Thursday 30 January 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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USD/CAD Elliott Wave
For the last few sessions, the USD/CAD pair has started to go lower, corrective wave [x] (coloured green) or wave [i] (coloured green) has started developing. In the USD/CAD 1-hour chart we can observe a descending movement from the 1.1198 level, possible end of the [y] wave (coloured green), and we are still waiting for a fresh sell signal when the price breaks the lower trend line. Aggressive traders can already try small short position against the high at the 1.1198 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave X2 should retrace 50-61.8% of wave Y, we can define potential targets measuring wave Y with take profit at 1.0895-1.0825 (50-61.8% of wave Y). The RSI indicator is showing strong bullish divergence that confirms a possible end of the [y] wave.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0995, (S2) 1.1036, (S1) 1.1094, (PP) 1.1135, (R1) 1.1193, (R2) 1.1234, (R3) 1.1292.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin a downward movement. That is why short positions at the level of 1.1150 with stop loss at 1.1200 and take profit at 1.0895 are recommended.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last forecast, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, we are still tracking wave iii (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (v) (colorued red) as the best possible structure, but we are going to discuss an alternate count since we are close to our invalidation levels today. In the AUD/USD 1-hour chart we are tracking wave c of iii wave from the 0.8825 level and while the price stays below this high, we are going to look for more bearish movements in this commodity currency. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave C should retrace 100% of wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8595 (100% of wave A).


Alternate count: we ended the wave i (couloured blue) at the 0.8658 and pullback that started from 0.8709 is a part of the ii wave, if this is correct, we should see one more push higher toward the 0.8920 area before the price turns lower again, but in this case we also want to be short against the high at the 0.9090 level.


Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8633, (S2) 0.8679, (S1) 0.8728, (PP) 0.8774, (R1) 0.8823, (R2) 0.8869, (R3) 0.8918.


Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short position at the level of 0.8900 with stop loss at 0.9090 and take profit at 0.8595 are recommended.


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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Yesterday, the pair failed to break the Support level of 168.50 to reverse its bearish movement and took a slightly upward move. As seen in today's H4 chart, it is currently trading below the Resistance level of 169.50. Given that, the pair continues its bullish movement and closes 4H above the Resistance level of 169.50, it would be another opportunity for more bullish signals with first target few pips below the Resistance level of 170.00, then we should wait for breaking above this Resistance level to get more bullish signals towards the Resistance level of 170.75 as a second target.


Resistance and Support levels: R3 (170.75), R2(170.00), R1(169.50), S1 (168.50), S2 (167.75), S3(167.10).


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GOLD: analysis for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,250.58 on higher volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion levels from the most recent swings and I got FE 61.8 % at price 1,251.00 (currently on the test) and FE 100 % at price 1,240.00. We can observe a rejection from our sub-major FR 61.8% and buying climax, which caused price to start downward movement. If the price breaks our FE 61.8 % (1,251.00) on high volume, we may see the testing of next down station around the prices of 1,243 (Major FR 38.2 %)- 1.2400 (FE 100 %). Buying gold looks risky since we are in short-and mid-term downtrend, and we also got finished the ABCD bullish corrective phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,269.91


R2: 1,274.49


R3: 1,281.90


Support levels:


S1: 1,255.09


S2: 1,250.51


S3: 1,243.10


Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful when buying and try to catch the bearish continuation phase.


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Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards. Just as we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6422 and tested level of 1.6721 on the high volume. We can observe that strong demand has entered the market at price 1.6515 which is good sign of bullish strength. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find next upper level and I got FE major 61.8 % at price 1.6800. There is a chance that we may see smaller bearish correction in reaction of very high volume so price may test area around the levels of 1.6535-1.6520, before bullish contunuation. Do not forget that EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend and selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks very risky, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6691


R2: 1.6756


R3: 1.6861


Support levels:


S1: 1.6481


S2 : 1.6416


S3: 1.6311


Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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The bulls have managed to reach new price levels (around 1.1180) that haven't been reached since 2009.


