Intraday analysis of gold for June 25, 2014 Trend News

GOLD

The consumer confidence moved to the peak level, i.e. a 6-year high. The Conference Board's confidence index rose to 85.2 again in June from a revised 82.2 in the month of May and the new home sales rose in May as well. It's a bullish sign for the US dollar. The latest upbeat signs reflect the momentum of the US economy that will hurt gold.

The metal is trading at $1,317.50 in early Asia's session. In yesterday's session gold again moved to higher levels, but was unable to close at the previous high. It seems bears will have control during the rest of the week. We expect to sell again at current levels of $1,317.50 for targets at $1,310 (200-day Ema) and $1,306 levels. If the metal breaks $1,309.50 (200-day Ema), we can see the lower level targets for $1,306, $1,303 and $1,299 levels. In the daily charts, the momentum oscillators favor the 'selling the rise' strategy.

In the H4 chart, the metal is trading below 35 Dema at $1,321 levels. It has support at $1,316 which if broken, the metal will slide to $1,310, $1,306, $1,303 and $1,301(34 Hr Sma). We can see a further slide only below $1,309.50 levels. If $1,309.50 is not broken, we can see another pull back up to $1,316-$1,317 levels. If gold is not sustaining above $1,325, we can see some profit booking and selling pressure up to $1,299 and $1,286 levels.

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Forecast of USD/JPY for the week June 25, 2014 Trend News

USDJPY-

In the above weekly chart, we can observe the pair took 26-week to give an upside breakout. From the 103.74 levels, the pair went through a healthy correction towards the 93.80 levels and gave an upside breakout at 99.57 levels. Currently we are in the 26th week from the previous peak at 105.54 levels, hope we can get an upside break out next week or it might take a while.

The pair is forming a head-and-shoulder pattern in a large symmetric triangle, an upside breakout can sign for $110 in the short term. The pair has been in a consolidation range from the last 10 sessions, holding above 200-day Sma and Ema. To regain the strength to give an upside break out, we hope it will re-test the 200-day Ema at 101.10 levels or the lower end of the channel at 100.80 levels.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 25, 2014 Trend News

The pair gave an upside breakout from the falling wedge, we can see it in the daily chart. The pair has been in a consolidation phase trying to breach the 200-day Ema on a closing basis. Even though it breached on an intraday basis, but was unable to close above that. It has a rough road ahead at 1.3650 (200-day Sma) 1.3677 and 1.37 (50-day Sma). The RSI in the daily chart favors an up move. We have been recommended to sell only below 1.3460, now we move to 1.35 levels for targets at 1.3470 and 1.3420 levels. Until it holds 1.35, we expect it can move up to 1.3677 and 1.37 levels before the further downfall.

Intraday-

Traders eye today's economic data Gfk German Consumer Climate, Italian retail sales, and US Core duarable goods orders, duarable goods orders, and final GDP q/q. The pair is trading above the major hourly averages. The pair has support at 1.36, 1.3588 and 1.3564 for an intraday perspective. We can see strong momentum only above 1.3635 for an immediate target at 1.3667 and 1.37 levels.

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Short-term forecast and intraday recommendations on USD/CAD for June 25, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD

Short-term view-

The pair has been in a down trend from 1.1279 levels and making lower lows and lower highs for four months. The pair is holding the support at 50-week Sma at 1.0716. This week pair opened on a highly bearish note, higher at 1.0761, we expect further up move will be intact once it breaches this week high. The trading pattern is framed between 1.0711-1.0761 levels (as of now). If the pair breaches 1.0761, it can start its new bullish wave for inital targets at 1.0894 and 1.0960 levels. If the pair breaks the 50-week Sma 1.0711 (1.070 make round figure), it can extend its bearish leg up to 1.068, 1.0652, and 1.0589 (2014 Jan low).

SELL BELOW 1.70 FOR TAREGTS AT 1.068, 1.065, AND 1.0589.

BULLS ARE BACK ON TRACK ABOVE 1.0761.

SUPPORT ZONE IS BETWEEN 1.0711-1.070.

