EUR/NZD analysis for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of 1.7513. In the daily time frame, we can observe a supply bar in an average volume. The intraday trend is downward. According to the H1 chart, strong support zone around the price of 1.7620 got broken.Our high volume area at the price of 1.7620 held successfully as resistance after sellers did a breakout, which is a sign for downward market. Be careful when buying at this stage since we may expect more downward movement. We have support at the price of 1.7500-1.7350.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.7850

R2: 1.7930

R3: 1.8048

Support levels:

S1: 1.7610

S2: 1.7535

S3: 1.7415

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Gold analysis for September 25 , 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,140.63. The intraday trend is neutral. In the daily time frame, we can observe a demand bar in a high volume. In the M15 time frame, we can observe a successful test at the supply level of $1,140.05. The high volume area is also around the price of 1.140.00, so we have strong support over there. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on gold.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points :

Resistance levels

R1: 1,156.00

R2: 1,161.70

R3: 1,170.45

Support levels:

S1: 1,138.85

S2: 1,133.40

S3: 1,124.67

Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling gold at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Several months ago, when bulls pushed the price above the 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs), resulting in lower highs (within the depicted consolidation zone) enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened the way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend).

Bullish support was found around these levels. Higher lows were established. Bullish pressure was applied to the resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

A bullish breakout above the zone of 1.2770-1.2800 has been executed.

The long-term bullish target was projected towards the level of 1.3270 (100% Fibonacci Expansion) where bearish pressure should be expected. Bulls are revisiting this level this week.

Bearish corrective movement towards the level of 1.2750 (breakout level) should be expected as long as USD/CAD bears keep trading below the Fibonacci Expansion zone around 1.3300 - 1.3330.

Moreover, bearish persistence below 1.3270 (Fibo Expansion 100% level) is needed to expose the next support level around 1.3070, 1.2910 and 1.2750 where long-term buy entries can be considered.

Trading recommendations:

A counter-trend sell entry can be offered at the current price levels around 1.3350 (Fibonacci Expansion 100% and 141% levels). S/L should be placed above the level of 1.3450. T/P levels should be placed at 1.3200 and 1.3050.

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards the recent breakout zone (1.2800-1.2750) for a valid buy entry as the breakout level constitutes a strong support level.

S/L should be located below the level of 1.2700. T/P levels should be located at 1.2850 and 1.2900.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Few months ago, the market was pushed above the weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900, which has been providing evident resistance for the GBP/USD pair.

The previous weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hindered further bearish decline and enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.5670 (previous weekly high) and 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

Recent weekly candlesticks came as bearish engulfing ones, closing below the level of 1.5450 (Head and Shoulders neckline).

It supports the bearish side of the market in the long term. For the reversal pattern, an approximate projection target should be located at the level of 1.5050.

In the short term, the nearest demand level to meet the GBP/USD pair is located around 1.5170 (recent weekly bottom and the origin of a bullish engulfing WEEKLY candlestick).

Weekly persistence below the price zone of 1.5170-1.5200 is mandatory to allow further bearish decline to occur.

Previously, the zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as significant supply. It offered a valid sell entry few months ago. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

The level of 1.5550, which corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the previous prominent top, was temporarily broken enabling further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was established.

Prominent supply/resistance around the level of 1.5770 (prominent 61.8% Fibonacci level) where the right shoulder of the depicted bearish reversal pattern is observed.

That is why, a valid sell entry was suggested for retesting at 1.5770 three weeks ago. All of its targets were successfilly achieved.

Moreover, the previous bearish movement found its way towards the level of 1.5200 (prominent demand level), which prevented further bearish decline.

Instead of it, evident bullish rejection took place (bullish engulfing daily candlesticks) leading to the recent bullish pullback towards 1.5560, which provided the current extensive bearish rejection.

Price action should be watched around the price level of 1.5170 as it corresponds to a previous weekly double bottom. A valid BUY entry can be offered if enough bullish rejection is expressed around these levels.

Trade Recommendation:

A valid sell entry was suggested around the zone of 1.5550-1.5580 (recent resistance zone). It is already running in profits.