Temporarily, USD failed to keep its gains against CAD, and the USD/CAD pair was pushed to the downside until Monday when another bullish impulse was initiated on retesting of 1.1030.


The next prominent resistance level is located around 1.1230 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level of the bearish movement that had been extending since March 2009 and ended in July 2011.


The pair has a significant support zone between 1.0700 and 1.0750 representing the upper limit of consolidation range that got broken this month.


Re-testing of this zone will probably provide a valid BUY entry for the mid-term.


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A bullish breakout above 1.0720 (previous triple-top resistance) took place during the first week of January.


Last week on Wednesday, the pair showed obvious bearish rejection (inverted hammer daily candlestick) then this week on Monday, another bullish impulse was initiated on retesting of 1.1030 resulting in a daily bullish engulfing candlestick. The pair is probably heading towards 1.1230 in the intermediate term.


A prominent support zone is located at 1.0960-1.0900. Any further retesting may offer a valid BUY entry with SL as a daily closure below 1.0900.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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GBP/USD had been moving within a wide-ranged price zone extending between 1.5900 and 1.6250 until November 27 when a bullish breakout took place.


Since then, the bulls have been defending 1.6250 as a prominent support. Another successful bullish retesting took place in mid-December that pushed the pair again to the upside.


Based on this bullish breakout, the GBP/USD pair had a projection target around 1.6630 which acts as a prominent resistance for the pair.


As suggested, the bearish reversal was initially expressed at retesting of 1.6660 on January 24.


Bullish momentum manifested itself through the current week's consolidations until bearish rejection was expressed on retesting of 1.6620 on Tuesday. The pair declined about 160 pips reaching a prominent support level located at 1.6450.


Bullish reversal off 1.6450 will probably push the pair towards 1.6490-1.6500 before further bearish movement takes place. Four-hour stabilization below price level of 1.6500 is mandatory for further decline to take place.


4H closure above 1.6500 probably indicates another bullish impulse towards 1.6600 then probably 1.6666.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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A breakout above the previous resistance level of 1.3450 allowed the bulls to push within the bullish channel to hit higher levels around 1.3650 then 1.3750.


Later on, obvious bearish rejection was expressed at 1.3850 (failing to reach 100% Fibonacci Expansion at 1.3904). Instead, breakdown of the depicted bullish channel took place on January 2.


This led to the recent bearish movement that almost reached 1.3520.


After few days of consolidation around SMA-100, bullish impulse was initiated at 1.3520. This led to a long full-bullish engulfing daily candlestick.


On Friday, the bulls pushed towards the price levels around 1.3737 where strong bearish rejection was expressed resulting in two successive shooting star Daily candlesticks.


As expected, this indicated a corrective bearish movement towards 1.3525-1.3550 (where the depicted uptrend line and SMA-100 come to meet the pair). This price zone is already being approached during today's consolidations.


Price Zone of 1.3525-1.3550 will probably provide a valid BUY entry with SL as daily closure below 1.3500.


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Obvious bullish rejection took place off the level of 1.3520 which is an important key-level on an intraday basis (corresponding to previous price ranges established in December as well as the lower limit of the channel).


As expected, the pair remains moving within the depicted channel having a strong resistance located at the upper limit of the ongoing channel around 1.3700 (50% Fibonacci) then 1.3745 (61.8% Fibonacci Level).


Obvious bearish rejection was expressed at 1.3737 (few pips below 1.3745) resulting in 4H closure below 1.3700 (50% Fibonacci Level).


As expected, this applied further bearish pressure on the pair towards 1.3580 then 1.3530 which is being approached.


Fixation below the price level of 1.3630 (where SMA-100 comes to meet the pair) is mandatory to keep enough momentum to push towards 1.3500.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Bullish breakout above 1.6250 took place on November 27. The GBP/USD pair successfully achieved its projection target around 1.6600 which constitutes an Intraday resistance level.


Bullish movement took place above price level of 1.6600 reaching the recent high at 1.6666. However, bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off these high levels (1.6666) on Friday.


