Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge jumped 32.18% to 14.54, S&P 500 tumbled 1.18% overnight) as the tensions between the West and Russia are escalating after the U.S. and European Union imposed a fresh round of sanctions on Moscow over the Ukraine conflict. The Malaysia Airlines passenger jet with 295 people aboard was shot down near the Russia-Ukraine border. The risk sentiment is also dented after the Chinese construction company Huatong Road and Bridge Group Co. said it may default on both the bond principal and interest payments on a 400 million yuan ($64.5 million) bond that matures next week. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before Japan's long weekend (financial markets in Japan are shut for public holiday on Monday). U.S. data overnight were mixed as less-than-expected 302,000 U.S. jobless claims in the week ended July 12 (versus 310,000 forecast) and surprise rise in Philadelphia Fed's index of general business activity to 23.9 in July from 17.8 in June (versus forecast for drop to 16.0) were offset by surprise 9.3% on-month fall in U.S. housing starts to nine-month low of 893,000 in June (versus forecast for rise to 1.015 million) and unexpected 4.2% on-month decline in U.S. building permits to 963,000 in June (versus forecast for rise to 1.04 million).

Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics has turned bearish.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.05. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 100.80. The pivot point stands at 101.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 101.80 and the second target at 102.05.

Resistance levels:

101.80

102.05

102.25

Support levels:

101.05

100.80

100.60

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and continued impact from softer-than-expected New Zealand 2Q CPI which dented odds of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, weak dairy prices, and Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential and positions adjustment before the weekend. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics is bearish, five-day moving average is falling below 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.8650. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8630. The pivot point stands at 0.8725. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then, it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8745 and the second target at 0.8785.

Resistance levels:

0.8745

0.8785

0.8815

Support levels:

0.8650

0.8630

0.86

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Technical analysis of GBPJPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the increased investor risk aversion and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and positions adjustment before Japan's long weekend. The daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics is bearish, although the latter is nearly in the oversold zone; five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.80. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 172.35. The pivot point stands at 173.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.10 and the second target at 174.55.

Resistance levels:

174.10

174.55

175.15



Support levels:

172.80

172.35

172

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Bullish breakout above the DAILY bearish channel took place exposing price levels around 1.6985 as a projection target.

Simultaneously, daily closure above 1.6820 took place enhancing a bullish impulse towards 1.6900 and 1.7000.

The GBP/USD pair managed to break through the psychological resistance around 1.7000 which previously provided extensive bearish pressure during the last visit on May 6.

Bullish pressure was applied at retesting the bullish channel lower limit depicted on the 4H chart. This pushed the pair towards 1.7150 where the upper limit of the depicted channel is located.

Bullish pressure was once applied as a trial to break through the upper limit of the 4H movement channel. However, lack of follow-through existed as bullish pressure being applied was not enough to ensure success of the bullish breakout.

On the other hand, Intraday resistance was established around 1.7150-1.7190. A short-term SELL position was suggested in the previous articles with SL located just above 1.7190.

The price levels of 1.7050 constitute a significant support level to meet the pair on its way downwards. It's also the key level to determine how deep bearish correction can go before resuming the bullish momentum.

The GBP/USD pair remains trapped roughly between 1.7170 and 1.7050 ( which is being tested today ). Breakout in either direction is needed to pursue towards further targets.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

The price zone of 1.3800-1.3880 (dotted on the chart) provided considerable SUPPLY for the EUR/USD pair. This price zone managed to pause the bullish momentum that originated off the depicted bullish trend line.

A Double Top pattern was formed after the neckline located at 1.3700 got broken down. Projection targets have already been hit shortly after.

Previous prominent bullish engulfing daily candlesticks emerged off 1.3500 (the lower limit of the ongoing channel) thus fixating again above 1.3560 (the key level corresponding to the previous prominent bottom).

As long as the backside of the broken bearish channel keeps holding the price above, the bulls will keep pushing higher towards 1.3640 and probably 1.3740.

