Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 6, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 06/05/2014 07:40 CET

The correction looks finished as the target zone has almost been hit but the current wave progression does not allow to definitely start the impulsive downside development. There is still a possibility of more complex and time-consuming correction in the shape of alternate green labeling on the chart. However, any breakout below the intraday support at the level of 141.27 is more bearish than bullish and it is the first clue the wave 2 red correction is competed.

Support/Resistance:

142.50 - WR1

142.47 - Swing High

141.72 - Technical Resistance

141.94 - Target Level #2

141.79 - Target Level #1

141.74 - Weekly Pivot

141.63 - Intraday Resistance

141.26 - Intraday Support

141.12 - Swing Low

140.96 - 141.06 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop levels from yesterday should still be kept open. The first target is at the level of 140.96.

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Daily analysis of USDX for May 06, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has not had major changes in this chart, as the USDX continues to fall below the 200-day moving average, so the bearish bias remains strong. For now, the nearest target is the support level of 79.19. However, if the USDX makes a bearish rebound at the current levels, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 80.11. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX had a bullish momentum above the bearish trend line that is close to the level of 79.50, but the USDX is trying to make a breakout at the support level of 79.33. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.27. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a bullish rebound at the current levels, it is expected to rise to the level of 79.75. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H1 chart: The USDX remains below the point of control that is near the 200 SMA. However, if the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 79.39, it's expected to fall to the level of 79.13 which would be a strong bearish consolidation. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.39, take profit is at 79.13, and stop loss is at 79.64.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for May 06, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6851, so the bullish bias remains intact, because this pair continues forming a bullish pattern above that level. If the pair manages to make a breakout at the 1.6900 level, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.7000. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: This pair remains above the support level of 1.6841. The bullish bias for now is very weak, as this pair has moved sideways in a low range. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6900, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6925. The MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6860, at which the nearest point of control is located. Now, this pair will try to make a breakout at the resistance level of 1.6900, which is above the 200-day moving average. If successful, it is expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6950. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6900, take profit is at 1.6950, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 6, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 06/05/2014 07:20 CET

The correction has finished sooner than expected but the low of the wave (i) green has not been broken yet. Nevertheless, the current wave progression is bearish and I would expect more downside here to come as long as the golden trendline holds.

Support/Resistance:

1.1052 - Swing High

1.1026 - WR1 | 78%Fibo |

1.1007 - Key Level |61%Fibo|

1.0989 - Intraday Resistance

1.0980 - Weekly Pivot

1.0947 - Intraday Support

1.0935 - 1.0942 - Demand Zone

1.0923 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop levels from yesterday's recommendation has not been hit, but again any breakout to the upside should be sold into. The good level for opening the sell limit orders is at the level of 1.0980 with SL above the level of 1.1010 and TP at the level of 1.0923 with a possible downside extension.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 06, 2014 Trend News

USD/CHF

The pair has been in a down trend from 0.8952 levels. It is facing strong resistance at the descending trendline. We expect this pair will give an upside breakout in the next couple of weeks. On the down side, the pair has strong support at 0.8744 (April 11 low). Once it breaks this, it will fall to 0.87 and 0.8655 levels. On the up side, the pair has strong resistance at 0.8818 (50daily SMA) above this descending trend line. Once the pair crosses the descending trend line, it will zoom up to 0.90 (200daily EMA). The RSI in the daily chart is indicating the buy-on-dips strategy. If the pair breaks 0.8744, don't buy, traders can wait for 0.87 or 0.8650.

Currently the pair is facing resistance at 0.8781 levels on an intraday basis and taking support at 0.8766. The trading is framed between 0.8781-0.8766. On the down side, below 0.8766, it will take the immediate support at 0.8744, real panic will start, once the pair breaks the 0.8744. If the pair breaks the upside band, it will fly up to 0.8787, 0.88 and 0.8823 levels. The trend change level exists at 0.8862 levels. We expect the pair will try to take the support again and it will move to higher levels.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 06, 2014 Trend News

GBP/USD

Today traders will eye British Services PMI. The pair has been trading in an uptrend from 1.6465 levels. In Asia's trading session the pair is trading at 1.6873 levels. As of now, the pair opened its trading day on a bullish note. The RSI in the daily chart indicating a limited upside availability, the pair can extend its bullish wave up to 1.7036. Sell on rise is the best strategy for this pair. It is in the distribution phase on a bullish note, anytime it encounters selling pressure. The Stochastics is giving a positive divergence aiming at 1.6946 and 1.6985 as initial targets. This is valid until the pair holds 1.6853 and trades above 1.6887, currently it is trading below the 1.6887 levels. If the pair breaks the 1.6853 and is unable to cross 1.6887, it will drift up to 1.682 and 1.68 levels are the initial targets.

