EUR/NZD analysis for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5955 in a very high volume. We can observe that the price has broken our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6095, which pushed the price to continue with downward pressure. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe a bullish corrective phase, so I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6070 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6140. We also got absorption volume in the background, which makes EUR/NZD very risky for mid-term buying.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6194

R2: 1.6236

R3: 1.6305

Support levels:

S1: 1.6056

S2: 1.6014

S3: 1.5945

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% got broken

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Gold : analysis for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,161.06 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our swing low at the price of 1,183.00 is broken, so we we may expect testing the level of 1,147.00 (major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a high volume, which is a sign that the price may continue with downwad movement. A smaller bullish corrective phase is possible but watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,211.55

R2: 1,216.51

R3: 1,224.53

Support levels

S1: 1,195.51

S2: 1,190.55

S3: 1,182.53

Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since price has broke swing low

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 31 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6164

R2: 1.6120

R1: 1.6059

Current spot: 1.6031

S1: 1.6000

S2: 1.5958

S3: 1.5932

Technical summary:

The failure to break above resistance at 1.6263 and the following break below support at 1.6000 is very disappointing and frustrating. We still prefer the bullish picture, but at this point there is no clear-cut short-term count. We do think, that red wave ii has taken on the shape of an expanded flat correction, but a break above resistance at 1.6107 is needed to confirm this count. Under no circumstances can a break below support at 1.5903 be allowed as the will immediately shift the count to the expanded diagonal.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6000 was hit for a small loss. We will await a more clear-cut picture before getting exposed.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 141.22

R2: 140.20

R1: 139.70

Current spot: 13939

S1: 139.10

S2: 138.82

S3: 138.40

Technical summary:

BOJ unexpectedly announced its decision to expand the stimulus with additional 80 trillion JPY, which has propelled the JPY higher. Now, the rally from the 134.14 low is having all signs of an impulsive rally. We expect resistance at 141.22 to be broken to confirm that an important bottom is in place at 134.14. However, if resistance at 141.22 is broken, then the entire correction from the 145.69 high must be regarded as being over and a new impulsive rally higher to 186.04 as the next long-term upside target. For now, we expect support near 139.10, which ideally will protect the downside to test important resistance at 141.22, but only above here, will call for more upside in a longer term.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 138.10 was hit for a little loss. We will await stronger clues, whether the correction from 145.69 finally comes to and end at 134.14

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a three-week high 109.46 on Thursday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the report that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund plans to lower its target allocation for domestic bonds from nearly 60% now to 35% (versus market expectations of reduction to 40%) over the medium to long term, positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 86.15 versus 85.98 early Thursday) after slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and stronger-than-expected 3.5% annual growth in U.S. 3Q GDP (versus forecast +3.1%), although details to the report were less rosy; 250 drop in four-week moving average for U.S. initial jobless claims to 281,000 in week ended Oct. 25, the lowest average reading since May 2000. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.16% to 14.52) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.62% at 1,994.65). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.308% versus 2.321% late Wednesday) after Germany's inflation data came in softer-than-expected and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 112.55 and the second target at 113.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 109.45. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 108.70. The pivot point is at 110.

Resistance levels:

112.55

113.40

113.85

Support levels:

109.45

108.70

108.35

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting three-week high 0.9613 on Thursday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected Switzerland October KOF economic barometer of 99.8 (versus forecast 98.2). USD/CHF is also weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the positive USD sentiment, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comments:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is in a bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9650 and the second target at 0.9680. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9480. The pivot point is at 0.9565.

Resistance levels:

0.9650

0.9680

0.9710



Support levels:

0.9515

0.9480

0.9450

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is to trade in a lower range. The pair is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 86.15 versus 85.98 early Thursday) after slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday; stronger-than-expected 3.5% annual growth in U.S. 3Q GDP (versus forecast +3.1%), although details to the report were less rosy; 250 drop in four-week moving average for U.S. initial jobless claims to 281,000 in week ended Oct. 25, the lowest average reading since May 2000, Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, and positions adjustment before the weekend. But NZD/USD gains tempered by Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in a bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7765. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7700. The pivot point stands at 0.79. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7955 and the second target at 0.7990.