The EUR/USD pair has been facing difficulty to fixate above the key level around 1.3640-1.3660 then successive bearish engulfing candlesticks originated off this price zone.

Bearish pressure which originated off 1.3650 has been applying pressure on 1.3560 (the key level corresponding to the previous prominent bottom) for two days resulting in daily closure below this price level exposing 1.3500 for retesting.

Bullish fixation above 1.3560 then 1.3640 is a must to pursue towards further bullish targets.

As long as the bulls keep defending the demand zone between 1.3500-1.3475, the bullish momentum is most likely to pursue towards further targets.

On the other hand, breakdown of 1.3500 invalidates the bullish structure allowing the bears to pursue initially towards the price level 1.3420.

Bullish pressure is expected to be applied around the current prices provided that the bears fail to fixate below 1.3500 on the daily basis.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms around 1.6465, 1.6555, and 1.6665 (corresponding to the uptrend line) constituted a solid bullish structure that kept pushing higher.

However, during the previous visit in May, the bullish momentum wasn't strong enough to allow the bullish breakout above 1.7000 to pursue towards further targets. Instead, this breakout lost its bullish momentum showing successive lower highs that temporarily managed to breakdown the depicted uptrend line.

This had been taking place until the GBP/USD pair showed bullish recovery around 1.6690 which was followed by strong bullish pressure that pushed above 1.7000 and 1.7150 thus challenging the new price levels that have not been visited since 2008.

Lack of bullish momentum and indecision were observed on the daily chart. This means the pair is trapped within a small congestion zone between 1.7050 and 1.7170.

On the other hand, the most dependable DEMAND level is located around 1.7050 (being tested today) where significant bullish rejection was expressed at retesting that took place on Tuesday.

Bullish fixation above 1.7000 enhanced the bullish channel scenario, thus enabling the bulls to reach 1.7100 and 1.7160 shortly after.

As expected, the price zone between 1.7140 - 1.7170 keeps providing evident bearish price movement each time a price zone is tested.

A pattern of multiple-tops was confirmed after breakdown of the depicted bullish channel. Moreover, the first bearish target was hit around 1.7055.

To avoid possible sudden reversals, bearish targets should be located at 1.7055 and 1.7000 where obvious demand levels are located.

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EUR/NZD analysis for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5623. We can observe low activity on the market today, so we are waiting for larger movement and volume. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resisntace level and I got Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.5615 (currently on the test). Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. The third major short-term downstation is still at the price of 1.5335 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe supply (up-thrust bar) in a volume above average.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5608

R2: 1.5630

R3: 1.5665

Support levels:

S1: 1.5337

S2: 1.5515

S3: 1.5479

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold analysis for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,323.61 in an ultra high volume according to the 4H timeframe. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe demand in a volume above average as well as testing our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,324.70. According to the 4H timeframe we can observe strong rejection in very high volume from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%. So, we may expect testing the level of 1,291.00 (Fibonacci expansion 61.8%) in the nearest term.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,324.25

R2: 1,330.81

R3: 1,341.43

Support levels:

S1: 1,303.01

S2: 1,296.45

S3: 1,285.83

Trading recommendations: Be careful with buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement.

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Daily analysis of Silver for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, the price’s closure below the Resistance level of 21.20 gave the metal new opportunities for sell signals. Currently, the metal has already managed to close below the Resistance level to trade below and open the way towards 20.75 as the first target. Then, the metal must test this Support level to get more bearish move till reaching 20.50 as the second target. On the other hand, the metal's rebound from the Support level of 20.75 cancels the bearish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (21.50), R2 (21.20), R1 (21.00), S1 (20.75), S2 (20.50), S3(20.20)

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview

The 4H chart shows that the pair failed to break the Support level of 172.75 and is still trading above it since yesterday. As we see, the pair bounced from the Support area again and started to take a slightly upward move approaching the Resistance level of 173.75. Currently, it is prefered to wait till closing above this Resistance level before making the decision. In this case, we will get more bullish signals with the first target few pips below the next Resistance level of 174.40; 175.00 is the second target. But closing below the Resistance level of 173.75 cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (175.00), R2 (174.40), R1 (173.75), S1 (173.30), S2 (172.75), S3 (172.30).

