Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish bias. Liquidity was thin in Asia today as financial markets in Japan were shut for holiday. The USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.18 versus 80.01 early Thursday) after the Federal Reserve officials shifted forward their forecast for higher rates and Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity rose stronger than expected to plus 9.0 in March (versus 4.3 forecast) from minus 6.3 in February, while the U.S Conference Board leading index rose more-than-expected 0.5% (versus +0.3% forecast) in February. The USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields, reduced safe-haven appeal of yen and yen-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 3.97% to 14.52; S&P rose 0.6% overnight) on upbeat U.S. data and calmer investor nerves post-FOMC, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and sell-yen orders from Japan importers. But the USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and positions' adjustment before the weekend.

Technical сomment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, the MACD is staging bullish crossover against its exponential moving average and rate-of-change momentum indicator is advancing in positive territory.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.20. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 100.64. The pivot point is at 101.75.

Resistance levels:

102.85

103.15

103.45

Support levels:

101.20

100.65

100.35

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting two-week high at 0.8869 on Thursday. The USD/CHF has been supported by the Swiss National Bank on Thursday repeating its pledge to intervene in currency markets to prevent the Swiss franc from strengthening beyond 1.20 per euro, and keeping its target range for the three-month Swiss franc London interbank offered rate unchanged at 0% to 0.25%. However, it lowered its inflation forecasts - it now expects prices to be unchanged this year, compared with its previous projection of a 0.2% gain, and to pick up to 0.4% in 2015, compared with 0.6% previously. The USD/CHF is also underpinned by positive dollar sentiment. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions' adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics is in bullish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8890 and the second target at 0.8915. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8770. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.8755. The pivot point is at 0.8795.

Resistance levels:

0.8890

0.8915

0.8945

Support levels:

0.8770

0.8755

0.8715

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The GBP/JPY is expected to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the weak EUR/USD undertone. But the EUR/JPY downside is limited by the improved risk appetite and loose BOJ's monetary policy and positions' adjustment before the weekend. Daily chart is mixed as the MACD is negative biased and stochastics is turned bearish.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 168. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 167.70. The pivot point stands at 169.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 168 and the second target at 167.70.

Resistance levels:

169.70

170

170.50

Support levels:

168

167.70

167.10

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:
The NZD/USD is expected to consolidate after hitting six-day low at 0.8499 on Thursday. It is undermined by the positive dollar sentiment and Kiwi sales on the rebounding AUD/NZD cross. But the NZD/USD downside is limited by the Kiwi demand on the NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion, hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance and positions' adjustment before weekend.The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish and is in the overbought zone; the bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit on Thursday.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8480. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8430. The pivot point stands at 0.8570. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8595 and the second target at 0.8640.

Resistance levels:

0.8595

0.8640

0.8675

Support levels:
0.8480

0.8430

0.84

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Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave
After a couple of days in the strong upward trend, the USD/CAD pair is showing some weakness at the moment, corrective wave [ii] (coloured black) of the bigger wave A (coloured blue) has been developing. In the chart of the pair above, we can see that short cycle from 1.10221 level is over at the 1.1277 level, we are calling this impulsive wave [i], and should see price finding support around 1.1145 - 1.1120 area next - 50 and 61.8% of the wave [i] length. While price remain above the 1.1022 level, the end of the red (X) wave, we are going to look for a buying opportunity at the next drop. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [iii] should extend 161.8% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 1.1527 (161.8% of wave [i]).