Resistance levels:

0.7955

0.7990

0.8045

Support levels:

0.7765

0.77

0.7665

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBO/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. GBP/JPY is underpinned by the report that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund plans to lower its target allocation for domestic bonds from nearly 60% now to 35% (versus market expectations of reduction to 40%) over the medium to long term. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.75 and the second target at 180.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 175.15. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 173.90. The pivot point is at 175.90.

Resistance levels:

179.75

180.70

181.35

Support levels:

175.15

173.90

173

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#USDX Technical analysis for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index after back testing the break out area at 86 yesterday, has managed to stage another rally towards previous highs which are now being tested. The trend is bullish and I remain bullish following the bullish flag pattern I have posted several times before.

The Dollar index has moved back above the Ichimoku cloud and after back testing the 85.20 support it bounced strongly upwards with the FOMC on Wednesday. Thursday, we saw a consolidation of this strong break out and a pull back to test the 86 break out level. Today, we see the Dollar index challenging the highs at 86.75. I remain bullish the Dollar targetig 91.

Once again, I post the daily chart with the clear bullish flag formation targeting 91. The trend is clearly bullish as price is above the Ichimoku cloud and is making higher highs and higher lows. This upward move is expected to continue higher towards 91 which is my 1st target. Stop for long positions should be the 85.20 level.

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Gold Technical analysis for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price as expected has broken $1,200 and the huge support has set at $1,180. The bearish trend remains strong both in the short- and long-term. Our longer-term target remains at $1,050 as I have been saying for so long. The trend is down and now that we have broken below the triple bottom, the selling pressures should push Gold price much lower.

Red line = support broken

Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and has extended the decline after my sell signal at $1,220. Now below the triple bottom at $1,180, the road is open for a steeper decline towards $1,100 first and lower in the future. Trend is clearly down and any bounce should be sold. Resistance is found at $1,200 and $1,220.

Blue line =resistance

Black line= support

In the weekly chart as shown above we finally see the triple bottom being broken. The weekly resistance level at $1,237 was tested and price got rejected as bulls could not close a week above it. This was a clear bearish sign and that is why I said in my analysis that the upward bounce from $1,180 to $1,255 was over. The trend is down and heavy selling is expected to follow in this market to new lows. Breaking such a bearish formation has many chances of succes for short positions.

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Review on USD/CHF for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Stronger US data pushed the pair above 6-day high. In yesterday's session, we recommend buying above 0.9562 with the targets at 0.9600 an 0.9625. The pair made a high at 0.9610. We can expect a bigger upswing above 0.9625 the 80.0 fib level towards 0.9685 and 0.9726 on a positional basis. On the down side, the pair has support at 0.9510 20Dsma. Below 0.9510, the ascending trend line will provide enough support to push the prices higher. In case the prices close below the ascending trend line, the base support 0.9400 will act as strong support. The pair has been trading in a 160 pips range. For an intraday session, the pair has support at 0.9540. In case the pair closes above 0.9576 on a daily basis, it can challenge 100 pips more on the upper side. For an hourly basis, above 0.9576 we can expect good momentum towards 0.9590, 0.9610, and 0.9625 levels.

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Trading recommendation on Gold for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The yellow metal drifted below $1,200.00 after the upbeat US data. The metal closed below $1,200.00 after 18- sessions. On the downside, the metal has support at $1,193.00 and $1,190.80. Today, gold opened on a minor bullish note. The daily Stochastic is indicating oversold. The metal settled at a 4-week low. In the h4 chart, the prices are making minor support base at $1,198.00 levels. We recommend selling below $1,198.00; strong selling pressure is below $1,293.00 levels. On the upside, it has resistance at $1,202.80, above this at $1,207.40 or 12hr high, $1,208.50 or 12ema, and $1,210.50 or 35DEMA. The hourly momentum oscillators favor to pull back. We recommend buying above $1,203.00 with the immediate target at $1,207.00, above this at $1,208.50, $1,210.00 levels are possible. In yesterday's session, we recommended selling with sl $1,216.00 with the target of $1,200.00 which gave good money. The metal favors selling on every rise. Today, the selling range exists at $1,207.50-$1,208.50 sl $1,210.50, the target at $1,200.00 levels. As we recommended in our earlier articles, the longer-term picture favors bears with the target at 800.00 and in the short term at $1,180.00 and $1,150.00 levels.

