Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 allowed enough bearish pressure to be applied on the pair towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish "Doji" indicating lack of enough bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support so far.

At the same time, several bullish attempts took place to step above 1.3850. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

Daily breakdown of 1.3800 signals a strong bearish impulse probably towards 1.3740 initially.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3855.

For the bulls, price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest DEMAND zone to be watched for a valid BUY position. Stop loss should be located below 1.3740.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for early exit from the current bullish position in case significant bearish momentum is expressed.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 0.38% to 13.32 overnight) on flare-up in tensions between Ukraine and Russia. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports sales, weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 79.74 versus 79.86 early Thursday) as bigger-than-expected 24,000 increase in the U.S. jobless claims in week ended April 19 to 329,000 (versus 315,000 forecast) and drop in Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index to 7 in April from 10 in March offset stronger-than-expected 2.6% increase in the U.S. March durable goods orders (versus +2.0% forecast). But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.85. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.65. The pivot point stands at 102.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.70 and the second target at 102.95.

Resistance levels:

102.70

102.95

103.20

Support levels:

101.85

101.65

101.40

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven CHF as tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalate. USD/CHF is also weighed by the weaker USD sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy stance and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is neutral.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8795. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8775. The pivot point stands at 0.88355. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from support level, and then it moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8860 and the second target at 0.8880.

Resistance levels:

0.8860

0.8880

0.889

Support levels:

0.8795

0.8775

0.875

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the Japanese exports sales. But GBP/JPY downside is limited by the positive euro sentiment, demand from Japan's importers and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.40 and the second target at 172.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 171. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 170.55. The pivot point is at 171.35.

Resistance levels:

172.40

172.80

173.15

Support levels:

171

170.55

170

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX continues to fall below the resistance level of 80.11 and the chances that the USDX to fall to the support level of 79.19 is very high, because the USDX has formed a fractal at the 80.00 level. If the USDX does make a breakout in the support level of 79.50, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.19. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has made a bearish rebound at the 200-day moving average, which is close to the resistance level of 79.93 and now it is very likely that the USDX will fall to the support level of 79.33. If successful, the next support level on the road would be the level of 78.75. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has found strong resistance at the 79.88 level and now the USDX is trying to make a breakout in the support level of 79.64 with the formation of a higher low pattern. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.39. The USDX is below the 200 SMA and MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.64, take profit is at 79.39, and stop loss is at 79.90.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD remains above the support level of 1.6766. For now, the bullish bias is kept alive, as this pair has formed a fractal below the support level of 1.6766, which could give to the GBP/USD a bullish momentum for the next days. If the pair manages to consolidate above the 1.6851 level, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD has been strengthened again over the support level of 1.6785. If the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6841, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6900. On the other hand, it's expected to fall to the support level of 1.6785 if the pair takes a bearish rebound to current levels. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: This pair has made a breakout level of 1.6800, so that the next target for the GBP/USD is the resistance level of 1.6850. If the pair manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6900. By now, we should wait for a bullish pattern formation as the GBP/USD is above the 200 SMA. MACD is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6850, take profit is at 1.6900, and stop loss is at 1.6800.

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GOLD analysis for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1,268.35 on high volume (almost met our down station at 1,262.00). If we take a look at 4H timeframe, we can observe that support level at the price of 1,277.00 held successfully and that caused price to start another bullish correction. We can observe that strong demand has entered the market and that selling at this stage looks risky. Gold is in progress of bullish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential end of bullish corrective phase. I got major Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,315.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,344.00. There is an also submajor Fibonacci retracement 61,8% at the price of 1.307.00. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities after bullish corrective phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,297.52

R2: 1,304.52

R3: 1,315.87

Support levels:

S1: 1,274.82

S2: 1,267.82

S3: 1,256.47

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since gold is in progress of major bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after bullish corrective phase.

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EUR/NZD analysis for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1.6163 on average volume according to the daily chart. We are still waiting for a larger movement on this pair. According to the 15-min time frame, we can observe that supply has entered the market and rejection from our resistance level around the price of 1.6165, so buying at this stage looks risky. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels for the potential downward movement and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6100 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6060. Buying looks risky, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. Any larger supply on a higher volume may confirm further bearish movement. If the price starts upward movements, there is resistance at the price of 1.6175 (previous doji swing high).

