Overview:
In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. The price has tested the level of 1.4307 in an average volume. The price found support around the level of 1.4330 (our Fibonacci expansion 61.8%). The short-term trend is still neutral. So, be careful when trading EUR/NZD. According to price action on 4H time frame, we can see a pin bar and rejection from our Fibonacci expansion 61.8%. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The first resistance level is around the price of 1.4440.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.4447
R2: 1.4462
R3: 1.4486
Support levels:
S1: 1.4400
S2: 1.4384
S3: 1.4360
Trading recommendations: We are in neutral trend. So we need to a clear direction in the next period for better trading opportunities. Anyway, buying positions are preferable.
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,178.30 in a high volume. Accoridng to the daily time frame, we can observe supply in a volume below the average (weak supply). I have placed Fiobonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I have got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of $1,190.00 (already broken) and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,172.00. Anyway, be careful when selling gold at this stage since we have a weak supply in the background.
Daily Fibonacci pivot points:
Resistance levels :
R1: 1,195.68
R2: 1,199.78
R3: 1,206.43
Support levels :
S1: 1,182.38
S2: 1,178.28
S3: 1,171.60
Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage since we have a weak supply in the background.
Overview:
On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending channel was established at the level of 1.5170-1.5200. This indicates bullish sentiment on the market.
A projected target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance).
Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.
Significant bearish pressure was applied at the price of 1.5200 (R2), then 1.4950 (R1 = broken weekly bottom).
Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.
Recently, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a bullish head and shoulders reversal pattern.
Fixation above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target towards 1.5200.
Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts. If so, bearish breakdown of 1.4700 is needed to resume this bearish scenario.
Trading recommendations:
Conservative traders can wait for the H4 closure above 1.5000 for a short-term buy entry.
TP levels should be set at 1.5080, 1.5120, and finally at 1.5200.
SL should be set as daily closure below 1.4900.
Overview:
Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level the market looks quite overbought.
However, bullish pressure is still expressed as the previous weekly closure came above 1.2550 (consolidation zone mid-line).
Successive lower highs were established within the wedge pattern. However, the market expressed a bullish breakout above 1.2550-1.2600 shortly after.
The market failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that calls for confirmation (daily closure below 1.2350).
On the other hand, the support level around 1.2350 (lower limit of the wedge pattern) and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level) have been providing support for successive weeks on the daily chart.
In the long term, a projected target for USD/CAD wedge pattern would be located near the level of 1.3050 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).
Last week, the resulting weekly candlestick came strongly positive (bullish hammer) closing above the price level of 1.2550 (mid-zone of the consolidation range) that failed to provide enough resistance for the pair.
This enhances the bullish side of the market. The next resistance level, hence the next target to meet the pair, is located at 1.2790.
Weekly closure above 1.2750 (upper limit of the current consolidation range) is mandatory to pursue towards higher projection targets.
Trading recommendations:
As anticipated for risky traders, bearish pullback towards 1.2350 was considered for buy entry that is running in profits now. S/L can be advanced to the price level of 1.2400.
Target levels to be visited at 1.2850 and 1.3050.
The market aggressively pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.
The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, the EUR/USD pair has been already pushed slightly below the monthly demand level around 1.0550 (established on January 1997) where some bullish recovery was applied as anticipated.
The price action should be observed around the current monthly demand level looking for monthly closure below 1.0570 as theoretical long-term targets are projected around 0.9450.
Obvious bearish breakdown of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.
Full projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.
As anticipated, after such a long bearish rally (which started off 1.1300) bullish rejection was around 1.0570 (monthly demand level).
Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving towards 1.1150.
We mentioned that daily persistence above the price zone of 1.0850-1.0860 (recent demand zone) is a must to maintain the bullish corrective movement towards 1.1100 where a long-term sell position can be offered.
On the other hand, daily closure below 1.0850 (already took place yesterday) invalidates the bullish correction, bringing the EUR/USD pair back towards 1.0650-1.0600 (weekly low).
The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.5000, which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.
Bulls managed to push towards higher levels, including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).
Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 resulting in the formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks.
Demand levels located around 1.5200 and 1.5000 failed to provide enough support for the GBP/USD pair. This was followed by bearish decline towards 1.4700.
Last week, strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week.