Trade:

Selling below $1,198.00

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommendations :

• We expect that the trend of EUR/USD is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.2707 in H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 95 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 1.2707-1.2646 with the first target of 1.2550, it might resume to 1.2481in order to test the weekly support. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.2728 level.

Review :

• The price hit the weekly support 1 resistance 1 and pivot point this week.


• The major support is going to set at 1.2481 on October 31, 2014.


• The level of 1.2707 is representing the weekly pivot point, it will act as strong resistance today.


• Hence, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2510 and 1.2647.


• So, we expect a range between 113 pips and 184 pips this week.


• Therefore, it will be very useful to sell below the price of 1.2707 in the long term with the first target at 1.2546 in order to test the double bottom. But if the trend is able to break the double bottom at 1.2546, then it might resume to the level of 1.2481.

Notes :

• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: EUR is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


• The double bottom will set at the level of 1.2500 and this level is going to represent the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in H1 chart.


• The minor support is going to set at 1.2546.


• The major support had already set at the price of 1.2481. Moreover, the double bottom also coincides with the major support.

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Technical Analysis on USD/CAD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair has been consolidating for the last two days. The pair is trading in a narrow range between the 1.1223 and 1.1166 levels. The prices tried to breach the 20Dsma on the upside, but unable to close above that. Today, traders are keeping an eye on Canadian GBP data. We recommend buying with sl 1.1166 with the targets at 1.1213, 1.1223, and 1.1250. Bulls will regain strength in case the pair closes above the 1.1223 levels. We can see a strong upswing only above 1.1300. Until the prices close below 1.1300, we can see mixed returns on a weekly basis. In the daily chart, the Stochastic is indicating a buying signal. But the prices are obeyed to the descending trend line in the daily chart. These factors represent the mixed views. For an Intraday view, we can expect a strong upswing above 1.1210 levels or 34hrsma. The pair looks weak below 1.1166, we recommend selling below 1.1160 with the targets at 1.1150, 1.1137, and 1.1120 levels.

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Trading recommendation on EUR/USD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair drifted to the previous low's on an intraday basis, but at the end of the day it recovered most of its losses. The pair managed to closed above 1.2600 levels. In the current month, only one trading left. To regain mild strength today, bulls must close above the 1.2631 levels. On the down side, the pair has major support at 1.2500, below this panic will be triggered. As we recommended on the October 28th article, selling below 1.2660 gave good money. For the longer-term view, we still recommend selling on every up move for a down side with the target at 1.2220 initially, later at 1.20 and maybe 1.1875. For an Intraday view, we recommend selling below 1.2595 with the targets at 1.2585, 1.2575, 1.2550, and 1.2510. The pair has hourly support at 1.2597 35DEMA, resistance exists at 1.2632. We can see a minor upswing in case if the pair breaches above 1.2632. We recommend buying above 1.2635 with the targets at the 1.2653 and 1.2660 levels. Selling on every rise will mint the money.

Trade: Selling below 1.2595

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 31/10/2014 08:20 CET

After the fundamental news release from Japan, this market spiked way much higher, breaking the supply zon and technical resistance. For now, it has stopped just shy of the longer term golden trendline that can be seen on this H4 time frame chart. If we take a look a little closer, we might see the upward progression in three waves so far. It has hit the next Fibo extension at the level of 138.89 (161%(a)=(c)). Currently, two scenarios are possible: either this wave up will continue to the golden trendline and then reverse, or the market is loosing steam already and some corrective cycle to the downside is needed.

Support/Resistance:

141.20 - Swing High

140.20 - Golden Trend Line Resistance

139.89 - 161%Fibo Level

138.01 - Untested Breakout Level

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should refrain from trading until clear pattern will emerge.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair has hit extension at 138.70/80 levels and has surged beyond 139.50 for now. It is recommended to book profits on the remaining long positions taken earlier and remain flat for now. Resistance is seen at 140.30, followed by 141.30 and higher while support is seen at 137.00, followed by 135.00 and lower respectively. The pair could possibly look to reverse from the current levels but a bearish signal confirmation is awaited. The pair has hit fibonacci 0.786 resistance level at 139.75 for now. A bearish reversal signal confirmation would bring back bears into action.

