Wednesday 7 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 07, 2012 Trend News

The currency market reacted with intense movements to the reelection of President Obama in the United States.


Speculation that Obama in his new mandate will continue its policy of printing dollars is contradicted by the low acceptance that the agent has in the markets.


As concerns currencies, the euro fell very strong after reaching 1.2875 in the early European session. This could lead to the single currency fall below 1.27 during the course of the week.

The euro may break the key support at 1.2745 up from 23 in June and 38.2% the last bullish movement on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the pound is dropping, as well the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar. The latter, however, still retains a significant upward trend, given the significant increase that was presented on Tuesday morning.


The sterling, with nuances, resembles the euro, and will cost you hold above 1.5930 in the next few hours, if the rate does not change quickly.


The Canadian dollar, meanwhile, could reach parity against the dollar and the Swiss franc, which has just reached its lowest since September 7, has his next target 0.9490.


With oil inventories at 10:30 Eastern, as only data of importance, end markets to digest Obama's victory, a victory that, at least, to be shared with the man who saved the United States from entering into a deep depression: Ben Bernanke.


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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.2761 - For November 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The euro falls very strong, after reaching 1.2870 in the European session. Early in the U.S. session records the euro broke support last week from 1.2763. If the pair closed the week with a candle below this level, it will be the beginning of a bearish sequence that could extend to 1.2550.


At this time the market has a bearish trend; it is likely to continue for the rest of the day. On the other hand, a return to the 1.2763 level may occur. If the pair closes above this level in 4 hour candle, we can buy with targets 1.2881 and 1.2961.


Therefore, we do not recommend selling at this time, as the market is undecided and it may bring a loss. Buy above 1.2763.



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GBP/USD Technical Pattern. For November 07, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

The British pound like other currencies falls against the dollar. The weekly support 1.5961 and 1.5960 fractal are key levels. We have to take it into account; below this level the sequence would be totally bearish for the pair. Therefore, we do not recommend entering any order below these levels. If it closes above 1.5961 on a 4 hour chart you can buy a pair. Do not forget the stop loss.


We noticed that a known pattern is forming, as you can see on the graph. Therefore, if the pair manages to break below the 1.59 level, it completely invalidates it and would enter a very bearish sequence.



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Silver Past Through Resistance at 32.30. Should Hit 32.50 Level Before Pulling Back Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Finally, silver produces the rally that has been expected since several past trading sessions. Looking into the structure now, silver has cleared intermediary resistance placed at 32.30 level but it still needs to get past 32.50/60 to confirm a convincing reversal ahead. Now support is at 30.60/70 levels and 30.20 level respectively. It is recommended to buy on dips towards the 31.50 region. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on long positions. Add on dips. Stop at 30.00. Target Open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Rally Materialized. Morning Star On Daily Charts. Hold Long Positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Finally, the yellow metal rallies and breaks past the dropping line of resistance (as depicted above) and also clears 1,730.00 resistance. A pullback is expected now towards at least 1,700.00 levels before the rally continues. It is recommended to buy on dips, as close to 1,700.00 levels; this trade strategy should go a long way ahead. Next levels of resistance are lined up resistance levels 1,750/60, 1,780, and 1,795 respectively. Look higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to buy positions taken yesterday. Stop at 1,670.00. Target Open.


Good Luck!


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USD/CAD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for November 7, 2012 Trend News


The pair has been trending down when a bullish breakout above the bearish daily channel took place. However, the potential downside move remains valid as long as the pair is trading below 1.0040 and below 1.0000 area, the psychological resistance.

On Friday, further downside movement was anticipated when the USD/CAD pair gave strong bullish reaction towards 0.9950 - 0.9925, a confluence of previous consolidation range acting as support.

The trading range for this week is between the key support around 0.9660 and key resistance around 1.0130.

Yesterda intraday support around 0.9925 was broken down allowing the USD/CAD pair to initiate a strong bearish swing approaching the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel around 0.9850.

Price Zone 0.9850-0.9810 constitutes an Intraday Support zone corresponding to the lower limit of the channel.



Support: 0.9950,0.9925,and 0.9875.

Resistance:0.9990,1.0010, and 1.0040.


Recommendation


Obvious breakdown below 0.9925 supported the bearish scenario in the short-term targeting 0.9860 - 0.9840 initially.

Price Action towards the price zone 0.9850-0.9810 should be watched carefully for a possible valid BUY entry with SL is located below 0.9770.


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GbpChf Holds Resistance between 1.5150-1.5200. Look Lower Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Structurally things remain quite similar since last 3 trading sessions. As it is seen above, the prices are testing the dropping line of resistance and there are indications of a bearish resumption from here on. Resistances are lined up from 1.5230/50, 1.5300 and 1.5400 respectively, while support is placed near 1.4800 and then 1.4700 level for now. If the rate falls below 1.4950, then it will accelerate the downfall towards 1.48, 1,47, and 1.46 respectively. It is recommended to sell rallies as close to 1.5100 level.


Trading Recommendations:


Remain short and sell intraday rallies. Stop at 1.5150/60. Target 1.47, 1.46 minimum.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Rallies Past 103.00 Levels. Follow Through Required. Trend News





Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The structure more or less remains unchanged for now. As it was discussed yesterday, 102.00 level was tested and the prices bounced back sharply, raising past the 103.00 level. Yesterdays' lows should remain intact now, for the bulls to start rally further. Therefore, it is recommended to buy the single currency pair on dips from here on. 102.00/10 levels shall provide intermediary support and any dips should remain well capped above this level. Resistance is lined up at 103.50/70, 104.00/10, and 104.50/60 respectively.


Trading Recommendations:


Stay long for now. Buy on dips. Stop at 101.70. Target 104.75 minimum.


Good Luck!


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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for November 7, 2012 Trend News


USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move like we expected, impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) of the bigger (3) wave (coloured green) was developing. During the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 0.9967 towards 0.9927 level. Therefore, during the New York session this pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price reached a new low at 0.9910 level. At the moment the price is trading around 0.9890 and we are expecting to see bullish mood when development of the corrective 4 wave (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 38.2% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 3 with take profit at 0.9897(38.2% of wave 3). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 0.9800 level as stop loss.


Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9877 (S2) 0.9898 (S1) 0.9911 (PP) 0.9933 (R1) 0.9954 (R2) 0.9967 (R3) 0.9989



Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9831 with stop loss 0.9800 and take profit at 0.9897 are recommended.


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GbpChf Still Holding Resistance... Look Lower Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Structurally there is no change since last three trading sessions. Resistance begins from 1.5150/1.5200 levels and extends till 1.5400. Intermediary support is at 1.4950, followed by 1.4800 level. It is recommended to remain short and sell further intraday rallies as close to 1.5100. Coming below 1.4950 shall accelerate further move downside towards 1.4800 and lower. Looking lower for now.


Trading Recommendations:


Remain short. Stop at 1.5150. Target 1.4600 and 1.4500.


Good Luck!


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