Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 20, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 20/05/2014 07:40 CET

The corrective cycle of wave 2 black is still in progress and one more push to the upside is needed to complete the wave c purple of the overall progression. The target levels are at the intraday resistance at the level of 139.45 and in case of an extension at the level of 139.87. When this levels are hit, the failure is expected and downtrend resumption will make the intraday support at the level of 138.96, the important one, because any breakout lower would mean the low will be tested. Please notice that this type of a correction might get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:

138.60 - Wave b Bottom|Swing Low|

138.96 - Intraday Support

139.45 - Intraday Resistance | Weekly Pivot|

139.87 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

There are two good levels to open a sell limit orders for a swing trade: 139.45 and 139.87 (the second one is better). SL for both orders should be at the level of 141.08 and TP is open for now (136.25 might be the first one).

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 20, 2014 Trend News

The Australian monetary policy meeting minutes have just been released. The current accomidative monetary has a positive effect on Australia's economy. The board decided to maintain the cash rate at a low of 2.5%. The recent development indicated that domestic economy evolved much as expected, with further indications that growth picked up a little over the past two quarters.

The pair broke the lower trend line. Today's high is most crucial in coming sessions. As of now in Asia's trading session, the pair made a high at 0.9334. The pair is reaching towards the crucial support levels at 0.926. The RSI in the daily chart is indicating "selling the rise" strategy. If the pair closes below 0.926, it will fall to 0.9150 levels, which are a buying zone. The weekly resistance was placed at 0.9408 levels and weekly support is placed at 0.926.

For an intraday perspective, the pair will favor the buying side. The buying zone exists between 0.9288-0.9280. Traders can buy the dip and wait patiently. On the up side, the resistance levels exist at 0.9305, 0.9330 and 0.9360 levels. On the down side, if the pair breaks below 0.9279, it will fall to 0.9270 and 0.9254 levels.

We expect the correction will complete at 0.9292-0.9290 levels.

0.9407-0.9326= 0.0081

Resistance exists at 0.9299-0.9305 levels, above 0.9305, it will spike to 0.9330 and 0.9360.

0.0081-0.9373= 0.9292

buy and hold patiently

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 20, 2014 Trend News

The pair has been in a down trend from 105.44 levels. It is taking crucial support at 50-week SMA at 100.74 levels. The pair has broken the supporting trend line. If the pair breaks the crucial support, it will go to 98.3 levels. The weekly RSI is in consolidation phase. The pair favors buying side with sl at 100.74 levels on a closing basis. It can fly up to 101.80, 102 and 102.36 levels.

On the down side, the pair comes down in any case, buyers zone will still available between 101.11-100.80 levels. The short-term strength will gain above 102.36 levels. The inital resistance level exists at 101.67 levels, above this, it will fly immediately to 102.12 and 102.25 levels.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 20, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD

The pair has been trading in a down trend from 1.1053 levels. It has support at 1.0814 (recent low). The "buying the dip" strategy is prefered on a positional basis for the next couple of days. On the down side, if the pair breaks the inital small support at 1.0850, it will fall to the previous low made on May 08 at 1.0814 levels. In case of a break below this, it will drift up to 1.0770 and 1.0652 levels. The RSI in the daily chart favors buying side.

The shorter-term trend reversal will take place only above 1.1053. The pair is unable to cross the descending trading pattern. On the down side, the gates are open for 1.0671, this view is valid until the pair trades below the 1.1053 levels. The RSI in the weekly chart favors selling the rise.

Intraday-

The pair is facing strong resistance zone between 1.0880 (50-hour SMA) at 1.0890 levels. If the pair is able to cross these resistance levels, then it can fly up to 1.0926 and 1.0952 levels. On the down side, it has support at 1.0870, 1.0859 and 1.0850 levels.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 20, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

Short-term forecast-

The pair was rejected at higher levels and undergone through a correction. The bearish view will continue in the medium term. The pair has broken the lower supporting trend line and closed below it; this is an initial red flag. Last week, the pair was unable to cross the breakdown level breaking the initial support level (1.367), and it still trading below the trend line, this adds more fuel to the bearish views. The trading limit was fixed between 1.367-1.3775. If it closes this week below the 1.367 levels, it opens the gate for 1.3545, 1.34 and 1.323 levels. If the pair manages to hold the 1.367 levels, again we need to wait for another week. On the up side, the pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3775, which if broken, then the pair can fly up to 1.3890-1.39 levels. We prefer to sell on rally in the short term. The new up trend will start only above 1.40 levels.