Alternate Count: We are going with the idea that we have already ended the A wave at the 1.1277 level, and that we are missing just one more push higher to complete the bigger (Z) wave (coloured red) . Support area in this case stay the same, as we are looking at Primary view, difference will be a next upwards targets, where we are looking at 1.1402 level.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.1178, (S2) 1.1206, (S1) 1.1222, (PP) 1.1250, (R1) 1.1266, (R2) 1.1294, (R3) 1.1310.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin upward movements. That is why long positions at the level of 1.1145 with stop loss at 1.1022 and take profit at 1.1527 are recommended.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis, the AUD/USD pair has been trading upwards, just like we expected, impulsive wave i of the bigger wave (iii) has been developing. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that the FLAT pattern in the (ii) wave has ended at the 0.8993 level, and from there we are tracking the (iii) wave. In the short term, we can expect to see a pullback towards the 0.9043-0.9031 area, 50-61.8% of the wave, but while price stay above the 0.8993 level, our focus remains only on a buying opportunity in the (iii) wave. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave (iii) should extend 161.8% of wave (i), we can define the potential targets with measuring wave (i) with take profit at 0.9280 (161.8% of wave (i)). The RSI indicator on the 1-hour chart, points for the bullish divergence, this also support our long idea.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.8949, (S2) 0.8971, (S1) 0.9006, (PP) 0.9028, (R1) 0.9063, (R2) 0.9085, (R3) 0.9120.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movements. That is why long positions at the level of 0.9040 with stop loss at 0.8993 and take profit at 0.9280 are recommended.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading sideways, around the price of 1.6150, we are still waiting for larger movement. Our previous analysis is still active. According to the daily chart we can observe weak supply on high volume, which is a sign that we may see further bullish movements. The EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish phase. I have placed Fibonacci levels to find upper stations and i got Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6234 and Fibonacci Retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6325. I have also placed Fibonacci expansion levels and I got FE 61.8% at the price of 1.6170, FE 100% at the price of 1.6225 and FE 161.8% at the price of 1.6315. To confrim potential bullish phase, we need to see strong demand on high volume on the market. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6085 on high volume, we may see testing of the level 1.6020 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) before any larger upward movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6207

R2: 1.6234

R3: 1.6276

Support levels:

S1: 1.6123

S2 : 1.6096

S3: 1.6054

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair since we got selling climax and weak supply according, to the daily chart.

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GOLD analysis for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, Gold has been trading upwards, the price tested the level of 1,342.21 on average volume. According to the daily chart, we can observe weak supply on the high volume, which is sign that we may see smaller bullish correction before the potential bearish movement. I have placed Fibonacci retracement levels to find potential end of the bullish correction and i got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,347.50 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,364.00. Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase and I've placed Fibonacci Retracement to find next down station. I got major Fibonacci Retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,312.00. Be careful with buying and watch for selling opportunities after retracements.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,334.51

R2: 1,337.79

R3: 1,343.10

Support levels:

S1: 1,323.89

S2: 1,320.61

S3: 1,315.30

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying at this stage since Gold is in progress of bearish corrective phase. Watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY pair has bounced back after testing lows at 140.50. It looks like the pair is preparing to rally further towards 144.00 and 145.50, with the recent lows holding well. Recommendations are to hold long positions taken earlier, risk remains at 140.00.

2. Immediate support is at 140.50 (intermediary), followed by 138.80/139.00/136.50, 134.00, 132.00 and lower, while resistance is at 144.00 (intermediary), followed by 145.50 respectively.

3. The structure reveals that EUR/JPY bulls are wanting to remain in control for now. A push through 142.00 shall confirm the same.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, place stop at 140.00, target is open.

Good luck!

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Reversal Double-Top pattern was expressed at 1.6800 which led to the current bearish swing down to 1.6470.

Breakdown of 1.6530 (50% Fibonacci level) which took place Yesterday exposed 1.6470 (61.8% Fibonacci) immediately.

Mild bullish pull-back is taking place at 1.6470. Price level 1.6535 remains the nearest Intraday resistance for the pair.

On the other hand, price level of 1.6575 is a KEY-RESISTANCE for the pair. Any further visits will probably offer a valid SELL entry with stop-loss located just above 1.6600.

On the long-term prospective, projection target of the bearish pattern located 1.6380 remains in focus as long as fixation below 50% Fibonacci level remains in place.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair is moving exactly as per expectations at the moment. The pair has reversed from 1.4650 levels for now. This region is the support turned resistance as seen here. It is recommended to remain short for now, risk remains at 1.4700.

2. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4700/1.4850(intermediary), followed by 1.4950/60 and 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4350, 1.4200, and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that1.4650 should hold for now. The bears are poised to push prices lower towards 1.4350 atleast.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, move stop to 1.4690, target is at 1.4350.

Good luck!

