A bearish breakout below 1.5550 exposed lower targets. Bears have already pushed towards the price levels of 1.5050 and 1.4960 where the market has established another consolidation zone, which extended up to the price levels of 1.5280.
This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel. The bulls managed to push towards higher levels including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).
Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks reflecting the strong bearish tendency of the market.
Demand level located around 1.5200-1.5230 was breached last week indicating a strong bearish tendency on the market. It is expected to act as a supply level for retesting.
GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone of 1.5170-1.5220, especially after the obvious bearish engulfing candlestick that occurred last Monday.
Quick bearish decline towards 1.5080 and 1.5000 took place shortly after bearish breakdown of 1.5170 took place.
Conservative traders should wait for a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200 for a low-risk sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5230 (previous supply level).
On the other hand, H4 closure below the prominent DEMAND level at 1.4950 (prominent weekly low) directly exposes the price levels of 1.4850 and 1.4800 (historical low).
The market has been pushing lower aggressively after breaking below the major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1300 pips since the beginning of 2015. The EUR/USD pair is pushing further below a significant twelve-year low of 1.0900.
Theoretical long-term bearish targets are likely to be located near 0.9450, especially after two bearish monthly closures below 1.2000 (January and February's candlesticks).
A bearish Flag pattern was established on the daily chart. The daily fixation below the price level of 1.1260 (minor consolidation range) confirmed that bearish pattern.
The obvious bearish breakdown of the WEEKLY DEMAND level at 1.1100 directly exposed lower targets around 1.0800.
Bearish persistence below 1.1100 (broken weekly low) enhanced the bearish momentum of the market.
Projection targets for the Flag pattern would be located around 1.0800 (already breached) and 1.0500 (yet to come).
On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.1100 (nearest supply level) for a low-risk sell position with Stop loss to be located above 1.1130.
Overview:
In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4590 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). We can observe successful rejection from our resistance level around the price of 1.4800. The short- and mid-term trends are bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after corrections. I found solid resistance area around the price of 1.4670-1.4700 and if we see weak demand around that area, selling will be possible. We have supports around the price of 1.4590 – 1.4520.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4825
R2: 1.4866
R3: 1.4934
Support levels:
S1: 1.4689
S2: 1.4648
S3: 1.4580
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement (after bullish correction).
Overview:
The market looks overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels as well as the 79.6% Fibonacci level. That is why the sideways movement was anticipated.
The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) that provided significant bullish SUPPORT for few successive weeks.
Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern depicted on the DAILY chart. However, the current market price action indicates an ongoing bullish breakout above 1.2600-1.2660.
Bullish persistence above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (recent highs) enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.2900 and 1.2960, as it confirms the continuation pattern.
Projection target for the wedge pattern would roughly be located around 1.3060 (last visited on March 2009).
Consider the other scenario if WEEKLY closure comes below the price zone of 1.2680-1.2650 (key-zone). If so, this would expose the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2350 and 1.2300 where 79.6% Fibonacci level is located.
Trading recommendations:
Risky traders can benefit from the short-term bullish breakout above the wedge-pattern. BUY trigger is the DAILY closure above 1.2650. T/P levels should be set at 1.2880 and 1.2960.
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price has tested the level of $1,149.76 in a high volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and have got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of $1,150.22 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at $1,137.80. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. We have resistance around the price of $1,155.00 according to current price action. If the price breaks the level of $1,150.00 (the long-term support), we may see even $1,047.00 (the long-term support).
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,167.21
R2: 1,170.93
R3: 1,176.97
Support levels :
S1: 1,155.13
S2: 1,151.41
S3: 1,145.37
Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.
Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a lower range after hitting a 7.5-year high of 122.04 on EBS on Tuesday. USD/JPY is undermined by the flows to the safe-haven yen and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 10.82% to 16.69, S&P 500 closed 1.7% lower at 2,044.16 overnight) as worries rise that the Federal Reserve will start its withdrawal of monetary stimulus midyear. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.121% versus 2.195% late Monday) and Japan's exports. The USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from the Japan importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and bullish USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11.5-year high 98.808 Tuesday, last 98.67 versus 97.79 early Tuesday) as Friday's strong US February non-farm payrolls report raised expectations that the Fed will abandon the term "patient" from its interest rate statement next Wednesday and could raise interest rates from near zero as soon as June. The losses are also limited by a bigger-than-expected on-month increase of 0.3% in US January wholesale inventories (versus the forecast for no change).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at the overbought levels. Bearish doji shooting-star candlestick pattern was completed on Tuesday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 122 and the second target at 122.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 120.20. The pivot point is at 120.90.