3-4-day trading perspective

The pair is struggling to cross the 1.373 levels. It's trading range is fixed between 1.3735-1.368. But the daily momentum oscillators are producing a positive wave. The pair has been not responding to the positive waves for the last 4 trading sessions. It gets stuck in the trading band. RSI is still consolidating as it has been for the last couple of days. We expect something is cooking inside. In the technical view, we expect the pair will travel towards 1.3775, 1.38 and 1.3850 levels.

On the down side, the pair has strong support at 1.364, 1.36 (200-day EMA) levels. The pair will get more strength if sustained above 1.3735 levels.

Intraday-

In Asia's trading session, the pair opened on a slight bullish note trading at 1.3710. The hourly trading range is narrowed between 1.3689-1.3735 levels. The RSI in the H4 chart is giving positive divergence. We expect the green ticks will print up to 1.375 (50-hour SMA), 1.3763, 1.3775 and 1.38 levels (200-hour EMA). In the evening session, we expect the buyer bids.

Recommendations- cmp 1.3711.

Safe traders- Buy above 1.3735.

Risky traders- Buy and hold at cmp, add even more at a dip if comes.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 20, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German PPI m/m.The US will not release any economic data, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3780.

Strong Resistance:1.3771.

Original Resistance: 1.3758.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3745.

Target Inner Area: 1.3701.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3679.

Original Support: 1.3666.

Strong Support: 1.3653.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3644.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3666 and 1.3758. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3653 and by 1.3771 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3644 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3780 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3679 and at 1.3745, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3701.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 20, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m and the US will not release any economic data today. So there is a big probability USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.03.

Resistance. 2: 101.83.

Resistance. 1: 101.63.

Support. 1: 101.39.

Support. 2: 101.19.

Support. 3: 100.98.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (100.98) and resistance 3 (102.03). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 20, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains below the 200 SMA and this sideways movements could last for the rest of the week, although the USDX could take a fall below the resistance level of 80.11 toward to the support level of 79.19. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the resistance level, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 79.93. If USDX is able to consolidate above the resistance level of 80.15, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.35, where the USDX may form a bullish pattern. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout at the level of 79.60, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.33. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX has consolidated above the 200 SMA, where the support level of 79.88, so it is very likely that the USDX rises to the resistance level of 80.15 in the coming hours. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.35. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.15, take profit is at 80.35, and stop loss is at 79.95.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 20, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD made no major moves during yesterday's session, so this pair had no major changes in the current trend. However, GBP/USD might be forming a bearish pattern and eventually, this pair could fall to the support level of 1.6766. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6663. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD continues to seek resistance at the 1.6841 level and this pair has already formed two fractals in that area. However, the GBP/USD remains above the 200 SMA. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6785, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6762. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H1 chart: This pair has found resistance again at 200 SMA, as this pair were unable to climb to the resistance level of 1.6850. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the support level of 1.6800, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6750. For now, the GBP/USD remains in a bearish bias. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Daily analysis of for Silver May 19, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As shown in the today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the support level of 19.20 with the upward trend line after its failure to break the support area last week. Currently, we must wait for re-testing the Support area again and closing below to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case, we will get a good opportunity to sell below the support level till testing the next support level of 18.90. Therefore, we can consider our first target few pips above this Support level, but as long as the price is still above the Support area this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.00), R2 (19.75), R1 (19.50), S1 (19.20), S2 (18.90), S3(18.70).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From the today's H4 chart, we can notice that the pair opened this week below the resistance level of 171.00 which would give the pair a good opportunity to start its bearish move. Actually and as shown, the pair took a slightly downward move and currently is trading above the support level of 170.00 and below the resistance level of 171.00. More bearish signals are still expected as long as the pair is trading below the resistance level, so we can consider our first target few pips above the support level 168.70, then it is preferred to wait for breaking this support level and closing 4H below to continue the bearish move.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (172.00), R2 (171.50), R1 (171.00), S1 (170.00), S2 (169.70), S3 (169.20).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, the GBP/USD pair found solid resistance that provided enough supply for two months until bullish breakout took place on May 1.