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Since February 4, the EUR/AUD pair has been moving sideways with a slightly bullish tendency. This movement was maintained within the depicted bullish channel.

On March 12, the bulls failed to establish an ascending top. Instead, a double-top reversal pattern was established at 1.5500. The neckline is located at 1.5200-1.5170 ( being tested today ).

Breakdown of this neckline will confirm the pattern clearing the way towards the projection target which is roughly located at 1.4950.

Breakdown of price zone 1.5200-1.5170 means confirmation of the breakdown of the lower limit of the bullish channel as well. That's why, a quick bearish swing is expected to follow through.

On the other hand, failure of the bears to fixate below 1.5170 will bring the pair back within the current congestion zone between 1.5200 and 1.5480 giving more time for sideway movements.

Today, the bears need to push below 1.5160 ( recent low established on March 6 ) in order to gather enough momentum for a strong bearish swing towards 1.5100 then 1.4950.

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 21, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver bounces off the $20.13 lows created yesterday. As seen here,it is the 0,618 fibonacci retracement level of the rally between $19.00 and $22.30. Recommendations are to initiate atleast 50% at current market ($20.50). Risk remains below $19.25 for now.

2. Immediate support is at $20.00, followed by $19.00, $18.70 and lower, while resistance is at $22.30 (intermediary), followed by $23.00, $23.50 and higher respectively.

3. The structure reveals that a higher low might have formed at $20.13 yesterday. If this holds true, Silver should see higher highs from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate atleast 50% long positions now, set stop at $19.25, target is open.

Good luck!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Daily Fixation below 1.3850 gathered significant bearish pressure enough to breakdown the lower limit of the daily bullish channel.

Today, there is a minor reversal expressed at 1.3750 of the recent slide from 1.3965.

Four-Hour candlestick fixation above 1.3790 signals a temporary bottom that will target at 1.3850.

Price Level 1.3850-1.3870 remains a significant supply zone (neckline of the 4H reversal pattern). It will probably provide a valid SELL entry at retesting. Stop Loss should be located above 1.3900.

On the other hand, failure to fixate above 1.3790 will expose the recent low 1.3748. A slide below which opens the way towards lower lows located at 1.3700 and 1.3660.

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 21, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold is seen to be bouncing off right from the trend line support from around $1,320.00 levels. Yesterdays candle was a doji, followed by a bullish candle today (not yet complete). Since the uptrend line is being followed, prices may bounce off to fresh highs or atleast $1,370.00 from current levels. An aggressive trade setup would be to initiate 50% long positions, risk remains at $1,315.00. A conservative approach would be to remain flat for now.

2. Immediate resistance is seen at $1,395.00, followed by $1,410.00, while supports are spread through $1,320.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,310.00, $1,280.00, $1,250/60 and lower respectively.

3. The structure reveals that bulls may push prices atleast towards $1,370.00/80.00 levels, if not higher from here on. A break of the rising trend line is required to confirm further downside towards $1,250.00.

Trading recommendations:

1. Aggressive setup is to initiate 50% long positions, stop is at $1,315.00, target is open.

2. Conservative setup is to remain flat, look to buy lower.

Good luck!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

As depicted on the chart, the nearest demand level comes to meet the pair around 1.6475 (61.8% Fibonacci).

The Double-Top pattern scenario is being executed with the neckline located around price zone of 1.6540-1.6580.

Daily fixation below this neckline will enable the pair to reach 1.6350 as a projection target.

The recent achieved low at 1.6475 (61.8% Fibonacci) prevented further decline today. However, there is still no signals of bullish reversal. Four-hour fixation above 1.6520 is needed to signal an established bottom thus exposing 1.6570-1.6580 (significant Supply zone) to be tested shortly after.

Now the price zone of 1.6570-1.6600 will probably offer a valid SELL entry at retesting. Stop Loss should be daily closure above 1.6610.

