for 04/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview 04/09/2015:

Yesterday's ECBs decision on the interest rate (to maintain it at 0.05%), deposit facility rate (-0.20%), and marginal lending facility (0.3%) did not surprise market participants. Another decision to increase the issue share limit on securities to 33% from 25% wasn't priced in as a rather possible and unavoidable result of the current ECB's monetary policy, so this news together with dovish comments of Mario Draghi was the main reason behind the general weakness in the euro. Moreover, as indicated yesterday, Mario Draghi mentioned that the asset-purchase size and timeline might be extended beyond September 2016 if necessary.

Today's major event is the NFP number release scheduled for 12:30 GMT. The market expectations are at the level of 215k and any number better then this might cause further EUR/USD sell-offs .

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 04/09/2015 11:00 CET

The latest bullish count labeling did not do well as the new low had been reached before wave b green unfold. So, let's just take a look at a higher cycle labeling to indicate a possible target for the recent market decrease. The 61%Fibo support is seen at the level of 131.92, 66%Fibo support is seen at the level of 131.09 and both of this levels correspond to the 1-to-1 geometry range ( orange rectangle). This zone might be then the target for wave C and a possible upside rebound form the zone is currently expected.

Support/Resistance:

131.92 - 61%Fibo

131.09 - 66%Fibo

131.75 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should close their sell orders in the support zone between the levels of 131.92 and 131.09.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 04/09/2015 10:40 CET

The market has decline in three waves from the top of wave b green. This might suggest a further complex wave progression that might be developing in the sideways manner round the weekly pivot at the level of 1.3230. Please notice that the impulsive wave progression is likety to be rather low now unless the intraday support at the level of 1.3115 is violated in impulsive fashion.

Support/Resistance:

1.3352 - Swing High

1.3326 - Intraday Resistance (strong)

1.3319 - WR1

1.3230 - Weekly Pivot

1.3164 - Intraday Support

1.3115 - Intraday Support (strong)

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to occur. Swingtraders should close their long-term buy orders and wait for the further confirmation of a higher-degree corrective cycle.

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USDX technical analysis for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The US Dollar Index broke above the bullish flag pattern and above the short-term resistance of 96.20. The trend is bullish but there are some signs of weakness. With NFP numbers announced today, traders should be very cautious as volatility is expected to rise sharply today.

Green line - support

The index is in a bullish short-term trend moving towards higher highs and higher lows. Support is seen at 96.10 and 95.80. A breakout below these levels will probably push the index even lower towards the cloud support at 95. In case of a breakout below the cloud support, we will find the next support at 94.

This week's candle is still below the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). This is not a good sign. A rejection at these levels will be a bearish signal. Bulls need to be very cautious as my forecast of the second pullback towards 92 is still in play.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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Gold technical analysis for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price broke its short-term support yesterday but found the next support at $1,120, where the recent low was found on August 18. The short-term trend is bearish. Bullish signal will come when we break above $1,133.

Green line - support

Black line - resistance

Gold price is trading above the Green trend-line support but below the Black trend line that connects its two recent highs. The rice is also below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This confirms that bears are in control of the short-term trend. The picture will change if the price breaks above $1,133.

The weekly chart is still supported by the tenkan-sen (red line-indicator), but we should see a bounce today towards $1,145 after the announcement of the Non-Farm Payrolls. Only in that case bulls will have chances of success. If the week closes below $1,120, the next-week trend will be bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

There is still no verdict here. As long as support at 1.7103 stays intact, one more rally higher to 1.9023 and above can not be excluded. To confirm a new rally higher towards 1.9023, a break above minor resistance at 1.7743 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.7896 should be seen. That said, we are a bit reluctant to make a strong call for one final rally above 1.9023. The reason behind it is that the top of wave iii seems to move very far away and risk of a wave five failure could be much greater than normally.

Trading recommendation:

The trend is still up. Support at 1.7103 is still holding firm, so we would normally be buying EUR, but the risk seems much greater than normal, so for now we will stay neutral.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

A break below 133.27 confirmed that correction from 141.06 is still unfolding and should move lower to 131.63 as the next downside target. The short-term former support at 133.27 will act as resistance now , but even in case of a breakout the back-up resistance will be found at 133.67, which is expected to protect the upside.

