Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2510 took place shortly after.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel before bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel.

That's why, price action around 1.2580-1.2600 (the lower limit of the channel) was important to determine the next destination.

Bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 and 1.2600 to push towards 1.2700 and 1.2830 (back inside the channel).

The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles. It's running in profits now.

The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) is being approached. Bearish pressure is anticipated to be applied.

The medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2880-1.2900 (the recent consolidation zone).

A short-term bullish Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the 4H chart as anticipated. 4H fixation above 1.2700 confirmed the reversal and allowed the bulls to reach 1.2850.

A valid BUY position was suggested around the origin of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern (price level of 1.2660). The final target is being approached today around 1.2900.

Recommendation :

Price action should be watched around 1.2870-1.2900 (upper limit of the channel and previous broken demand level) for one more SELL position.

Stop loss for this short position should be located above 1.2965.

On the other hand, price level of 1.2700 should be watched for price action if visited first. It may provide another intraday long position.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Two months ago, the ongoing bearish swing (initiated in March 2014) was hindered at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper bearish one.

In August, a bullish breakout off the movement channel took place. This enabled a bullish Flag pattern to be established. Bullish targets were successfully hit, including price level of 1.1230 and recently 1.1289.

Strong bullish momentum has been expressed for a couple of weeks. As mentioned before, breaching the price zone of 1.1230-1.1260 and fixation above it triggered new bullish swing.

Few days ago, the USD/CAD pair tested the upper limit of a steeper bullish channel depicted on the chart. This corresponded to price level of 1.1370. Bearish rejection was anticipated after such a long bullish swing.

Bearish correction occurred towards 1.1260 as expected. This is manifested in the resulting daily candlesticks which indicate strong bearish rejection around 1.1330-1.1350.

Recommendations:

The USD/CAD pair looked overbought on the daily chart. The bulls were pushing beyond the upper limit of the movement channel. Conservative traders were looking for short positions at such high prices as suggested.

Price zone of 1.1370-1.1390 was recommended as a valid SELL entry with SL located just above 1.1400. It's running in profits now.

On the other hand, a break below 1.1230 ( previous prominent top and 50% Fibonacci level ) indicates another SELL entry with higher risk. Initial targets are located at 1.1180-1.1160.

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Gold analysis for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,238.00. We are facing very quiet day on the market and very low volume. We can observe rejection from our resistnace level at the price of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,224.00. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe sideways movement in a volume below the average. We are waiting for larger volume and stronger price action . Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Any larger supply may confirm futher bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,244.64

R2: 1,247.10

R3: 1,251.07

Support levels

S1: 1,236.70

S2: 1,234.24

S3: 1,230.27

Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid receding investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 4.0% to 25.2, S&P 500 closed up 0.01% at 1,862.76 after falling as low as 1,835.02 overnight) after Fed's Bullard said the U.S. central bank should consider delaying the end of its bond-buying program, expected after its Oct. 28-29 meeting, to halt the decline in inflation expectations and improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.152% versus 2.092% late Wednesday), demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and rebounding oil prices (Nymex crude settled up 92 cents Thursday at $82.70/bbl after hitting more-than-two-year low of $79.78/bbl). But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise drop in U.S. NAHB housing market index to 54 in October from 59 in September (versus forecast for no change). USD/JPY gains also tempered by Japan exporter sales; positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 1230 GMT U.S. September housing starts (forecast +4.6%) and building permits (forecast +2.3%), 1235 GMT Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen speech, 1400 GMT preliminary University of Michigan October consumer sentiment survey (forecast 84.0). Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining but stochastics turned bullish at oversold zone, inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 106.05. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 105.70. The pivot point stands at 106.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.05 and the second target at 107.55.

Resistance levels:

107.05

107.55

107.85

Support levels:

106.05

105.70

105.50

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to range-trade. It is Weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9), franc sales on rebounding EUR/CHF cross, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical comments:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9385. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9350. The pivot point stands at 0.9500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9525 and the second target at 0.9560.

Resistance levels:

0.9525

0.9560

0.96



Support levels:

0.9385

0.9350

0.9315

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to range-trade. It is supported by the subdued investor risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential and firmer dairy prices. But NZD/USD upside limited by improved USD sentiment after unexpected 23,000 drop in U.S. jobless claims to 14-year low of 264,000 in week ended Oct. 11 (versus forecast 290,000), stronger-than-expected 1.0% increase in U.S. September industrial production (versus forecast +0.4%) for largest monthly increase in three years, while capacity utilization rose more-than-expected to 79.3% in September--highest level since June 2008 (versus forecast 79.0%), less-than-expected drop in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 20.7 in October from 22.5 in September (versus forecast 19.9) and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish and five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8 and the second target at 0.8050. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7840. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8. The pivot point is at 0.7885.