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6168

R2: 1.6208

R3: 1.6272

Support levels:

S1: 1.6040

S2 : 1.6000

S3: 1.5936

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As it is seen in today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the Support level of 19.20 after its failure to break the Support level of 18.90 yesterday. Currently, we should wait for the retesting of the Support level again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case we will get a good opportunity to sell below the Support level till testing the next Support level of 18.90. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this Support level, but as long as the price is still above the Support level of 19.20, this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.20), R2 (19.75), R1 (19.50), S1 (19.20), S2 (18.90), S3(18.50).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Proceeding from the today's H4 chart, the pair is still trading between the Support level of 171.50 and the Resistance level of 172.00 and currently the pair fails again to break the Resistance level. If the pair breaks it to take an upward movement, it may continue its bullish trend and we will get a good opportunity to buy again above the Resistance level of 172.00 till closing 4H above the Resistance level of 172.75 as a target level. Then we should wait for breaking this Resistance level to continue the upward move and open the way towards the Resistance level of 173.00. On the other hand, if the pair fails to break the Resistance level of 172.00 and bounces from it, it may take a downward trend, which will enable the Support level of 171.50 again, Therefore we suggest waiting for the next closing before making a decision.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (173.00), R2 (172.75), R1 (172.00), S1 (171.50), S2 (170.50), S3 (169.75).

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The price of USD/CAD pair is continuing to show signs of strength following the break at 1.0910. The level of 1.0910 is representing a strong support this month. Therefore the USD/CAD pair resistance has broken and it was turned to support since three months (14th of January 2014). Moreover, the pair has already formed the strong support at the level of 1.0910. So, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.0910 with the target of 1.1068 and it should be noted that the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is coinciding with the price of 1.1068.


• Another thought, if the trend breaks this level and closes below the key level (1.1020), then it will be a downside momentum rather convincing and the structure of the fall does not look corrective, for that the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the price of 1.1000. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell at this level and it should be noticed that the support has already been placed at the 1.0910 level.

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#USDX Technical analysis for April 25, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index continues to trade in a neutral zone and in a sideways consolidation range of 80 and 79.70. Price has no clear direction. Price is trading below the 50% retracement resistance. Price is still inside the Ichimoku cloud. So it is important to wait for a break out or break down before opening a position.

Short-term resistance is at 80. Short-term support is at 79.65. The trend is neutral. So we prefer to stay on the sidelines waiting for a signal. Sometimes it is preferred to wait and have no position than have a position that has a 50-50 chance of success.

The daily chart continues to favor bears. Price is below the trend lines and below the Ichimoku cloud. Price is in a downtrend making lower lows and lower highs. Important long-term support is at 79 and long-term resistance at 81.30. A break below 79 could bring the Dollar index towards 78.50 or even 77. A break above 80.70 could bring the index to 81.30 or even 83.

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Gold technical analysis for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Gold price made a fake break down yesterday and reversed higher above $1,290 breaking the downward sloping short-term trend channel. Gold price touched the lower boundaries of the downward sloping channel breaking $1,275 and reversed above the channel. Breaking below $1,275 has increased chances that wave 2 was completed at $1,331 but the reversal above $1,290 has changed our possible wave counts once again, as the decline with the new low could very well be an irregular wave B.

While price is reversing upwards we find short-term resistance at $1,300 by the Ichimoku cloud. Support is found at $1,270. Current price action has increased the chances of a bigger bounce towards $1,300-$1,315. If price bounces upwards above $1,310 then we will have increased chances of making a move above recent high at $1,331.

Gold price has briefly broken support as shown in the chart above but reversed and closed the day above support. This fake break down could be the signal for the start of a new upward move that could bring prices above $1,331 towards $1,340-50. Breaking below $1,269 is bearish but I give little chances of this happening. If wave 2 is not the $1,331 high, then we should expect wave 2 to complete near $1,340-50. This is where we should sell with $1,391 stop and $1,200-$1,100 target.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6275

R2: 1.6232

R1: 1.6180 - Important resistance as it's the top of wave a.

Current spot: 1.6148

S1: 1.6115

S2: 1.6083

S3: 1.6035

Technica summary:

We are still looking for wave d of the triangle to move lower towards 1.5933 before the final red wave e higher towards 1.6044 takes over. Once this triangle finally comes to an end, we will be looking for a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside for a decline closer to 1.5533 to end the major correction, which has dominated the picture since August 2013.

