Fundamental Analysis For November 15, 2012 Trend News

During today’s American session a slight recovery of the euro was observed. It could last through weekend.

Today’s highlight is the fact that the yen slumped to the lowest in more than 6 months against dollar. The yen dropped 1.4% to 81.39 per dollar at 8:47 ET. It depreciated 1.7% to 103.92 per euro. Europe’s single currency rose 0.2% to 1.2762 per dollar.

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EUR/USD Buy above Fractal - For November 15, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Yesterday the euro had a moderate rise, keeping the figure technique we were talking about. It is likely to rise to the level of 1.2830. There are resistance and weekly moving average of 200 periods. Our medium-term outlook remains bearish below 1.2850. At this time it is not recommended to sell, as there is a struggle between buyers and sellers, as the market could take a break to 1.2830, and then resume its downward path. You can wait for this level to sell strongly, or buy now at low leverage.

As you can see from the chart, the euro found support above 1.2643, forming a leg. It is likely to form the second leg for this level again, before bouncing upwards. On the other hand, a close above the daily fractal of 1.2760 increases the odds of a bullish move higher.

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GBP/USD Rebound - For November 15, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The British pound is sliding slowly downward without a sustained rebound. Now it is a few pips below the 200 day moving average periods, which gives a bearish tone for the next few weeks. When you see these scenarios you should be very cautious, as the pair may bounce without an apparent reason, and you can keep orders against it.

Therefore, we recommend buying above the 200 EMA (blue) above 1.5850, because we are waiting for a rebound. If you want to sell, you can do it at the weekly resistance levels.

At a fundamental level next week there will be several important events both in the United States and the European Union, which may influence the currencies.

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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for November 15, 2012 Trend News

USD/JPY Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the USD/JPY pair was trading in an upward move, corrective wave A (coloured green) of the bigger wave Y (coloured red) was developing. During the Wednesday’s European session we could observe strong ascending movement that bring this major pair to the 80.00 level. Therefore, during the New York session the USD/JPY pair continued trading in a bullish mood and the price reached a new 5 days high at 80.31 level. We can consider this move as the end of the 3 wave (coloured purple).Today this currency pair is trading around 80.90 level and we are expecting to see the price lower when development of the corrective 4 wave starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 80.28 (38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use resistance at 81.20 level as stop loss.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 79.05 (S2) 79.40 (S1) 79.62 (PP) 79.97 (R1) 80.32 (R2) 80.54 (R3) 80.89



Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 81.00 with stop loss 81.20 and take profit at 80.28 are recommended.

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Silver Consolidates Further. Expect Breakout Higher Trend News

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

Speaking about silver, the structure remains unchanged at the moment. The only fact is consolidation/retracement is taking bit longer. Support region is around 31.70-32.00 levels, while resistance region begins from 33.30/40 levels at the moment. It is recommended to keep buying on dips and also please note to book partial profits at each resistance level. A break higher than 33.00 level, would confirm a bullish breakout and aggressive/further buying can be done. Higher from here on.

Trading Recommendations:

Hold on to long positions taken earlier on, buy on dips, stop at 30.50, and target open.

Good Luck!

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Gold Consolidation Continues. Bullish Break Expected Soon Trend News

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

The yellow metal consolidates further. The support band is around 1,715/20 levels, while resistance band remains at 1,735/40 levels. It is recommended to buy aggressively on a break higher 1,735 level. Support region extends till 1,700/1,695 levels and further buying is recommended there. Further resistance is lined up through 1,750/60, 1,785, and 1,790 levels and bulls are expected to break past those comfortably. Higher from here on.

Trading Recommendations:

Hold on to long positions taken earlier, buy on dips, stop at 1,680, and target open.

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EurJpy Rallies Further. Hold Long Positions and Reduce Risk Trend News

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

The single currency pair rallies and runs through the resistance region rapidly. It is recommended to keep buying on dips from here on. Intermediary support is at 102.00 level and further down at 100.00. Resistance will be strong around 103.50 level now; it looks like the bulls are determined to break that, before a meaningful break/pullback. Look to buy on dips from here on, since further higher levels are possible when 103.60 is broken. Higher now.

Trading Recommendations:

Hold on to long positions, buy on dips, move stop from 100.00 to 101.25 (or breakeven), and target open.

Good Luck!

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GbpChf Downside Accelerates. Hold On To Short Positions Trend News

Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

As it was expected, yesterday the single currency pair accelerated downside breaking 1.4950 level. It is recommended to hold short positions taken earlier and consider selling further rallies as well. Intermediary support is around 1.48 and 1.47 levels respectively; while resistance is placed at 1.5150 at the moment. The single currency pair is expected to accelerate further downside but on rallies. Please note that chasing prices should not be the strategy, short positions should be taken on rallies. Look lower from here on.

Trading Recommendations:

Hold on short positions taken earlier, sell rallies, stop at 1.5150/60, and target open.

Good Luck!

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