T/P levels to be projected towards 1.5200 (achieved), and 1.5050 (yet to come) while S/L should be lowered to 1.5460 to offset the risk.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The pair moved lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.

EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established in January 1997). Bullish recovery was observed shortly after.

April's candlestick came as bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May, June, July, and August) reflected the recent bearish rejection which exists around the price level of 1.1450.

In the long term, a projection target is still seen at 0.9450 if a bearish breakdown of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 occurs soon.

On the other hand, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 can take place only if the monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached.

It can be achieved if the current monthly candlestick closes above a weekly high of 1.1465 by the end of the current month (low probability).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0830 and 1.1020. These levels corresponded to the current daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Continuous bullish pressure has been applied until significant bearish resistance was expressed around the price levels of 1.1480 and 1.1700.

The market looked overbought as bulls were pushing further beyond the price level of 1.1500 (daily supply level).

Hence, bearish movement took place towards the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level), which provided evident bullish rejection (note the recent daily candlesticks).

As anticipated, the intraday supply zone of 1.1300-1.1330 provided significant bearish rejection. An intraday sell entry was suggested with T/P levels placed at 1.1150 (achieved) and 1.1050 (yet to come).

Daily persistence below the level of 1.1150 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is mandatory to expose the next demand level around 1.0980 where the daily uptrend comes to meet the pair.

Conservative traders should wait for more bearish pullback towards the price zone of 1.0980-1.1000 (the depicted uptrend line) for a valid buy entry.

S/L should be placed below 1.0950. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1080 and 1.1160.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. Overnight, US stocks continued sliding on lingering worries over slowing global growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 16,201, paring a loss of up to 1.6% earlier in the session. The S&P 500 declined 0.3% to 1,932, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4% to 4,734. Nymex crude oil gained 1.0% to $44.91 a barrel, while gold surged 2.1% to $1,154 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.125% from 2.144% in the previous session. Meanwhile, the US dollar has been boosted by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's statement that she is among most FOMC members who anticipate an initial interest rate increase later this year. EUR/USD dropped to the current level of 1.1173 from overnight's high of 1.1296, and USD/JPY posted a powerful rebound to the current 120.26 from overnight's low of 119.20. The pair is holding its gains of a powerful rebound from overnight's low of 119.20. It is standing above the 20-period intraday moving average (MA), which has crossed the 50-period one above. And the intraday relative strength indicator (RSI) is well directed above the neutrality level of 50 calling for a new upleg. The first upside target is set at 121.35 (the high of September 23) and the second one at 121.55 (the high of September 17). Only a break below the key support at 120.35 would make the intraday outlook bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 121.35 and the second target at 121.55. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.80 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119.30. The pivot point is at 120.35.

Resistance levels: 121.35 121.55 122

Support levels: 119.80 119.30 118.90

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is challenging 0.9825. The pair is very close to its major resistance at 0.9810 (the high of September 24), and is more likely to challenge it in sight. The immediate trend is up, and the momentum is strong as the RSI indicator is heading upwards above its 50 area. In these perspectives, as long as the nearest support at 0.9730 is not broken, a new bounce is expected in the coming trading hours towards 0.9860.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9825 and the second target at 0.9860. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9675 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9640. The pivot point is at 0.9730.

Resistance levels: 0.9825 0.9860 0.9910

Support levels: 0.9675 0.9640 0.9600

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade with bullish bias. The pair is posting a strong technical rebound after hitting its key support level at 0.6290. Both intraday 20- and 50-period MAs are turning up, and it should confirm a positive outlook. Furthermore, the momentum indicator RSI is bouncing off its neutrality level at 50. In this case, as long as 0.6260 is not broken, expect a new up move to 0.6380 and 0.6400.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6380 and the second target at 0.64. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6260 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6235. The pivot point is at 0.6290.

Resistance levels: 0.6380 0.64 00 0.6475

Support levels: 0.6260 0.6235 0.6200

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias above 183. The pair keeps trading above the key support at 183. It has entered a consolidation after challenging the first upside target at 184.75 and is around the 50-period intraday MA. As long as 183 holds as the key support, the bullish bias should be maintained. However, a break below 183 would make the intraday outlook bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 184.75 and the second target at 185.30. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 182.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 182. The pivot point is at 183.