As anticipated, the price zone around 1.4960-1.5000 was expected to provide SUPPLY at retesting. It corresponds to the upper limit of the long-term depicted channel, 38.2% Fibonacci level and a broken weekly demand, which goes back to January 2015.
Note that daily persistence above the price level of 1.5090 (50% Fibo level) indicates a quick bullish spike towards the price level of 1.5380 (projection target).
Recently, GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone around 1.4960-1.5000, which was breached two weeks ago.
Evident bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart near the price levels around 1.4700 (weekly low).
Fixation above 1.4700-1.4720 enhanced a bullish side of the market allowing another bullish swing towards 1.4990 to take place.
Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to trade above the price level of 1.4970 as a flag pattern is being expressed since the price levels of 1.4970-1.5000 were visited.
Conservative traders should note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4700 and 1.4970 until a breakout occurs in either direction (the current consolidation range was anticipated in the previous articles).
However, a quick bearish pullback towards the price level of 1.4720 (daily demand level) may be watched for a quick counter-trend buy entry. Stop loss should be located below 1.4625.
General overview for 31/03/2015 16:05 CET
The demand had broken through the grey rectangle zone between the levels of 1.2700 - 1.2721 and now it looks like the five wave impulsive wave progression to the upside is completed. If it is so, then the corrective cycle should be in progress now with the first wave a purple done already and waves (b and c purple) are next to unfold. The first target for the corrective cycle to hit is the zone between the levels of 1.2682 - 1.2650. Please notice that it might still be just a sub-wave of much larger corrective cycle coming in.
Support/Resistance:
1.2833 - Swing High
1.2783 - Intraday Resistance
1.2771 - WR2
1.2712 - WR1
1.2704 - Intraday Support
1.2682 - 1.2650 - Target Zone for Corrective Cycle
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should exit the buy orders at the current price levels and wait for the corrective cycle to complete before opening any more buy orders. The situation will be monitored closely for next trade opportunity on this pair.
General overview for 31/03/2015 15:50 CET
The current Elliott wave count is the last chance for bulls to push the market higher in order to complete the wave (c) blue, otherwise the alternative count will be in play. Please notice that the bullish divergence is supporting the upward scenario.
Support/Resistance:
127.55 - WS2
128.49 - WS1
128.65 - Intraday Support
129.14 - Intraday Resistance
130.00 - Weekly Pivot
Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should refrain from trading and wait for more clear pattern to emerge sooner or later.
Overview :
Overview :
The price of the GBP/USD pair has not stabilized yet because the trend has been moving between 1.4890 and 1.4759 since yesterday. Also, it might note that the levels of 1.4888 and 1.4752 represent the weekly pivot point and the double bottom respectively. Furthermore, it should be mentioned that resistance has been already set at the level of 1.4888 and support is placed at 1.4703. It would be wise to be careful in this area. So, the first step is to wait in this spot before investing. As a result, the GBP/USD pair is likely to start showing the signs of the bullish market at the level of 1.4700. In other words, it will be a good idea to buy above 1.4700 with the first target at 1.4836 in order to try to close above minor resistance. Then, it is going to call for an uptrend to continue its bullish movement towards 1.4888 to test the weekly pivot point for forming the strong resistance at this price in the H1 chart. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at the spot of 1.4888/1.4900. The level is likely to be acting as strong resistance today. Hence, it is providing a clear signal for sell deals at the levels of 1.4888/1.4900 again with the target at 1.4760. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above 1.4915.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/USD pair has made intraday lows at 1.0700/10 today before pulling back higher. As seen in the chart view here, the pair failed to push through 1.1050 recently. It is quite possible that the pair could turn lower towards the longer downtrend and print fresh lows. Please note that the pair has turned around the Fibonacci 0.50 resistance just at the level of 1.1050 and is also passing the resistance trend line. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1050 followed by 1.1120,1.1500, and higher, while support is seen at 1.0600 followed by 1.0460 and lower respectively.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now and look to sell rallies.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The EUR/JPY pair is seen to be dropping below 128.50 and could be heading towards fresh lows at the sessions to come by. It is recommended to exit long positions for now and prepare to sell rallies. Immediate support is seen at 128.00 followed by 127.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at 130.50 followed by 131.50, 132.00, and higher respectively. The pair could drop below 128.00 and find support ahead of 127.00. It remains to be seen if prices continue falling below 128.00 before initiating positions.