Resistance levels:

0.8000

0.8050

0.8075



Support levels:

0.7840

0.78

0.7760

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The USD/CAD pair is going to call for a sideways market on October 17, 2014 and the price will probably move between the level of 1.1163 and the 1.1265 level in order to form a range of 114 pips in coming hours. However, risk to reward ratios is important and should be calculated, then a risk (76 pips) reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended; it must make a profit of 114 pips. The supports set at the level of 1.1200 - 1.1165. Therefore, the buyers are going to buy above 1.1200 - 1.1165 with a first target of 1.1230, it might resume to 1.1270. However, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Hence, set stop loss below the support of 1.1165. In the short term, the resistance is set at the level of 1.1265 (61.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H1 chart) , so the trend will call for a bearish market at the level of 1.1265 in order to retest the spot of 1.1235 - 1.1240 because there are a minor bearish channel.

• In the H4 chart, the trend is still calling for bullish market because upward trend is still strong. Moreover, the value of the RSI indicator is neutral but seems positive and quiet.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• In the long term, the price of USD/CHF pair is still moving between the level of 0.9350 and 0.9455 but it should noticed that the price has set above strong support at the level of 0.9350 (0.9350: 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4 chart). Moreover, it is worthy of note that these levels are coinciding between 50% and 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart and the pair has already formed a strong support at the area of 0.9350 - 0.9365. So now it is approaching to it in order to test it. Therefore, the USD/CHF pair upside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of increase does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bullish opportunity above 0.9350 - 0.9365, it will a good sign to buy above 0.9350 - 0.9365 with a first target of 0.9430. It will call for uptrend continuing rising towards 0.9500 in order to test a resistance on October 17, 2014. Consequently, if the trend will be able to break the resistance (0.9500) then the market will lead to the price of 0.9535. Alos, it should be noted that the level of 0.9535 is representing the 78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels.

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Gold technical analysis for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price continues to trade in a triangle pattern between $1,236 and $1,244. This consolidation will end once we break either level. My longer-term view remains bearish towards $1,050. Short-term trend is bullish as price makes higher highs and higher lows.

Blue lines= support

Red line= resistance

Gold price has reached the 50% retracement and is consolidating near its highs. As long as price is above $1,220 we could see another higher high towards $1,255-60. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the two horizontal blue trend lines. Important short-term support level is at $1,220. Resistance is found at $1,255.

Blue line = support

Red line = resistance

In the 30 minute chart above I point out the triangle pattern we are currently in. Very short-term trend is neutral as long as price is inside the triangle and it is advised to be neutral and wait for a breakout. My longer-term view remains however bearish targeting $1,050.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 17/10/2014 08:40 CET

The choppy trading conditions in wave (4) black has been anticipated yesterday, as the market is trying to unload the excessive amount of long positions in the recent trading range. As long as the key level of 1.1220 is not violated the bias is still bullish, but any breakout lower immediately exposes the level of 1.1080.

Support/Resistance:

1.1385 - Swing High

1.1369 - WR2

1.1291 - WR1

1.1227 - Intraday Support

1.1220 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Line

1.1186 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendation:

Not much has changed since yesterday and still traders should put an eye on the level of 1.1220, because as long as the level of 1.1220 is not broken the bias is still bullish as there is at least one more wave to the upside missing to complete the cycle. Buying the dips are advised with SL below the level of 1.1219.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General Overview for 17/10/2014 08:30 CET

The wave A black has been finally completed and the projected target level has been hit and even broken to the downside before the market has bounced upwards. Nevertheless, the key level has still not been violated and the market is still trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 136.30. Only a breakout higher above this area would be considered as a bullish clue, but please remember that the market is still inside of the larger time frame corrective structure (either triangle or zig-zag) and price action might get very choppy and full of whipsaws. Only a breakout below the level of 134.11 invalidates this slightly bullish view.

Support/Resistance:

133.98 - WS2

134.11 - Swing Low

134.66 - WS1

135.08 - Intraday Support

136.30 - Weekly Pivot

136.40 - Intraday Resistance

136.55 - Technical Resistance|Key Level|

Trading recommendations:

As long as the market stays below the level of 136.55 only sales should be considered, but any breakout above this level is bullish.

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