AUD/USD - Rebound - daily strategy for July 03, 2013 Trend News

The Australian Dollar reached the expected goal at the level of 0.9053. This level should be consolidated before a new movement, either upward or downward. The strong area of support is at 0.9012, while the dynamic resistance, which is under the downward pressure, is at 0.9390. These levels are the Aussie’s range levels for the next few days, given that technical momentum indicator is in negative territory as well as on May 17, it is more likely to go upward as part of profit-making to 0.92 levels. Therefore, we recommend buying at current price levels and wait for the recovery of the Australian dollar.

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Has Dollar Index topped? Trend News

The Dollar Index is pulling back down after buying interest in EUR/USD has raised prices from 1.2923 lows to 1.2960. Additionally, the decline in the Index is also influenced by the selling pressures in USD/JPY that has reversed from 100.86 to 99.40. The index is now trading near 83.42 just above its short-term support.

For bullish trend to continue, prices should not fall below 82.95. However, it is most probable for the index to find support between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as shown above. These levels are the most probable for a short-term bottom. Moreover, the 34 candle MA is also supporting prices at the 83.40 level. Our view is that we could see the support levels being tested and the upward trend to resume once again.

Long positions for the short term are favored. The stop loss should be the 82.95. If that level is broken, the short term sequence of higher highs and higher lows will be disrupted. If we are correct about the bullish potential, the short-term target for long positions will be 84.20-45 level. If not, we are going to get stopped at 82.95.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 131.12

R2: 130.86

R1: 130.69

Current Spot: 130.55

S1: 130.30

S2: 129.83

S3: 129.38

Technical overview:

We have seen a rally to 131.12 as the high, which is just below our ideal target for red wave c at 131.27. We think there is a very high possibility that the red wave c and black wave b have topped and the black wave c down to at least 124.96 has taken over. However, in order to confirm that the black wave c is developing, we need a break below 130.30 and more importantly a break below 129.83. As long as support at 130.30 is protecting the downside, we could see one last swing higher towards 131.27, but we find it more likely to find resistance at 130.69, which will protect the upside for the break below 130.30.

Trading recommendation:

We have missed our entry to sell EUR at 131.15 with just 3 smal pips. We will keep our sell order at 131.15 just in case we see one more swing higher to 131.27 and we will place a EUR-sell order at 130.25 (one order done cancels the other). We will place our stop at 132.60.

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