Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index is 80.28 versus 80.18 early Thursday) and the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investors' risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.58% to 14.79; S&P rose 0.6% overnight) on rise in the Markit U.S. flash manufacturing PMI to near-four-year high of 56.7 in February from a final 53.7 in January. Investors are shrugging off a fall in the HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI to the seven-month low of 48.3 in February from the final reading of 49.5 in January. That gives the benefit of the doubt for a batch of the soft U.S. economic reports to the harsh winter weather. USD/JPY is also supported by Japan's record trade deficit of Y2.79 trillion in January, higher U.S. Treasury yields, demand from the Japanese importers and loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. But the dollar sentiment dented by the smaller-than-expected drop of 3,000 in the U.S. jobless claims that posted 336,000 in the week ended Feb. 15 (versus 335,000 forecast); lower-than-expected U.S. January core CPI of +0.1% (versus +0.2% forecast); worse-than-expected drop in the U.S. Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity that came in at -6.3 in February (versus plus 7.4 forecast) from 9.4 in January, and weaker-than-expected 0.3% rise in the U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index in January (versus +0.4% forecast). The USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan's exports sales and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.05 and the second target at 103.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.65. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.35. The pivot point is at 102.

Resistance levels:

103.05

103.40

103.85

Support levels:

101.65

101.35

101

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross and on the buoyant CHF/JPY cross and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five- and 15-day moving averages are declining, but stochastics are bullish at oversold zone.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8910 and the second target at 0.893. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8845. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8825. The pivot point is at 0.8860.

Resistance levels:

0.891

0.893

0.865

Support levels:

0.8845

0.8825

0.8875

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to rebound. It is supported by the positive risk appetite and demand from Japan importers. But EUR/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and weaker euro sentiment and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is positive biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.90 and the second target at 172.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169.5. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 169. The pivot point is at 170.05.

Resistance levels:

171.90

172.55

173

Support levels:

169.5

169

168.25

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range. It is supported by the Kiwi demand on NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment and official stance against strong Kiwi exchange rate and positions adjustment before weekend. Daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but MACD is still in bullish mode.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8315 and the second target at 0.8345. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8205. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.818. The pivot point is at 0.824.

Resistance levels:

0.8315

0.8345

0.838

Support levels:

0.8205

0.818

0.816

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Elliott Wave analysis of AUD/USD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave analysis
The AUD/USD pair has continued trading in a choppy sideways movements yesterday, corrective wave [b] (coloured black) of the bigger wave B (coloured blue) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see the Triangle pattern developing from the 0.8935 level. As long as the price stays below the 0.9030 region, we can expect at least one more drop towards 0.8861 before the price turns higher in the C wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave B should extend 50% of wave A, we can define potential targets by measuring wave A with take profit at 0.8857 (50% of wave A). Swing traders should wait for the B wave to complete and from there we can try to join the buyers against the 0.8750 level.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.8903, (S2) 0.8935, (S1) 0.8955, (PP) 0.8988, (R1) 0.9020, (R2) 0.9040, (R3) 0.9073.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.8950 with stop loss at 0.9065 and take profit at 0.8857 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the USD/CAD pair has continued upwards movements, wave (iii)/(c) (coloured green) of the bigger wave [a] (coloured black) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that wave (ii)/(b) (coloured green) has completed short down cycle from 1.1092 at 1.1059 level. At the moment, we see that price has toping around the 1.1190 area, news coming from Canada in a few minutes can move this commodity pair quickly, so let see what is the best way to plan a trade. While the USD/CAD pair remain above the 1.0949 level, we only want to join the buyers that should come at the next pullback, next supports could easy become the 1.1050-1.1015 area (50-61.8% of the [a] wave). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave Z should extend 61.8% of wave W, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 1.1512 (61.8% of wave W). Short term traders can try to join the short term selling opportunity against the 1.1195 high.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.1039, (S2) 1.1059, (S1) 1.1071, (PP) 1.1091, (R1) 1.1111, (R2) 1.1123, (R3) 1.1143.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from the Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why, short positions at the level of 1.0150 with stop loss at 1.0949 and take profit at 1.151 are recommended.

