AUD/USD - Sell below 0.9309 - daily strategy for July 17, 2013 Trend News

This morning at the American session, the Australian dollar was at the very bullish trading at 0.9275 levels, close to the strong resistance of 0.9309. Given that it is showing overbought levels, according to our momentum indicator, it is more likely to observe an imminent decline for the next few hours. So it is recommended to sell below 0.9310, at any price level with targets 0.9117, weekly pivot level. Yesterday’s trading was favored by the minutes of the Bank of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which reflected some level of concern about a possible resurgence of inflation, which would stop the interest rate cuts, this impulse to the Aussie. Now we believe that it must go back a few points.

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Dollar index still in downward corrective pattern 17/7/2013 Trend News

Dollar index has made a new low at 82.39 yesterday as expected by our analysis. We mentioned that the upward move from 82.42 was overlapping and not impulsive, therefore we labeled it as corrective. We were expecting this downward move to complete near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement but it just made a narrow new low. This downward correction might not be over yet. It may still have room to fall towards 82.20.

The decline from 84.75 is now a 3 wave move down that is in line with our Elliott wave analysis and labeling of this down move as corrective. Confirmation that this downward move has ended will come when prices break above the intermediate high at 83.45. Until then one can try and guess a bottom near the 61.8% retracement.

For short-term traders, breaking above the short term resistance at 83, will push prices to test 83.45 intermediate high. Stop for bulls should be the recent low at 82.39 as prices could head towards our initial target 82.20 the 61.8% retracement. I'm cautiously bullish as there still is high probability to see a new lower low.

Concluding we are neutral with potential entry level 82.20-10 or if a break above 83.45 occurs. Bears will need to have 83.45 as stop.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 17th 2013 Trend News

Gold managed to reach previous highs but prices got rejected at resistance. This first failure to break above the last high is not something bulls should worry about as it is very common to break resistances after second time. Gold is pulling back down now (currently at $1,285) to test suport levels. The sidways triangle was broken upwards and is now being back tested.

Gold short-term support is found at $1,280,1,275, and $1,266. Short-term resistance is found at $1,288 (pivot) and then $1,298 where the previous high is. We believe that eventually support will hold and prices will break above resistance and make a run towards $1,320-40. Breaking below the upward sloping trend line will be bearish and we will cancel our bullish scenario.

Concluding we remain bullish biased as long as prices trade above $1,275 and we expect the upward correction that started at $1,208 to end near $1,320-40. Today it is crucial for prices to trade above $1,288. Moving above that level will push prices towards $1,298 to be tested once again. I favor entering long near $1,283-80 with 1,275 stop and target 1,295. If $1,298 is broken, I believe we will see an acceleration towards $1,330-40.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 17, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6818

R2: 1.6756

R1: 1.6707

Current spot: 1.6680

S1: 1.6637

S2: 1.6608

S3: 1.6582

Technical overview:

We are looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.6707 and, more importantly, resistance at 1.6756 soon to confirm that the next powerful rally is developing. This next rally will likely take us to 1.7216, as the first target (blue wave iii), but in the long term we are looking for much higher levels. In the short term we are looking for support at 1.6637 to protect the downside for the break above minor resistance at 1.6707.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6335 with a stop at 1.6575. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy EUR upon a break above 1.6707 with the same stop at 1.6575.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 17, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 131.31

R2: 131.12

R1: 130.82

Current spot: 130.54

S1: 130.43

S2: 130.25

S3: 130.00

Technical overview:

Since the break above the channel resistance line occured we have seen a consolidation, but it should not be long before we see the next rally higher towards 131.37 and 132.48 as the next targets before the top at 133.81. We see this rally as a part of a very complex correction. In the short term we are looking for minor support at 130.25 to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 130.82 confirming the rally towards 131.37 and higher. In the long term we still see the possibility of a deeper correction towards the bottom of wave iv of one lesser degree at 118.73, but it is also possible that we will get a sub-normal correction of price, however it is in the longer term.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 130.60 with a stop placed at 128.85. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy close to 130.25 or upon a break above 130.82 (one order done cancels the other). Place your stop at 128.85 too.

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Silver targeting 21.00 for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

There is no change in the direction that was discussed last week for the metal. It is trading sideways for now, but implications are ripe for an extended rally towards 21.00 level, possibly after dropping into 19.50/70 region first. It is recommended to remain long for now for the same reason. Fresh longs could be initiated into 19.50/70 region. Resistance is into the 22.50 region, while it is around 18.70/75 and lower towards 18.00 level. A push through 21.00 level would more or less confirm that a bottom is in place at 18.00 level. Looking higher for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 18.50, target is at 21.00 at least.

Good luck!

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Silver targeting 21.00 for now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

There is no change in the direction that was discussed last week for the metal. It is trading sideways for now, but implications are ripe for an extended rally towards 21.00 level, possibly after dropping into 19.50/70 region first. It is recommended to remain long for now for the same reason. Fresh longs could be initiated into 19.50/70 region. Resistance is into the 22.50 region, while it is around 18.70/75 and lower towards 18.00 level. A push through 21.00 level would more or less confirm that a bottom is in place at 18.00 level. Looking higher for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 18.50, target is at 21.00 at least.

Good luck!

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Gold: Support cluster seen at 1,250/55 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has rallied into 3 waves till now from 1,180.00 to sub 1,300.00 levels. At the moment, trading sideways, and a dip towards 1,250/60 remains good possibility. A cluster of Fibonacci supports are also seen towards 1,250/55 region as depicted here. It is recommended to enter fresh longs between 1,250/60 region for a push through the 1,320.00 levels on the higher side. The fact still remains that 1,180.00 has been registered as a long-term bottom and the metal is towards forming series of higher highs and higher lows. Resistance is into the 1,400 region now, while support is strong at 1,210.00, followed by 1,180.00 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Expect a short-term dip towards 1,250/60 first; then go long, stop is at 1,230.00, and target is at 1,320.00.

Good luck!

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EurJpy: Bearish setup remains intact. Immediate resistance at 131.20 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

There are no major changes from what we discussed last week. The single currency pair has broken the immediate line of support, and has tested the backside of the same line at 131.20 region lately. It is quite possible that a right shoulder is being carved out; and minimum downside implications are towards 119.50 level as depicted here. It is recommended to continue holding short positions and also initiate fresh into intraday rallies. Immediate resistance is at 131.20, followed by 132.00 and 133/34 region; while support is at 119.00. A head and shoulder reversal towards 119.00 level should be into play till 131.20/50 and possibly 132.00 remains intact.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 132.50, and target is at 119.50.

Good luck!

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GbpChf breaks out of range. Selling rallies preferred now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The bearish structure is getting unfolded as expected here. Firstly, the currency pair is out of the trading range of 1.4250 and 1.4500. Secondly, it is also probably it breaks below the rising uptrend line as depicted here. It is recommended to hold initiated 50% short positions now (1.4220/25) and remain on rallies towards 1.4250/70 region. If the currency pair bounces off the trend line here, we might change our stance to bullish. The overall structure remains bearish with resistance placed at 1.48 and 1.5 on the higher side; while intermediary supports are 1.4075 and 1.4 respectively. Selling rallies should be a favored trading strategy for now.

Trading recommendations:

Sell 50% now and remain towards 1.4250/70 region, stop is at 1.4350, and target is at 1.4.

Good luck!

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