On the higher side, safe buying will be only above 1.6887 levels. The panic situation will come into existance below 1.6826 levels. If it breaks 1.6826, it will fall all the way towards 1.68 and 1.6745 levels.

Recommendations-

1. Sell below 1.6826, for targets at 1.68, 1.6778, 1.6763 and 1.6745.

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Technical analysis of gold for May 06, 2014 Trend News

GOLD

ISM non-manufacturing PMI- review

Economic activity in the US non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 51st consecutive month, said the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM report. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.9 percent, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the March reading of 53.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 57th consecutive month at a much faster rate. Growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in April, rising at the fastest pace in eight months as new orders jumped and overall activity quickened by the most since early 2008.

Technical analysis-

Forecast- The metal rose to the crucial juncture. Currently the gold, sets its trading range between $1,316-$1,297. Breakout either side will create a more trading room up/down. If it breaks the upside resistance at $1,316, it will fly up to $1,320, $1,322, $1,330.60 and $1,334.60 in the least case. Fresh up move will intact only above the $1,335 levels, until the selling on rise is the best strategy. On the down side, if the metal is unable to cross the $1,316 level, it will take a back seat up to $1,285 levels.

Intraday- key level is $1,316, on the down side, at $1,306.

The metal opened on a bullish note as of now. Yesterday's high was very crucial for this week, bulls need to cross the $1,316 level. No fresh buying until it crosses the 50SMA $1,316. If it crosses, then it will shoot up to $1,320, $1,322 is the immediate targets. Currently the metal is trading above the $1,300 mark, it's a mild bullish view in technical base. If the metal is unable to cross $1,316, it will fall to $1,303, $1,300 and $1,297 on an intraday basis. We recommend to go short for targets at $1,306.60, $1,303, $1,301.80, $1,299, $1,296.5 and $1,294. Selling on rise and add more when the metal breaks the $1,306 level. Currently the narrow range for the metal is between $1,316-$1,306.

Recommendations- cmp $1,311.

Strategic traders-

Sell below $1,306.

Buy above $1,316.

Positional traders-

Sell on rally or at cmp, the metal will melt.

Adopt a strategy and trade safe.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 6, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Unemployment Change, Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m, ECOFIN Meetings. The US will release the economic data too such as the Trade Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3941.

Strong Resistance:1.3932.

Original Resistance: 1.3919.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3906.

Target Inner Area: 1.3873.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3840.

Original Support: 1.3827.

Strong Support: 1.3814.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3805.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3827 and 1.3919. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3814 and by 1.3932 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3805 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3941 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3840 and at 1.3906, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3873.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 6, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports because of Bank Holiday, and the US will release some economic data such as Trade Balance, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.55.

Resistance. 2: 102.45.

Resistance. 1: 102.25.

Support. 1: 102.00.

Support. 2: 101.80.

Support. 3: 101.50.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.50) and resistance 3 (102.55). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group InstaForex Group http://instaforex.com For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief My Profile: http://www.mt5.com/forex_analysis_award/profile/index/arief Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 06, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

The pair has been in an uptrend from 1.3774 levels. It is facing strong resistance at every higher level. Currently the pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3906 levels. It is the key level for bulls and bears. Until the pair breaks the 1.3906 levels, the pair will move to 1.36. Last week's low at 1.3774 is the very crucial for further up move. Until the pair holds 1.3774, there is a remote chance for 1.3950 and 1.40 levels. The weakness persists only below 1.3774.

In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at 1.3876 levels. On the higher side, if the pair crosses 1.3880, it will fly up to 1.3906, 1.3920 and 1.3950 levels. On the higher levels, selling is the best option. On the down side, intraday weakness exists below 1.3864. It will fall to the immediate major support at 1.3850 levels. The major weakness is on the cards below this, fall to 1.3812 and 1.3774 levels. We expect the selling pressure will intensify in coming sessions.

Recommendations-

1. Sell below 1.3864 with targets 1.3850, 1.38 and 1.3774.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for May 6, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: Here, the market is volatile. It is not uncommon for the price to experience some pullbacks, only to go upwards again in tandem with the dominant bias. A good example of this fact happened last Friday. The EUR/USD is bullish and the pair would soon test the resistance line at 1.3900.

USD/CHF: This is a market that goes in opposition to what the EUR/USD is doing. It is going downwards, trading below the resistance level at 0.8800. The next target is at the support level of 0.8750. Should the price succeed in breaching the support level to the downside, another support level at 0.8700 would be targeted.