The recent lows at 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The daily chart shows successive bullish breakouts expressed above 1.6850 (the upper limit of a previous congestion zone), then above 1.6930 (the upper limit of the ongoing bullish wedge). The bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this breakout lost its bullish momentum during previous consolidations.

Price levels around 1.6990 provided evident rejection. This paused the ongoing bullish momentum.

The lower limit of the bullish WEDGE was broken down on Friday showing a full-body bearish daily candlestick.

The bears applied significant bearish pressure at retesting of 1.6900 (backside of the broken wedge). This enhanced the bearish pull-back towards 1.6767 as expected.

The GBP/USD showed bullish recovery after testing of 1.6730 leading to daily closure again above 1.6767 enhancing the bullish momentum of the market.

The bulls managed to record a higher value above the recent one at 1.6900. However, the ongoing market demand has been fulfilled around 1.6990 which led to a price decline again.

A bearish impulse took place towards 1.6820-1.6775 thus forming the right shoulder of a possible Head and Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.6830-1.6810.

The reversal wedge pattern applied enough bearish pressure to confirm the ongoing reversal pattern which got confirmed by breakdown of price zone of 1.6830-1.6810.

A bullish pull-back is taking place towards neckline of the reversal pattern. The price zone of 1.6830-1.6850 will probably offer a SELL entry with Stop Loss to be located above 1.6880.

Projection targets of this pattern extends down to 1.6775, 1.6720 and 1.6690.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 19, 2014 Trend News

In March, failure of the bulls to fixate above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure to form a bearish leg towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the bearish decline off 1.3965 which led to another ascending limb towards 1.3880.

The last bullish breakout above 1.3880 topped at 1.3950 (Notice the most recent top established around 1.3965) showing bearish domination of the market which formed another bearish leg.

The price level of 1.3800 has offered support for few weeks until we had bearish breakdown when the market expressed a strong full-body bearish daily candlestick as depicted on the chart.

Thus, a double-top reversal pattern is being established with neckline located at 1.3700 where a strong bullish daily candlestick was expressed indicating bullish presence around there.

Last week, the bears produced quite strong bearish reaction that broke-down successive support levels around 1.3800 and 1.3745.

This indicates the dominant bearish momentum with high probability to achieve the reversal pattern projection targets after breakdown of 1.3700 handle (neckline of the double-top pattern).

Previously, the depicted uptrend line (the blue trendline) came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3880.

The recent established bottom around 1.3810 could achieve higher value above 1.3880. The bulls topped at 1.3950. However, these levels corresponded to the upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel which applied significant bearish reaction.

A strong corrective movement towards 1.3850 and 1.3800 was executed immediately as expected. This led again towards 1.3770 and cleared the way towards 1.3690 ( previous prominent bottom ).

For the bulls, the price zone of 1.3710 - 1.3670 remains the nearest demand level for them to initiate a bullish corrective move towards 1.3740.

A short-term bullish "Head and Shoulders" pattern is being established on the 4H chart. The right shoulder was established on Friday around 1.3690 offering a valid BUY entry with stop loss located below 1.3640.

The bullish corrective movement will be targeting at 1.3800 as long as the recent bottom around 1.3650 remains defended by the bulls.