Resistance levels: 184.75 185.30 186.15

Support levels: 182.60 182.00 181.35

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair will trade between the level of 1.5318 and 1.5165. The resistance is set at the level of 1.5318. Consequently, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.5318 because the level of 1.5318 is going to act as strong resistance. Therefore, it will be a good decision to sell below this level today with the first target of 1.5202 in order to test the weekly pivot point on the H1 chart. Equally important, if the trend succeeds to close below 1.5202, the market will continue with the downtrend below the daily pivot point towards the level of 1.5164 with a view to test the double bottom on the H4 chart. However, the stop loss should be placed above 1.5318 at the price of 1.5340.

Observations:

• So, you might notice that the Fibonacci in a range-trade looks like the trend is trapped and going up and down, if you sell or buy in the long term, you will surely lose your profit. It is valid only in the short term and will tend to trade very little during strong trend moves. It is also one of the most volatility sensitive trading systems.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The USD/CHF pair has set its strong resistance at the level of 0.9901 and support stands at 0.9763 today. Equally important, the price has been still moving around the key level at 0.9824 since yesterday. Moreover, the USD/CHF pair is still below 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels since August 4, 2015. The RSI calls for a downtrend and the double top was already placed at the point of 0.9901. As a result, the price has already formed the strong resistance at this spot of 0.9901 and it is now approaching it in order to test it (from 0.9824). Therefore, the USD/CHF pair will get rather convincing downside momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective for indicating a bearish opportunity below the 0.9901 level. It will be a good decision to sell below 0.9901 with the first target of 0.9794 and it will call for a downtrend to continue with bearish movements towards 0.9763 (this level is coinciding with the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels).

Intraday technical Levels:

Pair: USD/CHF

• R2: 0.9956
• R1: 0.9901
• PP: 0.9824
• S1: 0.9763
• S2: 0.9708

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Global macro overview for 25/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 25/09/2015:

During yesterday's speech at the University of Massachusetts, Fed Chair Janet Yellen reaffirmed the central bank's intention to tighten the monetary policy by raising the short-term interest rates this year. As the recent documents from the Fed meeting last week showed that 13 out of 17 Committee members expect rates hike this year, the question remains if the Fed will decide to raise the rates in December or even October? So far the Fed decision was accompanied by the press conference and the next Fed meeting with press conference is scheduled for December, not October. This is why, any interest rate hike in October would be a huge surprise for the markets and a game-changing move for market participants.

The EUR/USD daily technical picture show a failed attempt to break out the 1.1297 resistance and a decline towards the technical support at the level of 1.1086. Any breakout lower will directly expose the level of 1.1017 for a test.

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Global macro overview for 25/09/2015 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 25/09/2015:

The third estimate of Q2 GDP will be the final reading for the US GDP. The market expects the estimate to confirm the previous reading at the level of 3.7% q/q ( 2.7% y/y). This figure or anything better than 3.7% will be strongly support the US dollar as the dovish statement from the Fed last week got the US dollar weaken slightly. Moreover, the finial reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for September is also due to release today at 2pm GMT and any better number than 87.2 will be likely to support the US dollar again.

The technical picture of the US dollar index looks now more bullish than before. The market is trying to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 96.63 and if it does, then the golden trendline resistance will be put to the test as well.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 25/09/2015 10:00 CET

One more scenario has been added to the current wave development. According to this alternative count, the whole decline from the level of 137.43 is an uncompleted five wave structure. The recent choppy and overlapping up move has been labeled as wave alt. iv, and now another leg down is expected to complete the cycle.

Support/Resistnace:

134.98 - Technical Resistance

134.35 - WS1

133.74 - Intraday Support

133.46 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders at current levels with SL above the level of 134.97 and TP at the level of 133.75.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 25/09/2015 09:50 CET

As anticipated yesterday, the new high has been made above the 1.3354 level. The current local high at the level of 1.3415 is acting as an intraday resistance. From the Elliott wave point of view, the whole overlapping upward structure has been labeled as a part of a bigger corrective cycle labeled as WXY brown cycle. The target for wave Y brown is at the level of 1.3233 (min. target level). Any breakout higher above the level of 1.3415 invalidates the bearish short-term outlook and puts the next important resistance at the level of 1.3451 in view.