GBP/USD: The Cable is also bullish, having gone upwards since the beginning of April 2014. The distribution territory at 1.6900 has been tested for several times. It would be tested again and possibly get breached to the upside. There is an immediate accumulation territory at 1.6850.

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has been proving difficult for some time now. Bullish and bearish indications have been short-lived, and therefore, short-term targets could be employed. At the present, the price is trying to bounce upwards after testing the demand level at 102.00 (and failing to close below it). The supply level at 102.50 needs to be breached to the upside before there could be an established northward scenario.

EUR/JPY: In spite of accessional pullbacks, this cross has been able to maintain the bullish bias on it. Bearish pulls have so far been rejected: the price could reach the supply zone at 142.00 and break it to the upside.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 5, 2014 Trend News

The depicted chart shows that the USD/CAD bulls failed to show enough momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20. The bears took an advantage and pushed the pair towards the price zone of 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart).

The USD/CAD pair returned to test the previous support zone around 1.0900 (50% Fibonacci level) which previously provided a considerable support at retesting on February 19.

Temporary daily closure below 1.0920 took place. However, it didn't take long time to get a bullish engulfing daily candlestick as a bullish reaction on the next day pushed the pair again towards 1.1000.

On the other hand, on the 4H chart, the price zone of 1.0995-1.1045 (38.2% Fibonacci of the most recent bearish swing) was expected to provide a valid sell entry and it did.

The previously suggested bearish position is now running in profits. Stop loss should be lowered to 1.1020. The next TP level should be located at 1.0920 then 1.0880.

The price level of 1.1020 remains the nearest resistance level for the pair. Any breakout above 1.1045 will invalidate the bearish tendency for the pair temporarily.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for May 5, 2014 Trend News

On March 24, by breaking down 1.5175, the Double Top pattern could not only achieve its projection target at 1.4820-1.4800, but it also confirmed a bigger Head and Shoulders pattern.

The bears managed to break down 1.4950 corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level last week (the nearest support level). This exposed the price level of 1.4750 (61.8% Fibonacci).

As expected, trading above 1.4750 on a daily basis hindered further bearish progression giving some time for a sideway consolidation for retesting of 1.4945 (50% Fibonacci).

After a few days of indecision around 1.4750, the bulls initiated a bullish spike off 1.4725 and finally they were able to push above the upper limit of the 4H congestion zone.

Two bullish spikes above 1.4950 (50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart) were executed. However, the bulls fail to pursue the bullish breakout leading to its failure.

On the other hand, the lower limit of the depicted triangle located around 1.4850 prevented a further bearish decline, providing a considerable support for the pair for retesting of the price zone of 1.4950-1.5000 again allowing another bullish breakout above 1.5000 to take place.

The 4H chart shows an expanding triangle pattern being established at the current key levels. This is a bearish signal and an indicator for an upcoming bearish pressure to be applied.

Overall, the daily chart suggests bearish tendency especially if the current daily candlestick manages to close below 1.4940.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for May 5, 2014 Trend News

Previously, around the price zone of 1.6780-1.6800, a Double Top pattern scenario was established during February and March. However, the recent lows at 1.6465 and 1.6555 (corresponding to the depicted uptrend line) prevented further bearish decline and provided enough buying pressure to keep pushing higher.

The daily chart shows bullish breakouts expressed above 1.6800-1.6850. The bullish momentum should be apparent now to allow the bullish breakout to pursue towards further targets. Otherwise, failure may occur.

The nearest demand zone to meet the pair is located at 1.6775-1.6820. Bulls should be defending this price zone in order to pursue projection targets of the breakout.

As long as the ascending bottoms established at the uptrend around 1.6675, 1.6775 and 1.6825 remain intact, the market will keep its bullish momentum.

The pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel for a couple of weeks now. Last week, a bearish impulse was initiated off 1.6910 that led again towards the previous consolidation zone at the price level of 1.6820.

The bearish momentum was contained above 1.6820 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). The bulls have been failing to the record a higher high above the recent one at 1.6900. Instead, a minor lower low was established around 1.6875.

Bearish fixation below 1.6850 is necessary to maintain the bearish tendency of the market. Otherwise, bullish destination will be located at 1.6950 aiming for a new high.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for May 5, 2014 Trend News

In March, the failure of the bulls to fix above 1.3880 applied enough bearish pressure in the form of a bearish channel towards the recent demand zone around 1.3700.

At retesting of 1.3700, significant bullish pressure was applied pausing the recent slide off 1.3965 which led to another ascending impulse towards 1.3880.