Resistance levels:
122
122.50
122.75
Support levels:
120.60
120.20
120
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting almost a two-month high of 1.0000 on EBS on Tuesday. USD/CHF is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment, the negative Swiss interest rates, the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, and franc sales on the soft CHF/JPY cross.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is at the overbought levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 1.0120 and the second target at 1.0160. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9875. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9820. The pivot point is at 0.9950.
Resistance levels:
1.0120
1.0160
1.02
Support levels:
0.9875
0.9820
0.9750
Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a one-month low of 0.7249 onTuesday as markets await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement at 20:00 GMT (RBNZ is widely expected to leave rates on hold at 3.5%). Kiwi sentiment was hurt by food safety issue for the New Zealand dairy industry after police revealed a threat to contaminate infant and other dairy formula. NZD/USD is also undermined by bullish dollar sentiment, soft commodity prices and kiwi sales on the buoyant AUD/NZD cross and kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. The NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD yield differential.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at the oversold levels. Five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.72. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7240. The pivot point stands at 0.7150. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7450 and the second target at 0.7410.
Resistance levels:
0.7380
0.7450
0.75
Support levels:
0.72
0.7150
0.71
Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a 1.5-year low of 129.23 on EBS this morning. GBP/JPY is undermined by the soft EUR/USD undertone, heightened investor risk aversion and Japan's exports. The GBP/JPY losses are tempered by demand from the Japanese importers.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at the oversold levels. Five- and 15-day moving averages are declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 183.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 184.05. The pivot point stands at 183.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 182.10 and the second target at 181.45.
Resistance levels:
183.65
184.05
184.40
Support levels:
182
181.45
181.15
The today's session is expected to give the USDX more upside room as we can see aton the daily chart that the instrument is trying to perform a consolidation above the resistance level of 99.19. At the moment, we expect a bullish pattern formation because we do not like how the USDX is doing the bullish rallies due to the overbought levels in the oscillators at lower time frames.
The solid bullish structure developed at the session on February 26 is still alive and the USDX is trying again to reach new historical highs. The immediate resistance is located at the psycological level of 100.00. In that zone we could see strong pullbacks in the near term, because the MACD indicator could be inside the overbought territory when the USDX is trading inside this price zone.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 99.19 / 100.49
Dailychart's support levels: 98.01 / 96.96
H1 chart's resistance levels: 99.13 / 100.00
H1 chart's support levels: 97.96 / 96.85
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 99.13, take profit is at 100.00, and stop loss is at 98.30.
There is still enough downside room for more falls in the GBP/USD pair on the daily chart, as the pair is approaching the support level of 1.4948. Currently, it is forming a lower low pattern, so the bearish trend is getting more strength. It is still possible that GBP/USD will reach the low level of 1.4820 in the coming days.
The sideways moves continue on the H1 chart as the GBP/USD pair is still trapped in a low range between the levels of 1.5097 and 1.5028. The 200 SMA on the H1 chart is bearish and the MACD indicator is entering negative territory, so we could expect more falls to at least the support level of 1.4948 in an intraday outlook.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5086 / 1.5247
Dailychart's support levels: 1.4948 / 1.4820
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5097 / 1.5162
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5028 / 1.4948
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5028, take profit is at 1.4948, and stop loss is at 1.5108.
Overview :
Observations :
Overview :
Intraday technical levels :
Pair: GBP/USD
The Dollar index remains in a strong uptrend and has reached our short-term targets very easily. The Dollar index might make a short-term pullback soon but it is very difficult to say yet as this bullish trend is extremely strong.
Orange lines = bullish price channel
The Dollar index remains inside the upward sloping price channel but has reached the upper channel boundaries. This is a resistance area and we could see a throwoff above it to complete the upward wave from 94.10. We could see a pullback towards the 38% retracement towards 97.25 before we resume the bullish trend towards 100-101.