Trading recommendations:

Book full profits on long positions taken earlier. Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is testing resistance at the 1.5350 levels as seen here. Please note that this region is also fibonacci 0.681 and past support turned resistance confluence. High probability remains that the pair could reverse from the current levels, hence recommendations are to remain short, risk is above 1.5450 levels. Support is seen at 1.5200, followed by 1.5100, 1.4975, while resistance is seen at 1.5450, followed by 1.5555 respectively. Bears are expected to regain control shortly, but a push through 1.5450 levels would certainly delay matters. Going below 1.5200 levels would accelerate the fall below 1.4975 in the sessions to come.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop above 1.5450, the target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver made yet another low at $16.35 levels yesterday barely hitting stops placed at $16.40 levels. Both precious metals are diverging at the moment (Silver is making a low while Gold is not). This could be an early indication of a major reversal. Support (interim) is at $16.00, followed by $15.60 on the weekly chart, while resistance is seen at $17.60, followed by $17.80/18.00, and higher respectively. It is recommended to remain flat for now and await for a bullish reversal/confirmation. Traders should refrain from going short on Silver at current levels. A break of $17.60 on the top side would confirm a reversal now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Retail Sales m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Unemployment Rate, and Italian Prelim CPI m/m. The US will also release the economic data such as the Core PCE Price Index m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2669.

Strong Resistance:1.2661.

Original Resistance: 1.2649.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2637.

Target Inner Area: 1.2607.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2577.

Original Support: 1.2565.

Strong Support: 1.2553.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2545.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the Household Spending y/y, Tokyo Core CPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, Unemployment Rate, Monetary Policy Statement, Housing Starts y/y, and BOJ Outlook Report. Besides,

the US will also release some economic data such as Core PCE Price Index m/m, Employment Cost Index q/q, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Chicago PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 109.88.

Resistance. 2: 109.66.

Resistance. 1: 109.45.

Support. 1: 109.18.

Support. 2: 108.97.

Support. 3: 108.75.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The USDX has reached the level of 86.01, where this instrument has a fractal formed as part of the development of the current higher high pattern. However, the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the level of 86.40 to move up to the resistance level of 86.75. But we should have caution because the USDX could make a breakout at the support level of 86.01, so you can resume later the bearish trend in the H4 chart. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought area.

H4 chart's resistance levels: 86.75 / 87.00

H4chart's support levels: 86.01 / 85.06

On the H1 chart, the USDX was able to touch the resistance level of 86.40, but quickly, this instrument made a pullback to that area. Now, this pattern is forming a lower low below the resistance level of 86.17. However, the USDX would be performing corrective movements in favor of the current bullish trend in this instrument, but there is still the possibility that the USDX tries a breakout at the support level of 85.95 and falling to the level of 85.93. The MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 86.17 / 86.40

H1 chart's support levels: 85.95 / 85.73

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.27, take profit is at 85.03, and stop loss is at 85.49.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The GBP/USD pair is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.6004. This pair could fall in the coming hours to the support level of 1.5951, while this currency pair could make a bullish retracement above the resistance level of 1.6051. If successful, the next target would be the bearish trend line at the 1.6110 level which is close to the 200 SMA. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, and this pair is likely to move in range during the session today.

H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6004 / 1.6051

H4chart's support levels: 1.5951 / 1.5874

On the H1 chart, we can see that this pair has found strong support at the level of 1.5980, so that GBP/USD may begin to form a lower low pattern. If GBP/USD manages to support a breakout at that level, this pair could drop to the 1.5925 level, marking a new low. However, the GBP/USD pair still remains next to the SMA 200. The MACD indicator is entering the overbought zone.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6031 / 1.6075

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5980 / 1.5925

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5980, take profit is at 1.5925, and stop loss is at 1.6035.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Two weeks ago, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold before the bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged off price level of 1.2500.