In yesterday's session, the pair held at the previous support, which maybe called as minor double bottom at 1.0716, and closed at the highest point of the day. We expect this is an initial sign for a pullback from the losing streak. The pair has a rough road ahead at 1.0761, above this, 1.0784-1.0790 levels. The bulls will take complete charge if the pair closes above 1.0790 for 1.0826 and 1.09 levels. In the daily chart, the daily momentum oscillators favor to pull back from the current oversold levels.

For an intraday basis, the support levels existed at 1.0732 (35H Dema) and 1.0716, below this, 1.0711-1.070. Resistance is at 1.0754 (21 Hr Sma) and 1.0761, above this, it will spike to 1.0790 and 1.0826 levels.

NOTE- cmp 1.0748.

Fresh buyers, buy above 1.0761, positional traders, hold with sl 1.070.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 25, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as GfK German Consumer Climate and Italian Retail Sales m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Final GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3670.

Strong Resistance:1.3662.

Original Resistance: 1.3649.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3636.

Target Inner Area: 1.3604.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3572.

Original Support: 1.3559.

Strong Support: 1.3546.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3538. DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3559 and 1.3649. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3546 and by 1.3662 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3538 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3670 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3572 and at 1.3636, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3604.

Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 25, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the CSPI y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Final GDP q/q, Durable Goods Orders m/m, Final GDP Price Index q/q, Flash Services PMI, Crude Oil Inventories. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.41.

Resistance. 2: 102.22.

Resistance. 1: 102.02.

Support. 1: 101.77.

Support. 2: 101.57.

Support. 3: 101.37. DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.37) and resistance 3 (102.41). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today. Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 25, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX remains below the 200 SMA, with sideways movements and without a definite trend in this chart. For now, caution is advised when placing buy or sell orders between the 80.62 and 80.11 levels, because there is an area of high volatility. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX remains within the area where the 200 SMA is located, so the USDX continues to find support at the 80.24 level. However, if the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.34, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.60. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The USDX found resistance at the 80.35 level and now the USDX is trying to make a breakout in the support level of 80.15. For now, the bearish outlook remains alive in the USDX, because it is kept below the 200 SMA and the area point of control. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 80.15, take profit is at 79.88, and stop loss is at 80.42.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 25, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: This pair has made a breakout again at the support level of 1.7000. Now, the GBP/USD is trying to consolidate above this level, because the bullish outlook is still alive and this pair continues forming a bullish pattern. However, if the GBP/USD manages to make a successful breakout at the 1.7000 level, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6851. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD is trying to consolidate below the 1.6995 level, so it is very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6920 in the coming hours. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at the level of 1.6900, it's expected to fall to the support level of 1.6841. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD has made a bullish rebound above the 200 SMA, where the area of point of control is located. If the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.7000, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.7050, which would usher in a bullish intraday trend. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.7000, take profit is at 1.7050, and stop loss is at 1.6950.

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Gold analysis for June 24, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,325.63 in volume above the average according to 4H timeframe. As you can see in the graph, the price has broken our Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,305.00, so we may see possible testing the level of 1,334.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily timeframe, we can observe demand on ultra high volume (buying climax) in the background, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. Be careful with buying since we may see potential bearish correction. According to the previous price action, we got a support level at the price of 1,284.00.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,319.36

R2: 1,321.44

R3: 1,324.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,312.64

S2: 1,310.56

S3: 1,307.20

Trading recommendation: Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got buying climax in the background.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 23, 2014 Trend News

Trading recommendations :

• The NZD/USD pair in the short term.


• The NZD/USD pair is in the short term. The price of the NZD/USD pair is going to turn to bearish sentiment from the level of 0.8735. It should be noted that the last top has set at the level of 0.8751. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell below 0.8735/0.8751 with the first target of 0.8700 to test minor support at this price. Also, it will call for downtrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 0.8670. At the same time, the stop loss should be placed above 0.8750 at the price of 0.8800. Also, the stop loss has set in 50 pips. Hence, the risk of 50 pips should make a profit of 75 pips. Equally important, the support will set at the 0.8636 level. Additionally, it should be noticed that the range today will be about 48 pips because we had a low volatility today. As a rule, the market is lower volatile if the last day had a weak volatility.