On April 11, daily candlestick came as a bearish Doji indicating a lack of bullish momentum above 1.6880. This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlesticks aiming to apply bearish pressure on the price level of 1.3800 which is still offering support until today.

At the same time, several bullish attempts (including Tuesday's bullish spike) took place to step above 1.3850-1.3880. However, immediate bearish reaction is applied resulting in successive reversal daily candlesticks pushing again towards 1.3800.

On the other hand, a price level of 1.3800 has been providing bullish support so far. Wednesday and Friday's daily candlesticks are bullish engulfing daily candlesticks that originated off this level.

Since the EUR/USD pair broke below 1.3855, the pair has roughly been moving within a bearish channel until the depicted uptrend line came to meet the pair roughly at 1.3700-1.3680 enhancing this price zone as significant intraday demand. This led to the recent bullish impulse above 1.3810 and 1.3880.

For the bulls, the price zone of 1.3810-1.3785 remains the nearest demand zone which provided a valid buy entry previously. It corresponds to the lower limit of the ongoing consolidation range.

On the other hand, 1.3880 remains the nearest supply level for the bears. It should be watched for price action.

The last bottom established around 1.3810 is still failing to achieve higher high above 1.3880. This is an early sign of lack of bullish momentum. Bearish price action may suggest a possible bearish retracement towards the lower limit of the consolidation range.

A bullish breakout above 1.3880 opens the way for a bullish spike towards 1.3950 to take place shortly after.

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EUR/NZD analysis for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.5985 on volume above the average according to the daily chart. According to the daily chart, we can observe suppply on volume above the average, which is a good sign for furhter bearish movement. As we already wrote in the previous analysis, EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bearish trend, so watch for selling opportunities after retracement. According to the 4H timeframe chart, we can observe supply on volume below the average and the testing of the previous swing low area (1.6000). If the price breaks the level of 1.6000 on higher volume, we may see testing the level of 1.5960 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). We must say that the volume is not so big today, so we are waiting for larger volume and price action.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6070

R2: 1.6093

R3: 1.6131

Support levels:

S1: 1.5994

S2 : 1.5971

S3: 1.5933

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying the EUR/NZD and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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GOLD analysis for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Overview

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price rejected from our support level 1,277.00 and tested the level of 1,314.67 on volume above the average according to the 4H chart. As we already posted in the previous analysis, we got our major support level at the price of 1,277.00 and that level held successfully. As you can see in the graph, our major Fibonacci retracement 38.2% (1,315.55) got tested. If the price breaks the level of 1,315.00 on higher volume, we may see testing the levels of 1,330.00-1,344.00 (Fibonacci ratios) before any larger supply. Any larger supply and reaction from our resistance zone may confrim further bearish phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,302.18

R2: 1,302.88

R3: 1,304.03

Support levels:

S1: 1,299.88

S2: 1,299.18

S3: 1,298.03

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with short-term buying at this stage since price is testing Fibonacci retracement. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Daily analysis of Silver for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As it is seen in today's H4 chart, the metal is stabilizing above the Support level of 19.50 after its failure to break the Support level of 18.90 last week. Currently, we should wait for retesting of the Support level again and closing below it to get the bearish move opportunity. In that case we will get a good opportunity to sell below the Support level till testing the next Support level of 19.20. Therefore, we can consider our first target a few pips above this Support level, but as long as the price is still above the Support level of 19.50, this cancels the bearish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (20.50), R2 (20.20), R1 (19.75), S1 (19.50), S2 (19.20), S3(18.90).

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for May 05, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In today's H4 chart, we can notice that the pair opened this week below the Resistance level of 172.80 which would give the pair a good opportunity to start its bearish move. Actually and as shown, the pair took a slightly downward move and currently is trading above the support level of 172.00 and below the resistance level of 172.80. More bearish signals are still expected as long as the pair is trading below the resistance level, so we can consider our first target few pips above the support level of 171.50, then it is preferred to wait for breaking this support level and closing 4H below to continue the bearish move.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for May 5, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 05/05/2014 12:10 CET

The five wave impulsive decline has been completed and now this pair is in corrective cycle. More downside is being expected when price reaches the key target at the level of 1.1007 that is in a confluence with 61%Fibo level as well. Please notice that the correction might get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:

1.1052 - Swing High

1.1026 - WR1 | 78%Fibo |

1.1007 - Key Level |61%Fibo|

1.1000 - Intraday Resistance

1.0980 - Weekly Pivot

1.0952 - Intraday Support

1.0935 - 1.0942 - Demand Zone

1.0923 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop levels should be open from the level of 1.1007 ONLY if the level of 1.0935 will not be broken first. SL for sell stop orders is above the level of 1.1055 and TP is below the level of 1.0923 with possible downside extension.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for May 5, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 05/05/2014 11:40 CET

The correction went a little bit higher than expected but it did not break above the last swing high. From the recent immediate high of wave (ii) I can label a five wave decline in wave 1 red. Currently, the market is in corrective cycle that might be finished, but it looks like the correction will be a little bit longer in price and time. The potential target levels are two orange rectangles and a failure is expected there to start an impulsive continuation to the downside. The key level to break is supply breakthrough zone.