That said, we have to be aware that a break above important resistance at 1.6180 will invalidate the triangle concept and indicate that a bottom already is in place at 1.5766. A break above 1.6180 will call for a rally towards at least 1.6315 and above to confirm the bottom for a new powerful rally higher.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 1.6049 with your stop and revers placed at 1.6185. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell here with the same stop and revers.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 141.99

R2: 141.79

R1: 141.62

Current spot: 141.54

S1: 141.35

S2: 140.99

S3: 140.60

Technical summary:

The correction from 140.08 just became even more messy and complex. We did see a break below 141.23, but there was no follow-through and we are now back into the range just below resistance in the 142.00 - 142.17 area. For now we will just have to wait for this cross to provide us with confirmation that the correction from 140.08 is over and that the decline lower towards 136.33 is developing. That confirmation will be given upon a break below 140.99 until then we will just have to accept the possibility of a move closer to 142.17.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 141.63 and keep your stop at 143.50 for now. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 142.17 or upon a break below 140.99.

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Technical analysis of Silver for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver prints lows just below the $19.00 levels and pulls back sharply as seen here. The metal has also produced an engulfing bullish candlestick signal, indicating a bullish reversal ahead. Recommendations are to still buy on dips, risk remains at $18.40.

2. Support is at $18.75, followed by $18.00 levels, while resistance is at $20.40, followed by $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver could dip towards $19.30 levels first before continuing to rally further up. Buying on dips is favored still.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate 50% long positions now and the remaining at $19.30, stop is at $18.40, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has broken down to fresh lows at $1,270.00 but the recovery is even faster. A 4H chart view is presented here to look into immediate wave structure. The metal has produced an engulfing bullish candlestick signal indicating that the next leg could be higher. Recommendations are still to buy on dips, risk remains at $1,240.00.

2. Support is at $1,230.00/40.00, followed by $1,210.00 and lower, while resistance is at $1,310.00, followed by $1,330.00, $1,388.00 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold is poised to retrace towards $1,280.00 levels and resume rally towards $1,330.00.

Trade recommendations:

Initiate 50% long positions now and the remaining at $1,280.00, stop is at $1,240.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for April 25, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 25/04/2014 08:40 CET

Very tight trading range has been observed on this pair recently with volatility slowly decreasing as well. The range is between the level of 1.1038 and 1.1015 and it is being supported by ascending golden trendline. Only a sustained breakout below the intraday support would expose the weekly pivot for test. Otherwise the price will maintain the trading range.

Support/Resistance:

1.1066 - WR1

1.1052- Swing High

1.1045- 88%Fibo

1.1038 - Intraday Resistance (range)

1.1010 - Golden Trend Line Dynamic Support

1.1004 - Weekly Pivot

1.1015 - Intraday Support (range)

1.1000 - Intraday Support

1.0976 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

As long as the level of 1.1038 provides the resistance, the sell orders should be opened from the price levels close to the level of 1.1023 with SL above the level of 1.1038 and TP at the level of 1.1000 with a possible downside extension to the level of 1.0963.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair is still unchanged, stuck within the triangle consolidation for now. Currently trading around 141.50 levels, the pair still needs to break below 140.00 to confirm the bearish setup. On the flip side, a bullish break would be confirmed above 142.50 and subsequently 144.00. Fresh trading positions should not be initiated at the moment.

2. Support is at 140.00 (intermediary), followed by 138.50, 136.00, 134.00 and lower, while resistance is at 142.50, followed by 144.00 and 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY needs to correct towards at least 97.00 levels before resuming trend. But a break below 140.00 would be required to confirm the same.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 144.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for April 25, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair has resumed pullback after taking out resistance at 1.4850/60 levels earlier. As seen here, the minimum level for a bullish bounce to appear is around 1.4750 levels and below that around 1.4600 (these are the fibonacci support levels). Recommendations are to wait for a bullish bounce to initiate long positions again.

2. Support is at 1.4600, followed by 1.4450, 1.4350and lower, while resistance is at 1.4950/60 followed by 1.5120 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that GBP/CHF should be well supported around the 1.46/47 levels. However, a break below 1.4550 and 1.4450 would be extremely bearish.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to buy lower.

Good luck!

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