On the other hand, slide below 1.6475 will expose 1.6400 immediately. Price level of 1.6400 corresponds to the lower limit of the depicted 4H bearish channel.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6208

R2: 1.6160

R1: 1.6120

Current spot: 1.6107

S1: 1.6086

S2: 1.6053

S3: 1.6000

Technical summary:

The b wave of wave iv should terminate soon and we should look for an impulsive rally higher towards 1.6450. This rally will end wave iv of the ending diagonal, which is currently unfolding. Once wave iv is in place near 1.6450, we should see one final decline closer to the 1.6000-1.6020. In the short term a break above minor resistance at 1.6120 and more importantly a break above 1.6160 will confirm that the impulsive rally towards 1.6450 is developing.

Trading recommendation:

Buy EUR here at 1.6107 with a stop at 1.6050 and place take profit at 1.6425.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 141.92

R2: 141.68

R1: 141.30

Current spot: 141.12

S1: 140.89

S2: 140.65

S3: 140.43

Technical summary:

With a slight new low at 140.43 red wave v. As we now have a minor five wave decline from 143.79 we should expect a minor correction higher towards the 142.11-142.50 area, before the next downside pressure takes us lower towards at least 136.45 and maybe even lower. In the longer term, we are still looking for a much bigger correction from the 145.69 high towards the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69 at 126.00.

Trading recommendation:

We missed our take-profit on the short EUR position from 141.90 slightly. Take profit here at 141.12 for a nice little profit. Sell EUR again at 142.40 with a stop at 143.85.

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#USDX Technical analysis for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Soon, we will know if the breakout of the Dollar index above 80 towards 80.50 was real or a false breakout. The Dollar index is pulling back down towards its break out area and this backtest is very important. Previous resistance area at 80-79.95 is now support. If this support holds, we should expect another upward move in the Dollar index that will challenge the resistance at 81 and 81.40.

Short-term trend is up. Prices have broken above the Ichimoku cloud and out of the falling wedge. We could see a pull back towards the 79.95 area or even towards 79.65. However at this stage I expect corrections to be shallow if the index is to move higher.

On a daily basis the Dollar index has important resistance at 80.70 and important support at 79.95. Short-term trend has changed to up, but longer-term trend is still down. We are mildly bullish as long as price trades above 79.40. Breaking above 81 will be very bullish for the Dollar index and this is where we look to add to longs.

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Gold technical analysis for March 21, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has found support above $1,318 and is now trading near $1,338. Gold price is ready for a bounce higher towards $1,350-$1,360. This upward move is corrective, and we will look to go short with $1,390 as a stop and the $1,300-$1,270 target area.

Short-term trend has changed to upward. I expect Gold price to move towards the Ichimoku cloud and between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. So I will wait for a move towards $1,50-60 to think of selling short expecting another leg down. We follow this strategy to go short in a coming bounce because there is high probability the entire break out was a false one.

The break out from $1,340-50 to $1,390 could very well be a false break out and that is why we look to go short if price bounces towards $1,350-60 with $1,390 stop. We expect Gold price to move higher and then resume downtrend towards the daily Ichimoku cloud at $1,270-90.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 21, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: At last, the EUR/USD was able to trade below the resistance line at 1.3800, leading to the awaited Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The support line at 1.3750 has been tested and could be re-tested again. Should it be broken to the downside, the price would go to the next support line at 1.3700.

USD/CHF: Since the current ‘buy’ signal on this pair has been established, the price has been going upwards in a noteworthy manner. Although there is a pause in the current buying pressure, it is possible that the price would not go lower than the support level at 0.8800 (which currently serves as a barrier to any bearish attempts). The resistance level at 0.8900 is the target for this week or next week.

GBP/USD: Since the Cable broke out downwards from the equilibrium zone, it has been trending further downwards. Now, the price is trading below the distribution territory at 1.6500, targeting the accumulation territory at 1.6450. With a continuation of the selling pressure, the accumulation territory would soon be tested.

USD/JPY: The ‘buy’ signal that occurred on the USD/JPY is currently under threat – plus the signal would be totally rendered useless when the price closes below the EMA 56. Should the price fail to close below the EMA 56, the bullish signal would be renewed. Otherwise, one may prepared to sell.

EUR/JPY: Despite the bullish attempts that have been seen this week, the bearish indication on this currency trading instrument remains valid. Right now, the price is trading below the supply zone at 141.00, testing the demand zone at 141.50.

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