Support/Resistance:

142.50 - WR1

142.47 - Swing High

142.13 - Technical Resistance

141.94 - Target Level #2

141.79 - Target Level #1

141.74 - Weekly Pivot

141.63 - Intraday Resistance

141.26 - Intraday Support

141.12 - Swing Low

140.96 - 141.06 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop levels should be open from the level of 141.79 and 141.94 ONLY if the level of 141.2 will not be broken first. SL for sell stop orders is above the level of 141.50 and TP is below the level of 140.96 with possible downside extension.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for May 5, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6128

R2: 1.6095

R1: 1.6048

Current spot: 1.6021

S1: 1.5974

S2: 1.5956

S3: 1.5914

Technical summary:

It is "Make it or break it" time. A break below support at 1.5974 indicates that we will see one last decline towards the long-term target at 1.5566. If however, support at 1.5974 protects the downside for a break above resistance at 1.6095, odds will begin to favor the upside for a new test of important resistance at 1.6285 for a continuation higher towards at least 1.6787 and possibly even higher.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 1.6195 and place stop and revers at 1.6100.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for May 5, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 142.38

R2: 141.99

R1: 141.65

Current spot: 141.42

S1: 141.12

S2: 140.63

S3: 140.08

Technical summary:

Important resistance at 142.47 has protected the upside and we are now looking for a break below minor support at 141.12 and more importantly a break below support at 140.99 as a confirmation that the downside pressure is mounting. In the larger picture we are still looking for a much deeper correction towards 126.00 as the ideal long-term target, but the battle between bulls and bears has been almost even and kept us in a narrow range for some time now. However, we do see an Elliott wave pattern that could indicate that the downside pressure finally is gaining the upper hand.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 141.68 with stop placed at 142.50.

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#USDX Technical analysis for May 5, 2014 Trend News

Despite the sharp rise from the lows, the Dollar index could not manage to break above resistance and got rejected once again. The choppy action of the last few days cannot give bulls something to hope. However as long as the index remains above the 79 very important support level, bulls will remain alive. On the other hand, bears have the trend under control. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud in all major time frames.

Any upward bounce lacks any impulsive sign. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Price is again near important support of 79.20. Bulls will need to make a bounce and break above the last high at 79.85. This will be an initial bullish sign. On the other hand, bears need to break below 79.20. Currently a break below 79.20 will be another sell signal with 78.50 as a target. A break above the Ichimoku cloud is a buy signal. Breaking above 79.85 will give us target of 80.15 and at 80.60.

The daily chart continues to move below the daily Ichimoku cloud and below the blue trend line resistance. As long as this happens, the trend will be downward. A trend reversal will be confirmed once this breakout occurs. Until then we prefer to remain neutral as price is above important support at 79.

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Gold technical analysis for May 5, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has held above $1,275 support on Friday and gave early signs of a short-term trend reversal. We mentioned in previous analysis that in order for Gold price to push lower, we needed to see a a daily close below $1,275. If support is not broken, a bounce back above $1,300 should be anticipated. We favored long positions as long as price was above $1,275 on a daily basis and above $1,268 on an intraday basis.

Gold price broke on Friday the short-term downward sloping trend line resistance and that was the first bullish sign we got after a long time. Gold price also moved above the short-term Ichmoku cloud resistance and is now above it. Gold price has also made a higher high and higher low pattern from April 24. We could see a pull back towards $1,300-$1,294 but it is not for sure. I expect this upward momentum to continue and challenge the $1,331 highs.

On a daily basis, Gold price is heading towards the Ichimoku cloud lower boundaries resistance. It is the big test for bulls to show strength and if what we show as wave 2 was really wave 2 or just wave A of the correction. If Gold holds above $1,280-90 support, we should expect a test of the resistance at $1,320-$1,331. Breaking above that level we should anticipate Gold price to reach $1,340-$1,350. Our longer-term view for some time now is to wait for $1,340-50 to sell with long-term target of $1,100-$1,200 and stop at $1,391.

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