Technical analysis of Silver for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around the level of $14.65 after reaching highs around $14.79 yesterday. The metal is seen to be stalling around the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement of a drop between $16.35 and $13.63. The metal could be preparing for a resumption of its overall downtrend from the current levels. Please note that the trend-line resistance is seen around $15.25. It is recommended to initiate short positions with risk seen at $15.60. Immediate interim resistance is seen at the level of $14.80 while support is seen at $14.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now with stop at $15.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Yesterday, gold rallied to measured extensions towards towards the levels of $1,136.00/40.00. The metal hit the level of $1,145.00 before pulling back lower again. Please note that the yellow metal is hitting resistance around Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of a drop between the levels of $1,191.00 and $1,046.00. Also, the trend-line resistance is being tested at the moment around $1,142.00/45.00, and a bearish response is expected. It is now recommended to initiate short positions with risk around $1,148.50. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,145.00 (interim), while support is seen at $1,137.00.

Trading recommendations:

Stay short now with stop at $1,148.50, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

A corrective decline from 1.7271 continues to grind slowly lower and a breakout below support at 1.6564 calls for a corrective move closer to 1.6370 and possibly even slightly lower to 1.6300 before this correction is over and the next impulsive rally takes place.

Only a direct breakout above resistance at 1.6681 will indicate that the correction has already completed and the next impulsive rally higher is developing towards 1.7271 and higher.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop was hit for a loss. We will be looking for a EUR-buying opportunity near 1.6370.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 4, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Wave summary:

We have evaluated our two possible counts and have decided that this count is the most favorable one. This count shows that wave [C] or [iii] is already developing for a long-term rally above 149.55 closer to 170.00.

However, in the the short term, we are likely to see a correction slightly below the area of 128.60 - 129.30 before the next rally higher. We expect the resistance line from 141.04 to be broken. This will also trigger an inverse S/H/S bottom for an anticipated rally to 138.31.

As this corrective decline is minor wave two, it could be deeper than 128.60.

Trading recommendation:

We will look for a EUR-buying opportunity near 128.60.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news on the French 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, and ECB Economic Bulletin is due to be released. The US will publish economic data on the Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1165.

Strong Resistance:1.1159.

Original Resistance: 1.1148.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1137.

Target Inner Area: 1.1111.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1085.

Original Support: 1.1074.

Strong Support: 1.1063.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1057.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data, but the US will deliver some economic on the Natural Gas Storage, Factory Orders m/m, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Non-Farm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 118.65.

Resistance. 2: 118.42.

Resistance. 1: 118.19.

Support. 1: 117.91.

Support. 2: 117.68.

Support. 3: 117.44.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

In H1 chart, USDX saw a huge decline below the 200 SMA and now it's expected to start to form a lower low pattern. However, if the US Index achieves a rebound at current stage, then it can retrace towards the resistance level of 97.42, which was the significant low made during the December 11th session. MACD indicator is at negative territory and supporting the idea.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.21 / 97.42

H1 chart's support levels: 96.94 / 96.65

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 96.94, take profit is at 96.65, and stop loss is at 97.25.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 04, 2016 Market Analysis Review

GBP/USD has been trading in a bullish mode and the Wednesday's session added some strength to the pair. Currently, the Cable is trying to perform a retracement towards the latest support formed around the 1.4535 level, because of the huge bullish momentum that it gained. However, our bullish outlook remains the same, as long as the 200 SMA is pointing to the upside.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4644 / 1.4687

H1 chart's support levels: 1.4588 / 1.4535

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4644, take profit is at 1.4687, and stop loss is at 1.4597.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

On December 30, a significant bearish rejection took place around the level of 0.6840 (daily resistance level) similar to what happened previously on October 23.

Moreover, a daily closure below 0.6750 allowed a quick bearish decline to occur initially towards the level of 0.6500, which was broken to the downside as well.

However, the price levels of 0.6400-0.6350 constituted a significant support zone. Hence, a strong bullish rejection was expressed on January 20 (inverted head and shoulders pattern).

Since January 26, bullish persistence above 0.6500 was mandatory to keep pushing the NZD/USD pair towards higher bullish targets. However, temporary bearish rejection has been expressed around 0.6550 for almost two weeks which led to the depicted consolidation range.