My longer-term target remains at 100-101 as I have been saying for some time recently. The 61.8% retracement is my target and I believe the bullish trend will very soon reach this level. Support on the monthly chart is at 94.50.
Gold price remains inside the short-term downward sloping channel. A short-term trend remains bearish with a possible target at $1,140. A move towards $1,200 is possible only if price breaks above $1,175.
Orange lines = downward sloping channel
Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the bearish price channel. Resistance is found at $1,175 and support is at $1,140. A trend is bearish as price is making lower lows and lower highs. $1,200 is important intermediate resistance level. Ichimoku cloud indicators point sideways implying that today we may see a pause to the decline as long as we hold above $1,158.
The weekly chart remains fully bearish in all time frames. According to the weekly chart, any upward reversal will find strong resistance at $1,215 where the kijun-sen (yellow line) is found. A longer-term trend remains bearish. Long-term resistance is at $1,250-70.
General overview for 11/03/2015 08:55 CET
Support/Resistance:
1.2564 - Intraday Support
1.2597 - Intraday Support
1.2703 - Intraday Resistance
1.2717 - WR1
Trading recommendations:
All buy orders should now be closed (TP was hit as anticipated) and traders should wait for the corrective cycle gets completed and consider opening buy orders again from the 1.2597 - 1.2564 zone.
General overview for 11/03/2015 08:30 CET
The current Elliott wave to follow is the alternate count 2 presented a couple of days ago. In this count we can track an impulsive wave development from wave 4 blue high at the level of 135.88. The wave five decline looks like it is completed and it has been labeled as wave 1 or wave A with the bottom at the level of 129.22. Please notice that this low might be only the first wave of the overall impulsive decline in wave 5 blue. More downside decline is still possibleas long as the level of 130.71 is not broken.
Support/Resistance:
129.10 - WS1
129.22 - Intraday Support
130.71 - Intraday Resistance
131.85 - Weekly Pivot
Trading recommendations:
Buy orders should be open only if the level of 130.71 is clearly violated with a minimum hourly candle close above this level. Moreover, the price action might get choppy and full of whipsaws.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/USD pair is seen to be testing the back side of a long-term resistance trend line which would act as support around 1.5020/50 levels. As depicted on the Daily Chart here, the pair is seen to be trading at 1.5070 levels and a bullish signal appearance here would bring back bulls into picture. It is recommended to initiate long positions now at 1.5070 with risk at 1.4900. Please also note that prices are holding the fibonacci 0.786 support of a rally between 1.4950 and 1.5550 respectively. Bulls are expected to regain control any time soon and resume an uptrend, pushing prices higher towards at least 1.5920 levels if not higher. Immediate support is seen at 1.4950, while resistance is seen at 1.5550 (interim) respectively, according to daily chart setups.
Trading recommendations:
Initiate long positions now, (1.5060/70), stop is at 1.4900, a target is at 1.5920.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The USD/JPY pair has hit fresh highs at 122.00 levels yesterday before pulling back sharply towards 121.00 levels. As depicted on the hourly chart setup, the pair has broken a short-term support line for now and is expected to face resistance at 121.60 levels which is fibonacci 0.618 of yesterdays drop from 122.00 to 121.00 levels. A bearish reaction at 121.60 levels could push the USD/JPY pair towards 120.10 levels, where an intermediary support trend line is passing. A break of the trend line could prove further bearish, and push towards 119.00 levels at the coming sessions. Immediate support is seen at 119.80 levels, while resistance is seen at 121.60 levels (interim), followed by 122.00 respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Sell at 121.60, stop at 122.30, a target is at 120.00.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
An hourly chart setup has been depicted here for EUR/USD, to determine short-term resistance and support levels and find a potential entry. The pair seems to have possibly made bottoms around 1.0660/70 levels as seen here. A break above 1.0720 levels would confirm that a short-term low is in place at 1.0660 and the pair is headed higher towards at least 1.0860 levels (towards intermediary resistance line). It is recommended to initiate long positions on dips after 1.0720 levels break with risk at 1.0600. On the flip side, a drop below 1.0660 levels could be sold with risk at 1.0720. Immediate support is seen at 1.0650 (interim), while resistance is seen at 1.0720 levels respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Flat for now. Sell below 1.0660, stop at 1.0720 or buy on dips after 1.0720 breaks.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair has dropped to fresh lows at 129.19 levels yesterday as seen here. This drop has taken out our stops at 130.00 yet again. Please make note that the last drop yesterday could be a final one before a reversal towards 137.50 levels and higher. Enough divergence is seen on the daily chart setup , which is indicative of a potential reversal. An aggressive trade setup could be to initiate fresh long positions with risk at 128.00 while a more conservative strategy could remain flat for now and for further evidence of a bullish signal on Daily Charts. Immediate support is seen at 128.00 while major resistance is now seen at 137.50 respectively.