Trading recommendations:
Exit long positions for now and remain flat.
Good luck!
The USDX did a breakout at the level of 98.01 to the upside during the Monday session, and now it is looking to reach the resistance zone around 99.12. The current fractal structure is pointing to the upwards. In the last articles, we mentioned the idea about a considerable rebound taking in place at the support level of 96.60.
The bullish bias is now very clear in the H1 chart, as the USDX is doing a consolidation above the 200 SMA and the support level at 98.36. If the USDX breaks the resistance level at 98.77, it would open the way to reach the next resistance zone around 99.16. Now, the current price actions are all in favor of bulls, as the upward momentum is strong.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 99.12 / 100.35
Dailychart's support levels: 98.01 / 96.60
H1 chart's resistance levels: 98.77 / 99.16
H1 chart's support levels: 98.36 / 97.90
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 98.77, take profit is at 99.16, and stop loss is at 98.37.
The GBP/USD pair is currently riding the overall bearish trend and its looking to reach the support level at 1.4649. The general structure of the pair tells us about future strong falls, as the GBP/USD pair was forming fractals below the resistance zone around 1.4948. In the daily chart, the lower low pattern is still bearish. The MACD indicator is still at neutral territory.
The yesterday's session was bearish for the GBP/USD pair, because it was looking to reach new lows, as the pair has been moving inside a low range. Immediate support is located at the level of 1.4774 and we could expect for more falls until 1.4721. Be patient and try to ride the bearish side on the GBP/USD pair in the intraday way as much as possible.
Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4820 / 1.4948
Dailychart's support levels: 1.4649 / 1.4505
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4842 / 1.4921
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4774 / 1.4721
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4774, take profit is at 1.4721, and stop loss is at 1.4825.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The GBP/CHF pair seems to be breaking above 1.4400 at the moment. The next resistance should be met at 1.4630. Please note that the pair has bounced off the Fibonacci 0.382 support of the rally between the levels of 1.2800 and 1.5200 respectively. Potential still remains for a fresh high above 1.5200 from here on. Immediate support is seen at 1.4000, followed by 1.3850, while resistance is seen at 1.4630 followed by 1.4800 and higher respectively. Bulls should remain in control until prices stay above 1.4200.
Trading recommendations:
Remain long, stop at 1.4100, target is open.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Silver correction continues and it has reached the level of $16.45, which is Fibonacci 0.382 support, before pulling back. The metal could still drift lower towards $16.00 around the Fibonacci 0.618 levels as depicted here. It is recommended to initiate long positions around the level of $16.00 with risk below $15.30 for now. Immediate support is seen at $15.80 followed by $15.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.40/50 followed by $18.40/50 and higher respectively. A potential right shoulder is also seen to unfold at the level of $16.00.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now, look for buying at $16.00.
Good luck!
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Gold has been retracing since hitting highs at $1,220.00 last week. The metal has reached Fibonacci 0.50 support levels at $1,180.00 and a drop lower would move prices to the level of $1,172.00 which is Fibonacci 0.618 support as well. Please note that trend-line resistance turned support is also seen at $1,170.00/72.00. It is recommended to initiate long positions around the levels of $1,170.00/72.00, on a bullish bounce. Immediate support is seen at $1,172.00 followed by $1,160.00, $1,140.00, and lower while resistance is seen at $1,223.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control until prices stay above $1,140.00.
Trading recommendations:
Flat for now, look to buy around $1,170.00
Good luck!
The Dollar index continues to show signs of strength. The reversal from 96 is likely to be a confirmed trend change and resumption of the uptrend towards new highs above 101. The longer-term trend remains bullish as the weekly chart is confirmed and held above support.
The Dollar index reversed from the 61.8% retracement purple area. Now, it is trying to break above resistance of the red ichimoku cloud at 98-98.20. Breaking above this area will be a medium-term buy signal that will increase the chances of the bullish scenario. Support is found at 97. Breaking below 97 and a rejection at 98 is not something a bull would like to see.
The weekly chart remains fully bullish with the price holding above the tenkan-sen and the Chikou span taking a positive slope. Bulls need to be cautious as the kijun-sen and tenkan-sen are flat. This week's candle is gpoing to be be important to see if we have a follow through the last week's reversal candle. I remain bullish as long as a weekly close is above the tenkan-sen.