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GOLD analysis for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1,305.17. As you can see in the chart, our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at 1,290.00 took place successfully, and that caused the price to start upward movement and test the level of 1,305.64 on volume above the average. According to the Daily timeframe, we can observe strong bullish reactions in the background from our support 1,277.00 on higher volume, which is a sign that short-term selling looks very risky. According to H4 timeframe, we got strong rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (1,290.00). I found a potential resistance level at the price of 1,305.00 (swing low). If the price breaks the level of 1,305.00 on higher volume, we may see possible tetsting the level of 1,315.00 (previous swing high). Be careful with selling and watch for buying opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,293.25

R2: 1,294.09

R3: 1,295.47

Support levels:

S1: 1,290.49

S2: 1,289.65

S3: 1,288.27

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term selling since we got rejection from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading sideways, around the price of 1.5875, we are still waiting for larger volume and price action. We can observe resistance level around the price of 1.5910 (previous swing low, Fibonacci retracement 38.2%), which is a sign that we may see bearish continuation from that point. According to the 4H timeframe, we can spot very weak demand, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. If the price breaks the level of 1.5745 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1.5625 (Major Fibonacci expansion 100%). Be careful with short-term buying since EUR/NZD is in short-term downtrend and watch for selling opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5897

R2: 1.5913

R3: 1.5939

Support levels:

S1: 1.5845

S2 : 1.5829

S3: 1.5803

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 19, 2014 Trend News

The pair has established recent resistance zone between 1.6765 and 1.6815 during February and March. These levels correspond to the previous tops in a successful Double Top pattern.

The depicted BLUE uptrend line remains intact since it was established in November 2013. However, this time the bulls are failing to achieve a new high above 1.6800-1.6840.

Successive ascending bottoms were established around 1.5850, 1.6250, and 1.6460, and recently another ascending bottom around 1.6735 was established.

As long as the recent bottom around 1.6735 remains defended by the bulls. The market will keep developing bullish pressure to push above 1.6840. Otherwise, the bears will push strongly to the downside to keep moving within the depicted 4H channel especially after no significant bullish pressure was expressed upon the recent bullish breakout on the 4H chart.

Four-Hour closure below 1.6800 will gather enough bearish momentum to push lower. On the other hand, bullish breakout above 1.6840 will expose 1.6900 and 1.6940 respectively.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 19, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 19/05/2014 10:50 CET

The market is trading at the golden trendline support level just below the 61%Fibo retracement. If the count is correct and the market is developing a triangle wave (iv) green then a bounce should happen from the current price levels and the first target for the upward wave is at the level of 1.0890. However, if the intraday support at the level of 1.0851 is broken, then next support is at the level of 1.0834 and that situation might result in creating a bullish divergence on an hourly chart and a chance of an upside bounce is even greater.

Support/Resistance:

1.0813 - Wave (iii) Green Low

1.0834 - Technical Support

1.0851 - Intraday Support

1.0874 - Weekly Pivot

1.0890 - Intraday Resistance

1.0897 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening buy limit positions from the level of grey rectangle support with SL below the level of 1.0833 and TP at the level of 1.0890. Please notice that trading inside of a possible triangle formation is full of false breakouts and whipsaws.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 19/05/2014 10:30 CET

The market is trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 139.43, but the downside seems to be limited due to the decrease in the downside momentum and bullish divergence on the hourly chart and a possible low for the main impulsive wave down, 1 black, at the level of 138.75. Nevertheless, for a deeper upward corrective cycle to start, the level of weekly pivot is the key level to the upside and next resistance at the level of 139.87 is a possible first target for a corrective cycle to finish.

Support/Resistance:

138.75 - Wave 1 Low | Intraday Support |

139.43 - Weekly Pivot

139.87 - Technical Resistance | Key Level |

140.09 - 61%Fibo | WR1 |

140.97 - 141.06 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

The swing traders might want to close their open short orders at current levels and wait for a corrective cycle to complete and then enter again from the level of 139.87 with SL above the level of 140.11 and open TP for now.

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Technical analysis of Gold for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is seen to be bouncing off ahead of support at $1,285.00 levels as seen here. The metal is producing a bullish morning star trading signal indicating that the next move could be higher up. The metal needs to break out of the cone consolidation though to confirm the direction of next big move. Recommendation for now is to remain flat.