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Gold analysis for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,324.76 on lower volume. Our previous analysis is still valid. The price stopped at FR 61.8% (1,322.00). We can observe low volume demand around the price of 1,323.00, which is the sign that buying at this stage is risky. Be careful with buying at this stage since we may see further downward movement. First down station may be an area around the price of 1,307.00 (swing low). Anyway, to confirm further downward movement, we neeed to see stronger supply on the market on high volume. Otherwise, if the price breaks the level of 1,325.00 on high volume, we may see possible test of the level of 1,331.00. My advice is to watch for potential bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,324.55

R2: 1,328.65

R3: 1,335.30

Support levels:

S1: 1,311.25

S2: 1,307.15

S3: 1,300.50

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since we have weak demand on the market and Gold is near the high new ground.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, the price tested and rejected from the level of 1.6492 on an average volume. Our previous analysis is still active. We can observe selling climax at the price of 1.6517, so selling at this stage looks risky. Our first major target has been reached and now we must wait and see for the potential break the level of 1.6666 which may confirm futher upward direction. Next major upper station is a level around the price of 1.6790 (FE 100%). Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6508 held successfully and we may expect further bullish continuation. If the price breaks around the level of 1.6500, we can also observe lack of supply, which is another sign that selling at this stage looks risky. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6631

R2: 1.6672

R3: 1.6739

Support levels:

S1: 1.6496

S2 : 1.6455

S3: 1.6387

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

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#USDX Technical analysis for February 21, 2014 Trend News

In our previous analysis, we mentioned that the Dollar Index was oversold and made a double bottom and that there was increased chances of an upward bounce. We expected the Dollar Index to rise first towards 80,40 and then towards 80,60. The index has managed to hold above its recent lows and it is now trading near our targets at 80,38.

The Dollar Index has managed to move above the black trend line and it is moving towards the first important resistance at 80,40 or the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Short-term support is found at 80,15 and short-term resistance at 80,40.

The daily chart confirmed the short-term trend reversal that we were expecting. It is crucial on a daily level to break above 80,40 level as this could open the way towards the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement at 81. For now we remain bullish the Dollar Index.

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Gold technical analysis for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has broken above the downward sloping trend line resistance and is now making a try to reach previous highs. This upward move that started after the low at $1,306 is most liekly to be the beginning of a new upward move that could push the Gold price towards $1,400.

Gold price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud support in the 4 hour chart. It has short-term resistance at $1,325 and short-term support at $1,305. The short-term trend is neutral now. Breaking above $1,331 will make trend bullish and give us $1,350 as first target. If Gold price breaks below $1,305, then short-term trend will change to bearish and we will have $1,280-90 as our first target.

The daily chart shows how Gold price is fighting at the red downward sloping long-term trend line resistance. In case the top is in, the first pullback target is the 38% Fibonacci retracement at $1,295. However, Gold price could be forming a bullish flag. A longer-term trend and momentum point are higher towards $1,350-$1,400. Holding above $1,300 is bullish. Breaking below is bearish and could push the price towards $1,260 upward sloping trend line.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6747

R2: 1.6673

R1: 1.6578

Current Spot: 1.6505

S1: 1.6477

S2: 1.6412

S3: 1.6342

Technical summary:

The wave 1 ended little earlier than we expected. Wave v became equal in length to wave v, which is a common relationship. With the break below 1.6574 we knew that the wave 1 was in place and the wave 2 was developing. We will be looking for the wave 2 towards the bottom of the wave iv at 1.6477. In the short term, we will wait for resistance at 1.6567; 1.6587 and 1.6606 to protect the upside for the expected decline towards 1.6477. However, we have to be aware that the second wave tends to correct a large portion of wave one, which means the expected correction could be deeper and reach 1.6342 before the wave 2 is done and the wave 3 higher begins.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6570 was hit for a very nice profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.6485 with a stop at 1.6250 expecting to raise the stop soon.

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Daily analysis of Silver for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As shown in the today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the Support level of 21.25 after its failure to break the Resistance level of 21.75 again. Currently, we should wait for re-testing the Support level again and closing below to get the bearish opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the Support level untill the testing of the next Support level of 20.90. Therefore, we can consider our first target few pips above this Support level, but as long as the price is still above the Support level of 21.25 this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (22.20), R2 (22.00), R1 (21.75), S1 (21.25), S2 (20.90), S3(20.50).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 21, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 141.87

R2: 141.26

R1: 140.87

Current Spot: 140.60

S1: 140.20

S2: 139.99

S3: 139.80

Technical summary:

Important support at 138.95 protected the downside and has kept the correction from 136.23 alive and we should still be looking for a rally higher towards 142.26. In the short term we are likely to see resistance at 140.87 holding a minor correction towards 139.80 before the next rally higher towards the ideal target at 142.26. Once this correction is over we should see renewed downside pressure for a decline towards the 38.2% corrective target for the rally from the 94.10 low to the 145.69 high.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 139.95 was hit for a small loss. We will stay neutral and wait to sell EUR at 142.00.

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