The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) previously provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles.

The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) was targeted. However, bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840.

This allowed a bearish breakout off the current bullish channel to take place. This probably confirms a Flag continuation pattern. Initial daily target level would be located around 1.2490.

As expected, the EUR/USD pair remained under bearish pressure since no fixation above 1.2760-1.2780 took place on a daily basis.

A valid BUY position was previously suggested around the neckline of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern (price level of 1.2660).

Last week on Wednesday, the market expressed quite strong bearish momentum that pushed below the lower limit of the previous bullish channel.

Bears have successfully pushed towards price zone of 1.2600-1.2620 (the lower limit of the newly established bearish channel).

As anticipated, around this price zone, bullish recovery was expressed at retesting of the lower limit. Bulls were able to push towards 1.2760 ( the upper limit of the channel ).

Price levels around 1.2750 provided a valid SELL entry as suggested in previous articles.

Recommendation:

Price level of 1.2750 corresponded to the upper limit of the newly established channel depicted on the chart.

A valid SELL entry was anticipated around 1.2730-1.2760. It's running in profits now. Stop Loss can be lowered to 1.2700 to offside some risk.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD remains in downtrend from 1.1385, the rise from 1.1121 would possibly be consolidation of the downtrend. Further decline is possible, and next target would be at 1.1090 area. Resistance is at 1.1265, only break above this level will signal completion of the downtrend, then further rise to test 1.1385 resistance could be seen.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF's upward movement from 0.9370 extended to as high as 0.9610. Further rise to test 0.9687 resistance could be expected. Support levels are at 0.9515, and 0.9440, only break below these levels could trigger another fall to 0.9300 zone.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY stays in the upward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 105.32. As long as the channel support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 109.70 area. Key support is at 107.60, only break below this level could signal completion of the uptrend.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 0.8642 and 0.8910. The sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9401, as long as 0.8910 resistance holds, another fall to 08400 area is still possible. Only break above 0.8910 resistance could signal completion of the downtrend.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.5874 and 1.6226. As long as 1.6226 resistance hold, the sideways movement could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.6524, another fall to 1.5600 area could be expected after consolidation. On the upside, a break of 1.6226 resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.5874 already, then further rise to 1.6400 area could be seen.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - October 31, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD's downward movement from 1.2867 extended to as low as 1.2547. Further decline to test 1.2500 support could be expected, a breakdown below this level will signal resumption of the downtrend from 1.3700 (Jul 1 high), then next target would be at 1.2200 area. Resistance levels are at 1.2665 and 1.2770, only break above these levels could trigger another rise to 1.3000 area.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 108.97 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.98 versus 85.41 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of its monthly bond-buying program and delivered a slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement as it offered a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. labor market and economy. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.321% versus 2.284% late Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales, selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.28% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at 1,982.3 overnight) as the Fed's latest policy statement renewed concerns over higher interest rates.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.30 and the second target at 109.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.55. The pivot point is at 108.35.

Resistance levels:

109.30

109.55

109.90

Support levels:

107.90

107.55

107.35

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a three-week low 0.7766 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the less-hawkish-than-expected Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy statement as the central bank kept interest rates on hold at 3.5%. The RBNZ has shifted, removing the mild tightening bias and implicitly making the next policy move open-ended, Citigroup says. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive USD sentiment and Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid the subdued investor risk appetite. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment:

Daily is chart mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is reverted to bearish mode, bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7805. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7760. The pivot point stands at 0.7880. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7810 and the second target at 0.7855.

Resistance levels:

0.7910

0.7955

0.7990

Support levels:

0.7805

0.7760

0.7735

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EUR/NZD analysis for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6234 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). We can observe that price went into bearish corrective phase according to the previous strong bullish leg so I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bearish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6095 (held successful). According to the 4H time frame, we can observe potential end of a beairhs corrective phase (abcd), which is a sign that selling looks risky. Be careful when selling EUR/NZD since we may see further upward movement. Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows). According to the daily chart, we got weak supply in a volume below the average.

Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6250

R2: 1.6312

R3: 1.6412

Support levels:

S1: 1.6050

S2: 1.5988

S3: 1.5888

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test

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Gold: analysis for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,199.56 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,210.00 is broken, which is a sign that the price go to test the level of 1,183.00 (swing low like support). According to the daily time frame, we got demand in a volume below average, which caused the price to start with donward movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,206.00 (currently on the test) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,210.00. Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,229.65

R2: 1,234.89

R3: 1,243.37

Support levels

S1: 1,212.69

S2: 1,207.45

S3: 1,198.97

Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since price has broke Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/USD pair drops below 1.2600 (interim) support, but is still expected to carve a higher bottom above 1.2500. The pair is testing fibonacci 0.786 support around 1.2560 levels as seen here. A bullish reversal here would still drag prices higher up to the 1.3100 mark in the sessions to come. On the flip side, a drop below 1.2500 would delay matters further and bring in bears to regain control. Support is now at 1.2500 on the 4H chart view while resistance is seen at 1.2760, followed by 1.2850/1.2900 levels respectively. It is still recommended to initiate long positions now (1.2570/80), risk remains below 1.2500.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop below 1.2500, the target is 1.3120.

Good luck!

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#USDX Technical analysis for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index has held support yesterday. After the FOMC minutes, the greenback strengthened and broke above resistance levels signaling the start of a new upward move that could push the index towards 91. The trend is bullish as long as price is above 85.15.

Red line = broken resistance

Black line=broken trend line resistance

The Dollar index has bounced strongly off the Ichimoku cloud support after making a low at 85.20. The Dollar index has managed to hold above the cloud support and has also showed signs of strength by breaking above 86. The trend is bullish and this trend reversal could signal the start of a new upward move in the Dollar index. For this to hold, the Dollar index should not break below 85.20.

The Dollar index is progressing as expected from the bullish flag break out as we noted several days ago, producing a new higher high and a higher low, confirming the bullish trend. Resistance at 86.75 should now be tested and broken, otherwise we might be in danger of seeing a pull back towards 84.

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Gold Technical analysis for October 30, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has broken short-term support at $1,221 and price is moving towards our short-term target of $1,200 already. My longer-term view remains bearish targeting $1,050. Important resistance for a trend change is the $1,240.

Red line=broken support

Gold price has made a lower low and remains below the Ichimoku cloud. Next support is at $1,200 and at $1,180. This support area is strong and could produce a bigger bounce towards $1,265 but I would again prefer not to take any bullish trades and only look for levels to sell Gold. The short-term resistance is at $1,225 and at $1,240. Breaking above $1,240 will give me $1,265 as the 1st target. The trend however remains bearish and I continue to prefer short positions.

The weekly chart remains fully bearish as price has now moved away of the critical resistance at $1,237 that was needed to be broken on a weekly basis in order for Gold price to bounce higher towards $!,265 or even $1,300. The bearish weekly formation combined with the rejection at the Ichimoku cloud, continues to support my longer-term bearish view that eventually we will break $1,180.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 30 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6263

R2: 1.6240

R1: 1.6211

Current spot: 1.6143

S1: 1.6133

S2: 1.6099

S3: 1.6055

Technical summary:

Red wave ii ended at 1.6003 (dangerous close to our stop at 1.6000). The rally of the 1.6003 low is clearly impulsive in character and after a small correction to 1.6099 the next impulsive rally higher towards 1.6498 should be seen. Only an unexpected decline below 1.6003 will invalidate the immediately bullish count and call for the alternative count, showing and expanded diagonal developing, but the odds for this possibility is very very low now.

Trading recommendation:

We are long in EUR from 1.6065 with stop placed at 1.6000. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6099 with the same stop at 1.6000.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 30 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.72

R2: 137.52

R1: 137.42

Current spot: 137.41

S1: 137.22

S2: 136.90

S3: 136.70

Technical summary:

The correction in wave B ended slightly higher than the ideal 137.82, with a top at 138.03. Now, we will be looking for a break below support at 136.56 as the final confirmation, that wave B did indeed end at 138.03 and wave C lower to 130.99, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A. Short term, we will be looking for resistance at 137.53 to protect the upside for the decline to 136.59 and below.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 137.70 with stop place at 138.10. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.52 with the same stop at 138.10

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