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 18/07/2014 11:00 CET

The market has made an extended fifth wave to the downside that has completed at the weekly support pivot level as anticipated. The recent low has been labeled as green wave 1 of the overall wave progression. Now, the market is in the corrective cycle of green wave 2. Please notice, that the alternate labeling suggests even more impulsive wave progression to the downside. The key level for the bears is at the technical resistance zone between the levels of 137.48 - 137.62. If this zone is not broken, there is still a possibility of one more wave to the downside.

Support/Resistance:

138.00 - Weekly Pivot

137.61 - 137.48 - Technical Resistance |Key Level for Bears|

137.41 - Intraday Resistance

137.17 - WS1

136.67 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to open a sell orders from the level of 137.41 with SL above the level of 137.63 and TP at the level of 136.67 with a possible downside extension.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The GBP/USD pair will probably move between 1.7154 and 1.7072. Consequently, it would be wise to be careful at this range area of 82 pips. In particular, it will be too meaningful to wait for a period of the tight sideway range market before investing. Equally important, the level of 1.7072 formed a strong support, as well as this price is matches 11% of the Fibonacci retracement levels (look at the chart). Therefore, the market is likely to start showing the signs of the bullish market. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above the 1.7072 level with the first target of 1.7110 in order to retest the weekly pivot point. Besides, it will climb towards the price of 1.7154 to retest weekly resistance. Additionally, it should also be noted that the weekly resistance 2 is set at 1.7201 and the double top has already set at the price of 1.7191. However, if the the pair does not break the double top, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.7191, then this level will act really as strong resistance.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• Supposedly, the USD/CHF pair is going to set strong resistance at the level of 0.90010 and support at 0.8863; but the minor support will be placed at the level of 0.8905. Equally important, the price is still moving between 0.8975 and 0.8900.

Also, the USD/CHF pair has still been below 100% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H4. As a result, the price has already formed the strong resistance at this level of 0.9010. Now,it is approaching this level in order to test it. Therefore, the Swissy will get a downside rather convincing momentum and the structure of the fall does not look corrective as it is indicating a bearish opportunity below the 0.9010 level or the double top 0.9036. So, it will a good sign to sell below these spots with a first target of 0.8946 (this level is coinciding with the ratio of Fibonacci retracement levels) and it will call for a downtrend in order to continue bearish move towards 0.8863. Additionally, it should be noted that the double bottom is going to set at the price of 0.8856. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, thus it will of the foresight to set your stop loss at the price of 0.9055.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 18 - 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5706

R2: 1.5650

R1: 1.5627

Current spot: 1.5571

S1: 1.5536

S2: 1.5513

S3: 1.5485

Technical summary:

We have seen the first minor five wave rally from 1.5398. Now, we will be looking for a correction towards the 1.5485 - 1.5513 area, before the next impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.5850 and possibly even high.

The expected minor correction from the 1.5627 high will represent the optimal risk/reward entry for a very long time.

Trading recommendation:

Our profit target at 1.5625 was hit for a nice profit. We have placed a new EUR-buy order at 1.5525 with stop placed at 1.5395 if done.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 18, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 137.42

R2: 137.22

R1: 137.13

Current spot: 137.07

S1: 137.03

S2: 136.78

S3: 136.50

Technical summary:

We have seen the expected move to 135.49 is still unfolding as predicted. We have seen a test of the channel support line near 136.71 and should expect a minor correction high to 137.42 before the next downside pressure to below 136.71 for a lower move to 135.49.

In the short term, a break below support at 136.97 will confirm the next decline to 136.71 and lower towards 135.49.

Trading recommendations:

We are short in EUR from 138.95 and will move our stop lower to 137.95. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 137.42 with the same stop at 137.95.

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