On January 28, the depicted support level of 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 has been executed earlier today.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) is needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets. The nearest bullish target is currently located around 0.6700.

On the other hand, another bearish closure below 0.6550 brings the NZD/USD pair inside the depicted consolidation range again (between 0.6400 and 0.6550).

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit towards the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where evident bearish rejection was expected (a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) remains a significant key level to be watched for price reaction during the current week's consolidations. It offered a valid sell entry on a bullish pullback that took place yesterday.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.3370-1.3400 remains a significant support zone to be watched for valid buy entries if enough bearish momentum is maintained below the mentioned key level (1.4100) and prominent weekly support (1.4000).

Trading recommendations:

As we expected, two valid sell entries were suggested around 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) and around 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%). Both positions are running in profits. S/L should now be lowered to 1.4120 to secure our profits, while the next T/P levels remain projected at 1.3800 and 1.3650.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the zone of 1.3370-1.3400 for a valid buy entry. S/L should be located below 1.3320.

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Global macro overview for 03/02/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 03/02/2016:

The New Zealand employment data were released overnight and the most important aspects of the data were better than analysts had expected. The unemployment rate has sharply decreased to 5.3% whereas the market expectations were way worse: an increase to 6.1% from 6,0% a month before. This was the lowest jobless rate since March 2009. Moreover, the employment change posted a gain of 0.9%, edging above the estimate of 0.8%. It is worth noting that the New Zealand economy had been badly hurt by the slowdown in China's economy (the New Zealand biggest trading partner), when GDP, PMI, and other important figures from China painted a rather grim picture of future of the world's second biggest economy. In conclusion, we can remind the RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler's remarks from his yesterday's speech regarding an outlook for the New Zealand further economic developement: "if the concerns deepen around the global economy growth prospects and its effect on New Zealand, further policy easing may be needed over the coming year".

Let's now take a look at the daily technical chart of the NZD/USD pair. We can clearly see the strong recovery in this market as ts had broken above 50% Fibo level and now it is approaching the 61%Fibo level at 0.6678. In that case, the level of 0.6579 will be an important technical support and traders should keep thier eye on the next technical resistance just above the 61%Fibo mark at the level of 0.6681. If there is no signs of a reversal from this level, then bulls might try to test the local swing high at the level of 0.6896.

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Global macro overview for 03/02/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 03/02/2016:

The ADP Employment report was released today and it was better than analysts had expected. A change in the number of newly employed people in the US was at 205K vs. the forecast of 195K, which seems to be a good result, but is still lower than the previous month reading of 267K. The ADP report is a good predictor of the NFP report that will be released on Friday: expectations for the NFP number are lower than last month, so an upside surprise is still possible. Please notice that strong numbers from the US labor market helped convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, but employment numbers have been lukewarm in early 2016. In conclusion, investors might expect the employment numbers to be closely monitored by the Fed, which will have to decide if the economy is ready for another rate hike in March.

Let's take a look at the technical chart of the EUR/USD pair after the ADP data release. A clear breakout above the dashed trend line in the H4 time frame might indicate that bulls are currently in control of the market. Nevertheless, there is one more important technical resistance to be violated: the area between the levels of 1.0992 and 1.1059. If the daily candlestick closes above the top of this zone, bullish trend will resume at least in the some short time.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.6518 in a high volume. Anyway, the price reached our intraday take profit level (resistance) at 1.6875 and then rejected strongly downwards. In the 4H time frame, I saw a test of the strong support level at 1.6515 (swing low, Fibonacci expansion 61.8%). If the price breaks the level of 1.6515, we may expect potential testing of 1.6260 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) and the level of 1.5830 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). The intraday trend is downward.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6875

R2: 1.6945

R3: 1.7060

Support levels:

S1: 1.6650

S2: 1.6580

S3: 1.6465

Trading recommendations: the intraday trend is downard. So, watch for potential breakout of 1.6515 to confirm further downward continuation.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the depicted level at 1.5550 trying to reach the zone of 1.5900 where the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was formed.

On November 2015, a bearish engulfing weekly candlestick closed below the level of 1.5200 (the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern). This supported the bearish side of the market in the long term.