Gold price continued its downward move towards short-term support at $1,180-75 as expected. Now, it is testing the short-term support levels and bulls need to step in if they want to push the price back above $1,200. The longer-term trend remains bearish and the weekly chart makes me favor the bearish scenario towards $1,130 and lower.
Short-term support is seen at $1,172 at the 61.8% retracement. This is also a lower boundary of the green Ichimoku cloud. As long as gold price is above that level, bulls have hope for an upward reversal.
Last week's high is important resistance as the price got rejected at the kijun-sen. We have a bearish crossing between the tenkan-sen and kijun-sen. If resistance at $1,220 is broken, we should expect gold price to move towards red cloud resistance at $1,250. Important long-term support is at $1,130. In case it gets broken, a medium-term move towards $1,000 and $900 can be expected.
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has nearly forfeited all the bullish gains it got last week. The current near-term weakness in the market has put the extant bullish bias in jeopardy. There is a good possibility that things will go completely bearish if the price goes below the support lines at 1.0750 and 1.0700.
USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument continues to make its efforts to go upwards with some visible results. A movement above the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 would mean the end of the current bearish bias and the beginning of a good bullish bias.
GBP/USD: The cable moved only sideways throughout last week, but the price started consolidating to the downside trying the accumulation territory at 1.4800. Currently, a long trade does not look as the best thing for this market, unless the price reaches the distribution territory around 1.5050, which seems a far cry now.
USD/JPY: The bullish effort is paying off. The price has gone above the demand level at 120.00. Now, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The next targets for bulls are located at the supply levels at 120.50 and 121.00. Those are the target for this week, because the bullish expectations are strong.
EUR/JPY: We would recommend to stay away from this cross until there is a vivid trending movement. The current situation on the market is a kind of dicey and one would need to wait to see where the coming momentum will take the price. Nevertheless, a movement to the upside is very likely.
Technical summary:
The expected upward rally is still on track. We are gathering strength to accelerate higher towards 1.4595 and much higher in the long term. In the short term, we expect minor support at 1.4389 to be able to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.4495 calling for acceleration to 1.4595 and above. A break below 1.4389 is likely to delay the expected upside pressure, but the potential downside should be limited to support at 1.4362.
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.4335 and are going to keep our stop at 1.4275 for now. If you are not long EUR yet, buy closer to 1.4389 or upon a break above 1.4457 with the same stop at 1.4275.
Technical summary:
As long as minor resistance at 131.51 protects the upside, we will be looking for more downside pressure. A break below support at 128.99 and more importantly a break below support at 128.33 will call for one final decline closer to 125.98 before the impulsive decline from 149.55 finally is over and a new impulsive rally can be expected. Only an unexpected break above 131.51 will indicate that wave C of the expanded flat correction, which we have been tracking since late December 2013 terminated at 126.87 and a new impulsive rally is already developing.
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 129.85 with stop placed at 130.40. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 129.67 with the same stop.
Yellow metal slipped from 2-week highs and is trading below $1,200.00 mark after the Yellen's testimony. Chair Janet Yellen said she expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. That subsequent increase will be gradual without following a predictable path. "I expect that conditions may warrant an increase in the federal funds rate target sometime this year,” she said.
After the initial increase, officials won't follow “any predetermined course of tightening" that involves similar-sized increases at regular intervals, Yellen said on a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California March 27, 2015. Pending home sales in February increased to their highest level since June 2013 as sizeable gains in the Midwest and West were offset by smaller declines in the Northeast and South, according to the National Association of Realtors. These factors helped USD to rebound.
The metal price rejected at 20Wsma. Parallel support was found at $1,179.00. We recommend selling below $1,179.00 with targets at $1,176.00, $1,170.00, $1,167.00, and $1,164.00. Intraday resistance is seen at $1,191.00 and weekly resistance is seen at $1,197.00.Until the metal closes below $1,197.00 bears have the upper hand. The 20Dsma is found at $1,176.50. It is likely to lead to bears' grip in case the price closes below this level. In the hourly chart, lower lows and lower highs formation is expanding. Today, traders eye on consumer confidence index. In case of negative reading, the metal will extend its fall towards $1,176.50 and $1,168.00. It can bounce towards $1,194.00.
Trade:Selling below $1,179.00
