#USDX Analysis for October 4, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index is bouncing upwards, as the downward move has completed 5 waves and a pull back has been anticipated. Prices are trading near 38% Fibonacci retracement. We expect the upward bounce to continue and it may reach 50% or 61,8% retracements as shown in the chart below.

The 50% and 61,8% retracements also coincide with the blue downward sloping trendline that is strong resistance. We remain bearish as long as prices stay below that trendline and those two retracements. If prices manage to break above 80.10, then we will have to reconsider if short-term trend has changed. Until then, the short-term trend remains downward.

The longer-term trend is downward and the bigger picture is not good for bulls. The longer-term upward sloping trend channel is broken and prices are heading towards the 78.75-78.50 lows. The trend reversal at a daily level will come only if prices break above the 82.75 level. We trade according to our short-term trend signals and that is why we remain short. 80.10 is short-term stop for bears.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for October 4, 2013 Trend News

Gold has not broken below its neckline, but instead has bounced upwards towards the short-term resistance at 1,330. The trend remains downward as long as prices trade below 1,350-60 with target at 1,280-70, where the neckline is challenged. If prices break below the neckline, then we should anticipate more weakness towards 1,200 at first and then 1,150-1,140.

The daily chart shows clearly the bounce from the neckline and the fact that the trend remains downward as prices move below the downward sloping trendline that comes from 1,433 and touches 1,375 and 1,350 highs.

The short-term chart shows how gold prices after breaking down the short-term upward sloping trendline are now back testing this break level at 1,320-25. We expect prices not to be able to break above 1,325-30 and reverse downwards towards 1,300 again. We remain bearish and we look to add to short positions if prices break below 1,290 and 1,270.

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EUR/JPY H1 analysis for October 4, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 04/10/2013 09:30 CET

Five wave up sequence has been done and it looks like first impulsive wave is in place and now market is in corrective cycle.

If my analysis is right, it is going to be a quite deep ZigZag correction in wave (ii) that should hit the level of 131.63 for equall legs a=b. There is quite strong DEMAND area of the grey rectangle that sould provide the support.

Still the major clue for further wave progression would come if either of the important levels is broken: it is Demand Zone on one hand, and on the other hand it is a golden channel breakout.

Support/Resistance:

131.41 - 131.63 - DEMAND ZONE

132.12 - Techncial Support

132.47 - Weekly Pivot

132.97 - Intraday Resistance

133.17 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

The high probabillity setup comes with long entry at 131.63 with SL below 131.40. TP is open for now because it might be a nice swing trade.

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