Extensive bearish pressure has been applied to the demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360. Both of them were broken to the downside.

Shortly after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4220, evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, the previous two weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4220 indicating strong bullish demand.

That is why the zone of 1.4360-1.4220 remains a significant demand zone for the GBP/USD pair. A bullish engulfing weekly candlestick is being expressed as depicted on the chart.

Bullish persistence above 1.4220 and 1.4360 is mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target is seen at 1.4615.

During 2015, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.5770 and 1.5230 where a bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was formed. Since then, the market has been trending downwards within the depicted bearish channel.

Few weeks ago, the level of 1.4950 was broken to the downside, constituting a significant supply level.

Daily persistence below 1.4800 (the lower limit of the depicted bearish channel) favored a bearish decline towards 1.4680 and 1.4610 where previous prominent bottoms are located on the GBP/USD daily chart.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair looks oversold as it moved further below the prominent demand levels of 1.4620 and 1.4360.

That is why any sign of a bullish rejection around the demand level of 1.4220 was considered as a valid buy signal.

Bullish persistence above 1.4360 is mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target is projected towards 1.4615.

Trading Recommendation:

In our previous articles, traders were advised to take a valid buy entry when GBP/USD bulls managed to achieve a daily closure above the level of 1.4220. It is already running in profits now.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.4440, 1.4500, and 1.4615 while S/L should be advanced to 1.4270.

Those traders who missed out on the initial trade can have another buy entry near the level of 1.4360 when retesting occurs.

T/P levels would be located at 1.4470, 1.4550, and 1.4610.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

On January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

On March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570 (reached in January 1997). A month later, strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

The April candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected strong bearish rejection around the level of 1.1450.

As mentioned above, the long-term projected target will still be seen at 0.9450 if the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted demand level of 1.0570.

On August 2015, the EUR/USD pair looked overbought as the market spiked above the level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Shortly after, the intraday supply zone of 1.1360-1.1400 produced significant bearish pressure.

A bearish breakout of the depicted uptrend was performed on October 23. This enhanced a long-term bearish scenario with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0600.

On November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the recent bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.0800 and 1.1000.

During the last few weeks, the level of 1.1000 was considered the significant supply level to offer valid sell entries. Moreover, a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was formed as depicted on the chart. That is why, the current bullish pullback towards 1.1000 should be considered for selling the EUR/USD pair.

The previous bearish closure below 1.0800 (the reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the depicted reversal pattern. An estimated bearish target is located at 1.0620.

Today, a bearish closure below 1.0800 (neckline of the depicted reversal pattern) is needed to allow a further bearish decline to occur towards 1.0730, 1.0620, and 1.0570.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.0830 hinders the further bearish decline. Hence, another bullish pullback towards 1.1000 would be expected.

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Daily analysis of gold for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Gold price fluctuates near the key resistance of 1130.60, which represents 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last bearish wave. As we mentioned yesterday, we are waiting for bearish rebound to resume an overall bearish trend after approaching the main bearish channel's resistance that appears on chart. The price needs to break 1114.50 followed by 1098.40 to reinforce the expectations of continuing bearish bias with the next target extended to a recent low of 1046.20. Taking into consideration that a breakout at the level of 1140.50 will stop the negative overview and stimulate recovery in the short-term basis to target 1182.80 followed by 1200.00.

We expect a trading range between the support level of 1100.00 and the resistance level of 1140.50.

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Gold analysis for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways at the level of $1,127.00. An intraday short-term trend is upward. In the daily time frame, I found a neutral bar but the volume is still above the average. The demand still presents in the market. So, selling looks risky. We can see a test at the 200 SMA. Also, the pair is trading well above all key MA`s (SMA 50,100,150,200) in the H4 time frame. The first take-profit level is reached at $1,134.00 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, daily SMA 200). If the price breaks the level of $1,134.00, we may expect potential testing of $1,182.00). In the M30, I found a trading range between the support level of $1,120.00 and the resistance of $1,130.60. Since Gold is in the uptrend according to the lower frame, watch for the potential upward breakout to confirm the further upward continuation.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,130.60

R2: 1,132.60

R3: 1,135.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,124.00

S2: 1,122.20

S3: 1,119.00

Trading recommendations:Trading recommendations: watch for potential breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

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Daily analysis of Silver for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Silver price keeps moving within tight track. As long as the price is between 13.65 support and 14.40 resistance around Fibonacci 23.6%, the sideways range will remain dominant in the intraday trading. The price needs to breach one of these levels to detect its next targets clearly on the short-term basis. Importantly, breaking 14.40 resistance will lead to further bullish correction that targets 14.67 followed by 15.30 levels mainly, while breaking 13.65 level will put the price under the main negative pressure again with the first the target at 13.00 and the next one at 12.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 13.80 support and 14.67 resistance.