Consolidations around 1.6590-1.6600 showed indecision during the past two days. This indicated lack of bullish momentum. The pair was brought back below 1.6600 extending down to 1.6530 and 1.6460 as well.


The next DEMAND level is located at 1.6300 where a recent buttom was established on January 20.


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Bullish recovery was witnessed upon the previous testing of price zone of 1.6450-1.6500 corresponding to Demand zone between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.


As mentioned before, the GBP/USD pair remains neutral until it breaches 1.6666 or breaks down price level of 1.6450 (which is being tested today).


Fundamentally, Net lending cash to individuals increased more than expected in December indicating worsening of credit situation. This enhanced today's aggressive bearish movement.


Fixation below 1.6450 will probably apply further bearish pressure towards 1.6400 then 1.6320. However, price action should be watched cautiously as we may see a bullish correction off these levels.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 30, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The GBP/USD pair seems to have hit a major resistance at 1.6600 recently. It has turned back sharply since then and trading at sub 1.6500 at the moment. It is recommended to initiate short positions now, risk remains at 1.6600.


2. Resistance is fixed at 1.6600, while supports are spread through 1.6300, followed by 1.6200, 1.59 and lower respectively.


3. The structure reveals that a major top could have been in place at 1.6600 levels and prices are heading towards downside extensions at sub 1.6200.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate short positions, stop at 1.6600, target 1.6200.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis for USD/CHF for January 30, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. USD/CHF has broken the longer term down trend line as seen here. Furthermore, prices have just tested the 0.8900 level, which is resistance turned support now. An engulfing bullish signal is appearing. hence recommendations are to initiate long positions. Risk is below 0.8800.


2. Immediate resistance is the recent swing highs at 0.9150, while support is at 0.8900 (intermediary), followed by 0.8850/00 respectively.


3. The entire structure reveals that a major bottom has formed at 0.8800 now. The trend has turned bullish and just about to resume its next leg rally. Minimum expectations are 0.9300/0.9400 levels from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Long now, stop at 0.8800, target 0.9400


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. The USD/JPY has pulled back from its recent highs at 105.00 levels. Currently trading at 102.00, the pair is at fibonacci 0.382 support as seen here. It is recommended to initiate long positions now, risk remains at 101.00.


2. Immediate resistance is the recent swing highs at 105.00, while support is at 101.50, followed by 97.00/98.00 and 96.00 respectively.


3. Structure reveals that a bullish bounce from current levels of 102.00, could push prices higher above 105.00 at least.


Trading recommendations:


Long now, stop at 101.00, target open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 30, 2014. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


1. EUR/USD pair has been trading between 1.3740 and 1.3500 recently. As seen here, prices have turned back just shy of 1.3745/50, which is the 0.618 fibonacci retracement and resistance. It is recommended to initiate short positions now, risk remains at 1.3850.


2. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3750/1.3800, while support is at 1.3500 (intermediary), followed by 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3100 and lower.


3. The entire structure reveals that an important top could be in place at 1.3850 now and a major reversal might be underway. Extensions are pointing at 1.32 and 1.28 respectively.


Trading recommendations:


Short now, stop at 1.3850, target open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 30/01/2014 11:05 CET


The market had made the ending diagonal wave (v) blue and the overall impulsive structure looks completed. Currently the impulsive downside reaction should be in progress and the intraday support at the level of 1.1166 should be violated. Price target is technical support at the level of 1.1118 and this level is the key to the downside. On the other hand, any new high makes the last wave 5 red a little extended to the upside. Imminent corrective cycle seems to be unlikley in the near future anyway.


Support/Resistance:


1.1303 - WR2


1.1198 - Swing High


1.1193 - Intraday Resistance


1.1166 - Intraday Support


1.1118 - Technical Support


1.1061 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Breakout below the level of 1.1166 is needed to open the short positions with SL above the level of 1.1199 and TP at the level of 1.1118.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 30/01/2014 10:30 CET


The key level from yesterday has not been broken and higher prices had been rejected. After price had broken below 140.80 level the impulsive decline accelerated. Currently the five waves to the downside are almost done and the target for wave (v) blue is at the level of 138.56. Once this level is reached, the bounce is expected and test of the technical resistance at the level of 139.04 is anticipated.