Support/Resistnace:

1.3451 - WR2

1.3415 - Intraday Resistnace

1.3356 - WR1

1.3290 - Intraday Support

1.3233 - Wave Y Brown Target

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 1.3415 and TP at the level of 1.3233.

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USDX technical analysis for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index as we initially expected pulled back towards 95.25 where the cloud support was found and has bounced strongly since then. Price is now testing the previous highs resistance at 96.60 again. A rejection here could bring price back to 95, but overall bulls remain in control.

Green line - resistance (broken)

Red line - horizontal resistance of previous highs

The Dollar index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud. The trend is bullish and a breakout above 96.60 will be a very bullish sign that could bring the index towards 98. A rejection here will bring the index back at 95.

Red line - resistance

Green line - support

The weekly chart shows that there is enough strength to push price towards the downward sloping red trend line resistance where the bullish flag pattern is going to be tested. Price is supported by the weekly Ichimoku cloud and all bulls need is a weekly break above the red trend line resistance in order to confirm the start of the next upward leg to new highs.

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Gold technical analysis for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has reached my short-term target of $1,150 and is showing signs of rejection and reversal. This is very important support. In order to be broken, we might need a pullback first. However the pullback should stay above $1,130.

Green lines - triangle

Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the Ichimoku indicators (tenkan- kijun-sen). However price got rejected at the upper triangle boundary and we are in danger of seeing a pullback towards the cloud support. This will happen if we break short-term support at $1,140.

On the other hand bulls could need this pullback before their next attempt to break the weekly resistance as shown above at $1,150. The kijun-sen is found in that area, so we should be patient to see where this week's candle closes. A close between the tenkan- and kijun-sen will be a neutral sign.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

EUR/USD: On Thursday, it was proven that the rally attempt we saw on this pair was merely a means to sell higher in the context of a downtrend. The price made some bullish efforts, but it could not reach the resistance line at 1.1300. There has been another bearish run, which has emphasized the extant bearish outlook.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair is still in a bullish mode as it was made evident by the price action of yesterday. The price made some bullish attempts, and now the pair is close to the resistance level at 0.9800, which is a formidable barrier to bulls' interests. There is a need for the resistance level to be breached to the upside, so that the bullish journey can continue.

GBP/USD: The Cable has now dropped by nearly 350 pips this week, moving close to the accumulation territory at 1.5200. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart: the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. It is expected that the bearish trend would continue.

USD/JPY: This is a strong equilibrium market in which there is no clear uptrend or downtrend. It is better to stay away from the market until there is a reliable breakout from the strong equilibrium phase; and this would require at least, a movement of 200 pips upwards or downwards.

EUR/JPY: Just like the EUR/USD pair, this cross is also on a bear market in spite of the recent rally in the context of a downtrend. Only a movement above the supply level at 136.00 could render the bearish outlook invalid. But right now, the rally attempt has eased, which could lead to further bearish run.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Private Loans y/y and M3 Money Supply y/y. The US will also release the economic reports such as the Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Flash Services PMI, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1234.

Strong Resistance:1.1228.

Original Resistance: 1.1217.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1206.

Target Inner Area: 1.1180.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1154.

Original Support: 1.1143.

Strong Support: 1.1132.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1126.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for September 25, 2015 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will release the SPPI y/y, National Core CPI y/y, and Tokyo Core CPI y/y. Besides, the US will publish a series of economic reports such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Flash Services PMI, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 120.86.

Resistance. 2: 120.62.

Resistance. 1: 120.39.

Support. 1: 120.09.

Support. 2: 119.85.

Support. 3: 119.62.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 25 - 2015 Market Analysis Review

Technical summary:

We are still locked within the larger range between 1.7466 - 1.8000. We expect a final decline closer to the 1.7466 low before then next impulsive rally to above 1.8000 for a continuation higher to 1.8683.

In the short term, a break below support at 1.7583 will confirm the move closer to strong support near 1.7466 from where the next impulsive rally should take off.

Trading recommendation:

We have place a EUR buy-order at 1.7475 and one upon a break above 1.7775. One order done cancels the other.

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