2. Support is seen at $1,280.00, followed by $1,270.00, $1,230.00/40.00, $1,210.00 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,330.00, followed by $1,350.00/60.00, $1,388.00 and higher up respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Gold is showing signs off a bullish reversal from current levels but still needs to break above cone consolidation to confirm further direction. The $1,330.00 level needs to be taken out subsequently for bulls to continue further.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6083

R2: 1.5972

R1: 1.5905

Current spot: 1.5873

S1: 1.5859

S2: 1.5830

S3: 1.5804

Technical summary:

We are still looking for strong evidence that the long-term decline from 1.7274 is over and that a new major rally is developing. In the short term we would like to see support at 1.5830 to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.5910, and more importantly, a break above resistance at 1.6179. As long as minor resistance at 1.5910 protects the upside, we could see a slightly deeper correction towards 1.5804, but at no point should we see a break below 1.5730 as that would delay for a move closer to 1.5653 before the bottom is in place.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.5858 and keep your stop at 1.5575 expecting to be able to move it higher soon. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy EUR near 1.5830 or upon a break above 1.5910 with the same stop at 1.5575.

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Technical analysis of Silver for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver is bouncing off ahead of $19.00 levels as seen here. The metal has kept the immediate line of support intact for now. A push above $20.00 and subsequently $20.40 from here would confirm that bulls are back in control and dips could be bought. Recommendation for now is to remain flat.

2. Support is seen at $19.20/19.00 levels, followed by $18.90, $18,75 and lower while resistance is seen at $20.40, followed by $21.70, $22.30 and higher respectively.

3. The structure indicates that Silver needs to break below $19.00 and subsequently below $18.75 levels to confirm bearish reversal. Till then prices would want to push higher.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.58

R2: 140.15

R1: 139.63

Current spot: 138.98

S1: 138.77

S2: 138.17

S3: 137.38

Technical summary:

We are still looking for a short-term correction towards the 139.63 - 139.88 area before the next decline towards 137.01 to end red wave iii. As red wave ii was a deep correction, that corrected most of red wave i we should expect a sideways consolidation as red wave iv.

In the longer term we are still looking for a deeper correction of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69, with the ideal corrective target coming in near 126.00.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 140.95 with a stop at 139.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell in the 139.63 - 139.88 area with the same stop at 139.95.

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#USDX technical analysis for May 19, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has made a pause to its rise and is pulling back below 80 as expected by our previous analysis. The Dollar index is reversing lower towards our target of 79.85 and towards the Ichimoku cloud support I also mentioned last week. This supportive cloud should hold for bullish short-term trend to change to a longer-term bullish reversal.

It is very possible to see this pull back reaching the 38% Fibonacci retracement. This is a potential buy area for anyone who has taken profits from their long positions. It is important for the Dollar index not to break below the Ichimoku cloud and the 61.8% retracement.

The daily chart continues to show that the dominant trend is bearish. Price has hit the daily Ichimoku cloud and has been rejected. Only a strong break and close on a daily basis above this cloud will confirm daily trend change.

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Gold technical analysis for May 19, 2014 Trend News

Gold price holds short-term support levels making now another try to move above $1,300. The trend remains sideways inside the triangle range. So there is no clear trend in force. Gold price as shown in the 4-hour chart below remains above the Ichimoku cloud and this favors another move upwards towards the upper triangle boundaries.

Important resistance levels are at $1,305 and $1,315. Important support levels are $1,287 and $1,270. Currently, we prefer to be neutral. If any level is broken, then we take a position. For example, if $1,287 is broken, then we short with the $1,305 stop, and we add when $1,270 support is broken. If $1,305 is broken, we go long with the $1,287 stop and we add above $1,315. If resistance levels are broken, $1,330-5 is our target. If support fails, the area of $1,240-$1,200 is the target.

The daily chart continues to show that we should remain at least neutral if not bullish as long as price closes above $1,275. Support levels are being held and this should be respected. Sellers are not strong enough to break support. Price is above support at $1,275 and long positions should be preferred. Our longer-term view is bearish but as long as price is above $1,275, we see price reaching $1,330-50.

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