But what if support at 131.63 gives away too? Looking at the price-action since May we have a clear S/H/S top in place (see the chart below). Yesterday's break below 133.27 points to a break below the S/H/S neckline and the measured downside target for this formation is below a mid-April low of 126.05. If this low is broken, the rally to 141.06 would be assumed to be an X-wave and a much larger correction is unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

We will place an order to sell EUR at 133.25

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has now broken out of its recent sideways phase. The breakout favored the bears as the price tested the support line at 1.1100. The bears' willingness to continue testing the support line is perceived and the line may yield as the EUR/USD goes further south today.

USD/CHF: The bias on this pair is bullish, owing to the near-term strength in the USD. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. The price has tested the resistance level at 0.9750, and it may test it again, breaching it to the upside.

GBP/USD: The cable has dived by 160 pips this week, resting on the accumulation territory of 1.5250. There are now a lot of activities around the accumulation territory, as bull and the bear continue to struggle for supremacy, an ongoing volatility would be observed. The accumulation territory at 1.5200 remains an easy target for bear.

USD/JPY: This market is also bearish vividly. Based on the price action, it would be rational to seek short trades when the market rallies a bit. As long as the rally does not hit the market above the supply level of 121.50, this would be called a bearish market.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross, which became bearish last week, has fallen by 250 pips this week. In line with our expectations, the price has gone below the supply zones at 134.50 and 134.00. With more selling pressure in the market, this cross could also test the demand zone of 133.00.

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Daily analysis of USDX for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The USDX is still alive in the bullish path above the support level of 95.83, and current resistance zone of 96.64 could produce a pullback. However, this corrective move should have a short duration, as the USDX is expected to test the resistance level of 97.23.

On the H1 chart, the USDX is forming a higher high pattern above the support level of 96.34 and we should see a test around the resistance level of 96.63. If a breakout happens over there, the index will rise to 97.03. The MACD indicator is entering the negative territory, and this would mean the USDX could perform corrective moves soon.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 96.64 / 97.23

Daily chart's support levels: 95.83 / 95.26

H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.63 / 97.03

H1 chart's support levels: 96.34 / 96.09

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.63, take profit is at 97.03, and stop loss is at 96.24.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release data on Average Cash Earnings y/y and the US will publish economic data on the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So, there is a strong probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with medium to high volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.14.

Resistance. 2: 120.19.

Resistance. 1: 119.94.

Support. 1: 119.65.

Support. 2: 119.42.

Support. 3: 119.18.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, economic news on the Revised GDP q/q, Retail PMI, and German Factory Orders m/m is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with medium to high volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1176.

Strong Resistance:1.1170.

Original Resistance: 1.1159.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1148.

Target Inner Area: 1.1112.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1096.

Original Support: 1.1085.

Strong Support: 1.1074.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1068.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 04, 2015 Market Analysis Review

On the daily chart, there is still a lower continuation on GBP/USD towards new monthly lows, as the pair is approaching the support zone of 1.5224. We should see a breakout there in order to test the next support around the level of 1.5107. The other path is calling for a correction towards the resistance level of 1.5329 in the short term.

We can see a breakout below 1.5272. Now, the pair is testing the support level of 1.5220. On the H1 chart, 200 SMA is still bearish and we could expect another fall towards the support zone of 1.5167 in coming hours. However, after this long fall made by the GBP/USD, there could happen some rebounds during the process.

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5329 / 1.5438

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5224 / 1.5107

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5272 / 1.5331

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5220 / 1.5167

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5220, take profit is at 1.5167, and stop loss is at 1.5272.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 4, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The USD/CHF pair has rebounded from minor support at 0.9701 and it is now approaching its support in order to test it again. As it is known, we use historic rates to determine future prices, so it will probably start upside movement at this area and recovery again at the level of 0.9701. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy at this spot with the first target at 0.9769 and continue towards 0.9826. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the level of 0.9659, then it will be a good location for placing stop loss below 0.9643. The value of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was calculated at 0.9659. If the price hits 0.9659, it will continue in moving in a bearish trend towards 0.9581. It should remind you that you should check out the market volatility before investing, because the price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.

Notes:

• We expect a range about 82 pips today.
• The risk of 41 pips must make a profit of 82 pips.
• The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.9580.
• The level of 0.9701 will confirm the bullish market.

Technical levels:

• It should be noted that the price will be moving between 0.9701 and 0.9783 today.
• Projected high: 0.9826.
• Strong support (sell stop): 0.9656.
• Projected low: 0.9580.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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