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver was trading at $14.38/40 levels near Fibonacci 0.618 resistance, having decreased from $14.55 to $14.15. The metal is expected to drop lower towards $14.00 before resuming rally. However, if the price breaks through the $14.60 level, it would nullify the above bearish count. Therefore, it is recommended to remain flat for now and watch for buying opportunities at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at $14.25 while resistance lies at $14.56. The metal can find support at $14.00 which coincides with Fibonacci 0.618 ratio.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now and watch for buying opportunities at $14.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold was trading at $1,128.00/29.00 levels at the moment of publication, facing resistance around $1,130.00/31.00 levels. The metal is also forming a pennant at current levels in 4H chart which is not seen here. Importantly, a major resistance is seen at $1,136.00 in the form of Fibonacci 0.618 ratio. Besides, the resistance line is seen passing around the same region. Therefore, it is recommended to remain flat and watch for selling opportunities at higher levels or remain short with risk at $1,132.50 for now. Immediate support is seen at $1,127.50 while resistance lies at $1,131.00/50.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short with stop at $1,132.50 and plan to sell at higher levels if prices reach them.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• On the one-hour chart, the USD/CHF pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.0123 and 1.0154. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.0154, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.0154. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0123/1.0154. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.0154) with the first target at the level of 1.0224. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.0224. We should see the pair climbimg towards the double top (1.0255) to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.0123.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 03, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• As expected the NZD/USD pair has kept moving downwards from the level of 0.6557. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6557 (this level of 0.6557 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 0.6461. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6546 followed by 0.6600, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.6503. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6600 and 0.6503; for that we expect a range of 97 pips (0.6600 - 0.6503). If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6600, the market will decline further to 0.6546. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.6503 with a view to test the daily pivot point. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.6605 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

Intraday technical levels:

• R3: 0.6642
• R2: 0.6600
• R1: 0.6546
• PP: 0.6503
• S1: 0.6450
• S2: 0.6408
• S3: 0.6354

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USDX technical analysis for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

The US dollar index has been trading sideways for some time now and still holding above the trading range support at 98.40-98.50. Resistance at 100 is still not broken, so I believe the market is waiting for some direction from the Fed.

The price is now below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart but still inside the trading range between 98.40 and 100. The price is also trapped between the 61.8 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally. A trend is clearly sideways and there is no need to take unwarranted risks trying to guess what will happen next. Patience is needed to wait for a clear breakout signal to be given.

Blue line - support

Red lines - bearish divergence signs

Yellow lines - projection if support fails

In the daily chart, the price is still above the cloud and above the horizontal support of 98.40. If this support fails to hold we should expect the price to move at least towards 97.10. Resistance is at 99.10 for the daily chart and next at 100. Traders should better wait for a breakout before opening any position.

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Gold technical analysis for February 3, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Gold price climbed to a new high yesterday, but momentum indicators did not follow. I believe we are near an at least short-term top. This will be confirmed once we breakout below $1,120.

Blue lines - short-term bullish channel

Black lines - medium-term bullish channel.

The price is above the Ichimoku cloud support which is found at $1,116. Channel support is found at $1,120. As long as the price is above these levels, a trend will remain bullish. However, the price formation combined with the oscillator overbought levels makes me believe we should exit longs and wait for a downward move.

On a weekly basis, the gold price remains inside a long-term black downward sloping wedge below the Ichimoku cloud, but it has broken above the weekly kijun-sen resistance (yellow line indicator). However, we should wait to see if this week closes above the kijun-sen. Strong weekly resistance is found at $1,150, so this level cannot be ruled out for a final upward move.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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