Overview
On the H4 chart the yesterday's close below the resistance level of 184.00 gave the price an opportunity for a slightly bearish move again. As it is shown here, currently the price is trying to continue its bearish move by breaking the support level of 182.50 and closing H4 below. In that case, we might get another opportunity for more sell signals; and it opens the way towards 182.00 as a first target, and then the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 182.50, this cancels the first scenario.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (184.40), R2 (184.00), R1 (183.50), S1 (182.50), S2 (182.00), S3 (181.00).
Overview
Today's H4 chart shows that the metal is still trading between the support level of 16.75 and below the resistance level of 17.00 after its failure to break the resistance level yesterday to continue the upward trend. Today, silver has bounced from the resistance level to take a slightly downward move and trade below it. Presently, we suggest waiting for closing above the resistance level in case of continuing its upward movement to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips lower the resistance level of 17.50. Then after breaking this resistance level, silver would open the way towards the resistance level of 17.70, which will give us more bullish signals.
Resistance and support levels: R3 (17.70), R2 (17.50), R1 (17.00), S1 (16.75), S2 (16.50), S3(16.20).
Overview:
The daily closure below the recent bottoms located around 1.5540-1.5560 rendered the previous consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with the projection target at 1.5300.
The market has already pushed further below reaching down to 1.5030-1.4980 where the lower limit of the channel has been providing support for the pair over the past few weeks.
Recently, H4 chart showed a transition phase into a sideway movement that has been maintained within the depicted price range.
A bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed at retesting of the upper limit of the daily channel on Friday. Hence, the GBP/USD pair went back to retest the newly-established DAILY SUPPORT around (1.5170-1.5200) which allowed bulls to establish a new ascending bottom (a sign of ongoing bullish momentum).
Persistence of the GBP/USD pair above the recent DAILY support (the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200) currently applies considerable bullish pressure over the price level of 1.5360 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where bearish rejection was previously applied on Friday.
Trading recommendations:
A valid BUY entry can be taken upon daily closure above 1.5360 takes place. SL should be placed slightly below the recent bottom around 1.5200.
Overview:
The USD/CAD pair established the previous consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level. Bullish breakout above it allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.2770.
The USD/CAD bulls have been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300 (broken 79.6% Fibonacci Level). Hence, a new bullish swing was established without further retesting of the DAILY SUPPORT zone depicted on the daily chart around 1.1950.
The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels. Hence, the current bearish correction was anticipated in the previous articles.
The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level). It has been defended by the bulls since a bullish breakout took place on January 21.
DAILY closure again below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located.
On the other hand, the bullish persistence above 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2760-1.2780 (low probability).
Trading recommendations:
Wait for DAILY closure below 1.2300 for SHORTING the USD/CAD pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2170. Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above the ENTRY levels (1.2300).
The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major DEMAND LEVELS around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The pair has lost almost 800 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, theoretical long-term bearish targets would be located near 0.9450, especially after the obvious MONTHLY closure of January took place below 1.2000.
During the past few weeks, the EUR/USD bears have been challenging historical lows that were established back in 2005 and 2003. Some bullish recovery was finally witnessed by the end of January and the beginning of February.
On the daily chart the market looked oversold below the price levels of 1.2000 and 1.1900 (prominent psychological SUPPORT).
As it was suggested in the previous articles, conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish pullback looking for better prices to SELL the pair off (R1 at 1.1550 and R2 at 1.1700).
On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1420-1.1450 is a recently established SUPPLY zone on the H4 chart. Short-term SELL positions can be taken there. Stop loss should be placed slightly above the price level of 1.1530 (the recent high).
However, risky traders should note that DAILY fixation again below 1.1260, which is a recent DEMAND level depicted on the H4 chart, activates a DOUBLE-TOP reversal pattern exposing the recent lows around 1.1110 for retesting enhanced by the bearish breakout that took place outside the depicted bullish channel on the H4 chart.
The previous consolidation movement extended between the price levels of 1.5550 and 1.5770. It represented a period of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.
Bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 which have not been visited since July 2013.
As mentioned in the previous articles, conservative traders should have been waiting for the current bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone around 1.5280-1.5320 for a low-risk SELL entry.
This SUPPLY zone also corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted daily channel where bearish pressure was anticipated on the last retesting that took place last week.
This bearish scenario was once threatened on Thursday. On Friday, it was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick that pushed the GBP/USD pair again inside the channel.
Today, another bullish breakout scenario is being attempted. By the end of today, daily closure should be watched for confirmation (above 1.5300).
Today, the GBP/USD pair has spiked above the price zone of 1.5280-1.5320 (prominent SUPPLY ZONE), which is failing to provide enough SUPPLY for the pair.
On January, the GBP/USD pair has shown bullish recovery off the price level of 1.5050. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been showing an inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
The price level of 1.5280 corresponded to the upper limit of the depicted H4 channel as well as 50% Fibonacci level of the recent bearish swing that extended between 1.5600 and 1.4976.
Hence, daily closure above 1.5340 confirms the reversal pattern exposing the price levels of 1.5500 and 1.5590 (full projection target of the reversal pattern).
Overview:
In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading upwards. The price has tested the level of 1.5478. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5445 was held successfully, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5445, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.5590. We got resistance level at the price of 1.5340. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe weak supply around the price of 1.5340.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.5406
R2: 1.5541
R3: 1.5523
Support levels:
S1: 1.5263
S2: 1.5219
S3: 1.5147
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).
Overview :
Since our last analysis gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,216.59. According to the H4 time frame, we can see reaction from buyers and test the resistance level at the price of 1,228.00-1,230.00. According to the daily time frame, we have supply in a volume below the average. Major resistance level is still around the price of 1,307.00 (swing high like resistance) and intraday resistance is around the price of 1,230.00-1,252.00. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the lows (buy on the dips). Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,220.00, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1,200.00 before any larger bullish reaction.