Trading recommendations:
1. Aggressive trade setup is to initiate long positions now (129.60/65), stop is at 128.00, a target is at 137.50.
2. Conservative trade setup is to remain flat.
Good luck!
Analysis of USD AGAINST CAD & JPY
USD/CAD
The stronger US data raises hope for the soonest interest rates hikes. The greenback is painting a better bull picture against CAD & Yen. At yesterday's session, the pair manage to break above 1.2700, but effect gone wasted. Today at the Asian session, the USD is trading higher against the CAD. The parallel resistance seems at 1.2700. The pair has been in a consolidation range for 25 sessions between 1.2350 and 1.2700 giving a possible upside breakout today. The weekly support is set at 1.2350 and monthly is at 1.2300. The weekly resistance is found at 1.2700. Bulls can challenge 1.2970, in case the prices close above 1.2700. The intraday support is seen at 1.2670 and 1.2600. As we recommended earlier, on a weekly positional view, until the prices close above 1.2350, buying remains in play with targets at 1.2565, 1.2660, and 1.2680. All the targets met. Overall, the picture favors buying on dips. For an intraday, we advise buying with targets at 1.2660 and 1.2690. We can expect strong upswing looms above 1.2700.
Trade: we remain in buying.
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USD/JPY
Japan's core machinery orders again disappointed with a decease by 1.7% from a 8.3% uptick. The pair managed to breach a previous high, but was unable to hold its gains. We have been recommending buying on every dip. Now, we are revising the targets at 124, 125.00, and 125.75. The prices are making higher lows and higher highs on the h4 chart. Support has climbed from 118.20 to 119.80. It's a good sign for further room on the upswing. If the price closes above 121.85 on a weekly basis, we can see 128.00 as well. At Friday's session, we advised buying sl 119.80 with targets at 120.00, 120.20, and 120.50. Yesterday, we extended our targets to 121.50 and 121.80. All the targets met. It's a one side move all the way to new highs. The pair has intraday support at 120.80. Another upswing looms above 122.0. Until a h4 candle closes above 119.80, the long trade remains in play. The overall picture favours buying on dips.
Trade: we remain buyers.
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EUR/USD: This pair is very weak, and it may continue to do so. Only an exponential gain of stamina of the EUR could reverse this bearish trend. As it was mentioned earlier this week, a break below the strong support line at 1.0500 would mean that the euro would reach parity with the USD. If that fails to occur, the price is likely to stay above the aforementioned support line.
USD/CHF:This currency trading instrument has continued its slow and steady journey to the upside. The great psychological level of 1.0000 is under siege now and with more bullishness in the market, it is likely to be breached to the upside. The buying pressure would remain intact as long as the EUR/USD pair is weak.
GBP/USD: The Cable is currently volatile and the battle between bulls and bears is intense. We are watching the accumulation territory around 1.5000. While the price may test that accumulation zone, there could also be some desperate attempts by bulls to push the price upwards.
USD/JPY: This is also a bullish market and it is supposed to keep on being bullish, though there could be occasional pullbacks. The price is above the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is above the level of 50. The demand level at 120.00 is being watched.