Support/Resistance:


137.96 - WS1


138.56 - Wave (v) target level


139.04 - Intraday Resistance


140.17 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:


Short positions should be kept open until the target level is hit.


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#USDX Technical analysis for January 30, 2014 Trend News

The announcement by the Fed yesterday to continue with the tapering of the QE program has strengthened the Dollar. The short-term downward sloping resistance trend line was broken and the index reversed higher towards short-term resistance of 80.85.


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Short-term important support is 80.40. If this level fails to support the index then we will see prices reach the 80.10 level or even lower. If the index remains above 80.55, chances of reaching the important resistance of 81.15-25 are likely to increase.


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The daily chart continues to show how prices now have moved above the two Moving averages that are now crossed and have given a bullish signal. On a daily level as long as the index trade above 80.20-30 we should expect the highs near 81.30-40 to be tested. Breaking above the blue area as shown in the chart above, will increase the chances of reaching 82.50-83.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for January 30, 2014 Trend News

Gold price moved towards $1,270 yesterday but could break above the previous highs. Gold price got rejected and are now below $1,260 again. Although bulls are not able to break higher, despite the news from the Fed that another 10 billion dollars will be cut from the QE program, the support at $1,245-48 still holds.


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The purple upward sloping trend line remains valid as Gold price still trade above it as shown in the chart above. Yesterday's high near $1,270 could very well be wave C of our short-term elliott wave count as shown in the chart above. If this wave count is correct then today or at the latest tomorrow we should see Gold price move below $1,240. If we are wrong, then Gold price will hold above $1,245-48 which is the stop for bulls.


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The daily chart as shown above shows how bulls and bears fight for the trend. Important price level for bulls and bears is the $1,273-75 range as it is important resistance. However as long as Gold price trade above $1,245-48 bulls will feel comfortable. Bears on the other hand need to break below that support in order to test the important area of $1,230.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 1.6792


R2: 1.6763


R1: 1.6722


Current Spot: 1.6705


S1: 1.6660


S2: 1.6622


S3: 1.6592


Technical summary:


After an unexpected minor detour towards 1.6425 before we finally saw the expected red wave v rally higher towards 1.6792. Short term we expect a minor correction towards 1.6660 before the final rally higher towards 1.6792 to end red wave v and black wave iii.


In the long term we are looking for a new impulsive rally to above 1.6996 towards 1.7274 and higher. However the alternative count shows the possibility of a triangle could be building. If this is the case we should see wave D of the triangle end near 1.6900 and the followed by the final E wave towards 1.6470 (See the chart below).


Trading recommendation:


Stay long EUR from 1.6495 and lift your stop higher towards 1.6554 place your take profit at 1.6780. If you are not long EUR yet, the buy EUR close to 1.6660 with the same stop at 1.6554 and take profit at 1.6780.


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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 30, 2014 Trend News

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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:


R3: 140.40


R2: 140.15


R1: 139.94


Current Spot: 139.72


S1: 139.39


S2: 139.04


S3: 138.43


Technical summary:


As we expected the extended blue wave ii correction had ended and blue wave iii lower towards 136.15 is developing. Blue wave ii ended at 141.26 and following decline is clearly impulsive in its structure. As we have entered the most powerful part of this decline, we should expect corrections to be small or even sub-normal, therefore we expect minor resistance at 139.94 will protect the upside for the next decline towards 137.69 on the way lower towards 136.15.


Longer term we are looking for a major correction to the five way rally from 94.10 to 145.69 (please see the chart below). The ideal target for this correction will be at 126.03, which is right in the middle of wave four of one lessor degree.


Trading recommendation:


Stay short EUR from 141.85 and move your stop lower to 141.30. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell near 139.94 with the same stop at 141.30.


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