Daily Fibonacci pivot points :
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,233.36
R2: 1,247.13
R3: 1,255.56
Support levels :
S1: 1,211.16
S2: 1,202.73
S3: 1,188.96
Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips).
General overview for 12/02/2015 10:45 CET
The market broke out of the supply zone just to hit the upper boundary of the golden channel and sharply reversed. It bounced back right from the weekly pivot at the level of 1.2543 and now it should continue even lower, but first, the price must break out of the golden channel in order to make a new low below the level of 1.2350. Only an impulsive wave progression that violates the supply zone invalidates the scenario.
Support/Resistance:
11273 2- WR1
1.2653 - 1.2695 - Supply Zone
1.2565 - Intraday Resistance
1.2543 - Weekly Pivot
Trading recommendations:
Any breakout below the level of 1.2543 is bearish and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only. Please set the SL above the level of 1.2565 and TP should be left open for now.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comGeneral overview for 12/02/2015 10:05 CET
The current wave progression might be completed if we take into account the recent spike down to the intraday support at the level of 134.71. Nevertheless, to confirm this, the market must break below the golden trend line lower channel line and impulsively continue lower violating the weekly pivot and weekly pivot support at the level of 133.11. Please remember that this is a corrective wave 4 and there is one more wave to the downside expected that goes below the low of the wave 3 eventually.
Support/Resistance:
137.64 - Technical Resistance| Wave 4 Projected Target|
137.27 - WR2
136.68 - Intraday Resistance
134.71 - Intraday Support
134.21 - Weekly Pivot
133.11 - WS1
Trading recommendations:
Any breakout below the level of 134.71 is bearish and daytraders should consider opening sell orders only. Please set the SL rather tight (20-30 pips) and TP at the level of 134.21 and 133.11.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comThe dollar index is preparing for a breakout to new highs as the price holds support and approaches important resistance levels. A break above 95.27 will be a bullish signal with 95.90 as first target. The longer-term trend with 100-101 target remains valid.
Green line = resistance
Blue line = support
Support is found at 93.40. The short-term support by the Ichimoku cloud is found at 94.10. The trend remains short-term and bullish but we are close to important resistance of 95.20-95.30. Breaking this resistance will be a very bullish sign. A rejection at the resistance will bring the index back towards the Ichimoku cloud support at 94.
The daily chart remains bullish as the tenkan-sen support is found at 94.20 and is flatting out. The same with the kijun-sen support at 93.50. This flattening move by the index is a consolidation and a pause to the longer-term uptrend. I remain bullish for longer term with 100-101 target.
Gold price has broken the bearish flag and has reached my minimum target of $1,220. Gold price is now trying to back test the break down area and there are increased chances of rejection and another push lower towards $1,200.
Black line = resistance
Green lines = bearish flag
The bearish flag was broken downwards. Price has reached my target of $1,220, but the trend remains bearish despite the recent bounce to $1,230. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and below the black trend line resistance. I expect gold prices to be rejected at the short-term resistance of $1,230. I believe that as long as the price is below $1,240, the trend is bearish for the short term.
Gold price has finally reached the 61.8% retracement I was calling for a few days now. The internal price structure tells me that the decline is not over as long as the price is below $1,240. The next target is at $1,200. Breaking below $1,190 will not be a good sign for bulls. I prefer to remain short.
Technical summary:
We have seen a peak above minor resistance at 1.5415, but not yet a close above this minor resistance. So, we can not yet argue that wave (ii) ended at 1.5198. A close above 1,5415 on the 4-hour chart and more important a break above resistance at 1.5489 will confirm that wave (ii) has ended and that wave (iii) is developing. Short-term minor support is now found at 1.5320. If this support is able to protect the downside for the close above 1.5415 and more importantly the break above 1.5489, then we should look for wave (iii) higher towards at least 1.6668.
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.5255 and will move our stop higher to 1.5275.
Technical summary:
As expected, after the break above 135.36, the correction from 130.14 has extended higher towards 137.65 as the ideal corrective target. In the short term, we are looking for a minor consolidation before the final rally higher towards the ideal corrective target to end wave (iv) and set the stage for the final decline lower to 125.98 to end the c wave of the expanded flat correction, that began at the 145.69 high in late December 2014.
Trading recommendation:
We are looking for a EUR selling opportunity at 137.55 and will place our stop at 138.90.
The yellow metal again ended lower at the previous session due to the strong US dollar. The core retail sales and unemployment claims are due. Any positive readings will ignite selling pressure again. In the recent days, the yellow metal lost its momentum affected by the strong US economic data and uncertainty in Greece. At yesterday's Eurogroup meeting, no agreement was made. The final agreement is expected at the nearest Eurogroup meeting next Monday. The metal fell to a month low. The stronger US data raises hope that the US Federal Reserve will lift the key interest rate earlier than later. At yesterday's session, we recommended fresh selling below $1,228.00 with the targets at $1,225.00 and $1,217.00. The metal made a low exactly at $1,216.50. But, the metal managed to close above $1,217.00. If a daily close is below $1,217.00, bears can challenge $1,207.00, $1,204.00, and $1,199.00. The weekly key support level is set at $1,216.00. Until the metal prices close and trade below $1,266.00, use every rise to sell. Intraday resistance exists at $1,245.00. We still recommend positional selling from $1,300.00 odd levels and $1,266.00 with the target at $1,230.00. All our targets can be achieved. Now, consider fresh selling only below $1,216.00 with the target at $1,200.00.
Resistance: $1,226.00, $1,231.00, $1,245.00.
Support: $1,216.00, $1207.00, $1,199.00.
Selling below $1,216.00.