EUR/JPY: As expected, the EUR/JPY pair has continued its downward journey. As a result of a serious weakness in the euro, the bearish confirmation pattern is very strong in the market. Demand zones around 129.00 and 128.50 could be tested, even if the EUR/JPY pair rallies this week.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair has raised through 1.5080 levels as discussed on March 09, 2015. The pair could push higher into 1.5150 from here on, but possibility remains for a dip first. As depicted here, the pair could initially drop towards 1.4920/30 levels before resuming a rally. Please note that the uptrend remains very much intact since the huge drop on January 15, 2015, and bulls are expected to remain in control till prices stay above 1.4760 levels. Immediate support is seen at 1.4820, followed by 1.4760,1.4656 and lower while resistance is seen at 1.5150, 1.5400 and higher respectively. Also note that the pair remains buy on dips since both short- and medium-term support trend lines remain intact.
Trading recommendations:
Look to buy around 1.4923 levels, stop is at 1.4800, a target is at 1.5150 and higher.
Good luck!
GOLD
The stronger US dollar pushed the yellow metal's prices down to a 4-month low. After Friday's US jobs data, the yellow metal fell 2.5% and is still extending its lows. The US dollar is going on its upswing towards the 100 mark. Every day, hopes are reinforcing that US Federal Reserve will lift interest rates earlier. The physical demand is weak as well. China's physical buying is drying up and signalling more room for the downside. A stronger USD capped the precious metal. The US Federal Reserve is leaning in favor of the sooner interest rates hike. Until prices close below $1,200.00, bears have the upper hand. The intraday support is found at $1,161.00 and resistance is seen at $1,165.00 and $1,170.00. The weekly resistance is set between $1,184.00. We recommend intraday buying above $1,165.00, safe buying above $1,170.00 with targets at $1,170.00 and $1,175.00
Resistance: $1,175.00, $1,179.10, $1,187.00.
Support: $1,163.00, $1,155.00, $1,150.00.
Trade: selling below $1,161.00. Buying above $1,165.00.
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GBP/USD
A fall in commodity prices leads to a fall in interest rates. Mark Carney hinted, UK's inflation is likely to fall to zero. Today, traders eye UK's manufacturing production report. We expect an uptick 0.2% from the previous 0.1%. The cable erased mostly of its gains at yesterday's session. Ahead of the manufacturing production data the cable is trading with a mild positive bias at the Asian session. We are bullish for the British pound against crosses, but still remain cautious about the US dollar. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled in May. Market participants expect the pound to get under downward pressure. A trading pattern is framed between 1.5140 and 1.5030. The support seems at 1.5029. The cable has parallel support between 1.4990 and 1.4950. The monthly support is seen at 1.4810. In case, the price closes below 1.4950, we can expect 1.4800 in the medium term and 1.4350 in the longer term. The cross EUR/GBP is also weighing on the pound. The eurozone is the major trading partner of the UK. We recommend fresh intraday selling below 1.5020 with targets at 1.4990, and 1.4960. The panic will be triggered below 1.4950 towards 1.4560 initially. Until the prices close below 1.5190, the near-term bearish view remains on play. Until the prices close below 1.5300, the intra-month bearish view remains on play. The strong momentum will ignite only above 1.5190. Bulls will regain mild strength, in case the pair closes above 1.5140 on a daily basis.
Resistance: 1.5100, 1.5170, 1.5200.
Support: 1.5029, 1.4990, 1.4950.
Trade: buying above 1.5110 with targets at 1.5135 and 1.5170.
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GBP/JPY
Japan's core machinery orders again disappointed with a decrease by 1.7% from 8.3% uptick. The pair has been making head-and-shoulder pattern on the h4 chart. Height from the neck line is 350 pips. The pair been struggling to close above 20Dsma for 4 days. The cross has intraday support at 182.10 or 100Dsma.
The weekly support is seen between 181.47 and 181.20 or 50Dsma. The parallel resistance seems at 183.70. On a monthly basis, until the cross closes above 181.20, the long trade remains in play. We are bullish for the British pound against crosses, but still remain cautious about the US dollar. The trading pattern is shifted to 181.50 and 184.00 from 185.00 and 183.50. The panic will be triggered below 181.50 towards 181.00,180.00 and 176.50. At yesterday's session, our trailing stop loss was taken out at 182.80. Today, again we recommend buying again with sl 182.10 with targets at 182.80 and 182.90. Huge upswing for intraday looms at 183.00 to 184.00. A new upswing looms above 184.20. In case the price closes above 184.20, it can extend its rally towards 185.00 and 186.85. Besides, in case the price closes below 181.00, a steep fall will ignite.