Intraday technical levels :

• R3: 0.8792


• R2: 0.8772


• R1: 0.8743


• PP: 0.8723


• S1: 0.8694


• S2: 0.8674


• S3: 0.8645

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 23, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The resistance has broken at the level of 0.8870. Also, it should be noted that the level of 0.8870 is representing the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Moreover, the level of 0.8870 is going to become support this week. So, according to previous events, the price of USD/CHF pair will move between the price of 0.8870 and the 0.8950 price. Additionally, the psychological level has set at the 0.9030 price because it is representing a strong resistance. Also, the double top will set at the 0.9035 price on June 23, 2014. Therefore, it will be of the wisdom to buy above the price of 0.8870 with the first target at 0.9066 and 0.9000.
  


• Equally important, the price of the USD/CHF pair is going to try to break the minor resistance to call for the bullish market above 0.9000. Hence, the price will be continued towards the double top (0.9035). On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, thus it will be of the foresight to set your stop loss at the 0.8830 price.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 24, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.5745

R2: 1.5723

R1: 1.5670

Current spot: 1.5628

S1: 1.5579

S2: 1.5566

S1: 1.5538

Technical summary:

This cross also failed to follow through to the downside yesterday and it revived the "old" target area between 1.5723 - 1.5745, before blue wave iv is over and the final decline to 1.5446 should be expected.

Trading recommendation:

We are still nuetral and will await a better entry.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 139.35

R2: 139.07

R1: 138.76

Current spot: 138.74

S1: 138.57

S2: 138.26

S3: 137.92

Technical summary:

We did see a break below support at 138.40 for a decline to 138.26, but the failure to follow through towards the downside and it is back to resistance at 138.76. As long as resistance at 138.76 protects the upside, we could still see an immediate break below support at 138.26 for a new decline below support at 137.72 for a decline to 136.23. However, a break above 138.76 will open up the upside for a move closer to 139.18 before down.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 138.55 with stop placed at 139.55. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 138.26 with stop at 139.55.

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#USDX Technical analysis for June 24, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index remains in downtrend. Prices are making lower lows and lower highs. The index continues to trade below the short-term downward sloping red trend line and below the Ichimoku cloud. This is not good for bulls. Resistance is found at 80.35 and support is at 80.20-80.15.

A break above 80.35 could push the index back towards 80.50-80.60. Breaking below suppot we should expect the selling pressures to push the Dollar index towards 80 and below.

Concluding, trend remains down. I've been bearish since 80.90 saying that I will remain bearish as long as price trades below 81 expecting the index to reach the Ichimoku cloud support in the daily chart. The most probable target is the 50% retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 24/06/2014 09:20 CET

Despite yesterday's breakout below the intraday support level, the downside wave progression has not been continued and the pair rebounded and it is slowly climbing higher. The most important level for intraday bears is the intraday resistance at the level of 138.88. Any breakout higher is bullish and the levels of 139.36 and 139.71 are the first targets for bulls. However please notice, that the corrective wave (b) blue might get more complex and time consuming.

Support/Resistance:

140.07 - Swing High

139.71 - WR2

139.36 - WR1

138.88 - Intraday Resistance

138.51 - Weekly Pivot

138.27 - Intraday Support

138.18 - WS1

137.70 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

Sell stop positions opened yesterday have the SL above the level of 138.88 and any breakout higher should be considered bullish and buy positions should be open with TP at the level of 139.36 and 139.71.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 24, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 24/06/2014 09:10 CET

Not much has changed from yesterday as the market moved very little and did not broke above or below any important level. The outlook is the same as yesterday: we are waiting for one of the levels to be broken to determine further wave progression. Please notice the bullish divergence is building on the oscillator.

Support/Resistance:

1.0687 - WS1

1.0716 - Intraday Support

1.0726 - Technical Support

1.0752 - Intraday Resistance

1.0790 - Weekly Pivot

1.0804 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should open buy stop positions if the level of intraday resistance is broken with SL below the level of 1.0716 and TP at the level of 1.0790. Otherwise any new low will support the bearish scenario.

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