Trade: positional buying sl 181.20 remains in play.
Intraday trade: buying sl 182.10
On a positional basis, bulls must try to close above 185.00 as early as they can.
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EUR/USD
The French industrial production jumped in January. Over the last three months, output rose slightly in the manufacturing sector (+0.2% q-o-q), as well as in the industry as a whole (+0.2%, q-o-q). Manufacturing output of the last three months fell compared to the same months of the previous year (–0.7% y-o-y). It declined more markedly in overall industrial output (–0.9% y-o-y). But Italy's industrial production decreased. In January 2015, the industrial production index seasonally adjusted decreased by 0.7% compared to December. The percentage change of the last three months on average was +0.1% compared to the previous three months. It was a mixed outcome from the eurozone. Among the eurozone economies, France is showing minor signs of recovery. France is the second biggest economy in the eurozone.
Today, traders are awaiting BoE Governor Carney speech and French nonfarm payroll data. We do not expect changes in Q4.
Technical view. The pair broke below August 2008 lows, aiming for 1.0560 and 1.0530 in the near term. Eventually, it can go below 1.0000. The prices are closed and trading far below hourly moving averages. Until prices close below 1.0.960, use every rise to sell this week. The weekly resistance is found between 1.0780 and 1.0960. Forget buying, until the price closes below 1.0960 on a positional basis. The near-term target seems at 1.0560. The longer-term target seems at 0.9000 in case prices close below 1.0760 on a monthly basis. The downtrend remains strong. We are recommending lower targets initially at sub 1.1000 and later 0.9000. At yesterday's session, we recommended fresh intraday selling below 1.0820 with targets at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The pair made a low at 1.0660.
Resistance: 1.0740, 1.0780, 1.0825.
Support: 1.0680, 1.0600, 1.0560.
Trade: use a rise to sell.
Intraday, selling below 1.0680 with targets at 1.0600 and 1.0575.
EUR/JPY
Mixed economic data punched the euro against JPY. After Japan's GDP release, the pair broke the previous swing low. The cross is testing its fate at 129.00 or 200Mema. Technically, the cross broke below the 200Wsma, 100Msma, and 200Msma. In case, the price closes below 129.00, bears can challenge 128.00 and 125.00 in the near and short term. We still recommend selling at 132.35 with targets at 131.20, 130.90, 129.50, and even 129.00. Yesterday, the cross made a low at 129.22. The lowest lows and lower highs have been developing on the h4 chart, suggesting more room for a downside is yet to come. The intraday resistance is set between 130.70 and 130.80. Steep fall will be triggered below 129.00 with targets at 128.00, 125.00, and even 122.50.
Key levels to watch: 129.00 monthly. The pair broke and closed below the weekly key support level, now focus is shifted to the monthly support at 129.00.
If prices close below 129.60 on weekly basis, the last hope seems at 129.00.
Weekly support: 129.00.
Monthly support: 129.00.
Trade: fresh selling below 129.00 for safe trades.
Risky trades: buying with sl 129.00.
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Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower towards $15.60 level yesterday and remained shy by just a few cents off the support at $15.50 level. The metal might form a higher low now, and could be preparing to resume its uptrend soon. Please note that the fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally between sub $14.00 and $18.50 is also passing through the level of $15.46, where the metal could remain supported. Bulls are expected to regain control back till prices stay above $15.50 and subsequently $14.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.40/50 levels, followed by $14.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.00 level, followed by $17.40/50, $18.40/50, and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop below $15.40/50, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver dropped lower towards $15.60 level yesterday and remained shy by just a few cents off the support at $15.50 level. The metal might form a higher low now and is likely to be preparing to resume its uptrend soon. Please note that the fibonacci 0.786 support of the rally between sub $14.00 and $18.50 is also passing through the level of $15.46, where the metal could remain supported. Bulls are expected to regain control back till prices stay above $15.50 and subsequently $14.00 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.40/50 levels, followed by $14.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $17.00 level, followed by $17.40/50, $18.40/50, and higher respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long for now, stop below $15.40/50, target is open.
Good luck!
