Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 117.95. Overnight, US stocks rebounded over 1% as energy shares surged on oil prices' stabilization. Pharmaceutical and software shares also performed well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% to 16,379, the S&P 500 gained 1.7% to 1,921, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.0% to 4,615.

Nymex crude oil increased 2.4% to $31.20 a barrel, gold gave up 1.5% to $1,076 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.100% from 2.070% in the previous session.

The US dollar remained firm with EUR/USD edging down 0.1% to 1.0864 and USD/JPY rising 0.3% to 118.04. At the same time, USD/CAD gained another 0.2% to 1.4364 and NZD/USD was down 0.7% to 0.6468. The pair posted a choppy trading session yesterday and stopped advancing before the key resistance at 117.95. Currently, it is seeking support from the 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average. Though the intraday relative strength index is above the neutrality level of 50, it shows lack of upward momentum. As long as 117.95 holds as the key resistance, the pair is expected to return to the first downside target at 116.80 before sinking further toward 116.50 (reaction low seen yesterday).

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.80. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 116.50. The pivot point stands at 117.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 118.35 and the second target at 118.60.

Resistance levels: 118.35, 118.60, 119

Support levels: 116.80, 116.50, 116

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

USD/CHF is under pressure. Currently trading at 0.9980, the pair is facing the challenge of its major resistance at 1.0090 on an intraday basis. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning down, and the relative strength index has lost its upward momentum. These technical elements indicate that a new pullback may take place in the coming trading hours. To sum up, as long as 1.0090 holds on the upside, look for 0.9955 and 0.9990 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9955. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.99. The pivot point stands at 1.0090. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.0140 and the second target at 1.0179.

Resistance levels: 1.0140, 1.0170, 1.0210

Support levels: 0.9955, 0.99, 0.9865

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 0.6465. Despite yesterday's technical rebound, the pair remains under pressure below its key resistance at 0.6465. The upward potential is likely to be limited by this threshold. Furthermore, the 50-period moving average is still declining, which suggests that the downside prevails. In this case, as long as 0.6465 holds on the upside, look for a new pullback to test 0.6365 (the previous swing low). In case of a breakout, further drop is likely to be towards 0.6335.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6365. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6335. The pivot point stands at 0.6465. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6510 and the second target at 0.6540.

Resistance levels: 0.6510, 0.6540, 0.6575

Support levels: 0.6365, 0.6335, 0.63

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as the key resistance is at 169.85. The pair is reversing down and stays below its key resistance at 169.85. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. The first target to the downside is set at the horizontal support and overlap at 167. A break below this level would open the way to further weakness towards 166.50.

Trading Recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 167. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 166.50. The pivot point stands at 169.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 170.60 and the second target at 171.35.

Resistance levels: 170.60, 171.35, 172

Support levels: 167, 166.50, 165.75

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Daily analysis of Silver for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

The silver price bounced downward, as expected in our last report, to approach testing of the sideways range support at 13.65, fluctuating within this track. Its resistance line is located at 14.25, noticing that stochastic shows positive signals now that might push the price to test the mentioned resistance in upcoming sessions. In general, we still expect a sideways move on an intraday basis until the price manages to surpass one of the mentioned levels. Breaching the 14.25 resistance represents the start of a bullish correction with its next main target located at 15.30. Breaking the 13.65 support will put the price under negative pressure. Its main targets begin at 13.00. Until now, the sideways range is still dominating on an intraday basis, and the price needs to breach one of this range's lines represented by the 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance to detect net targets clearly, while the details of these targets are explained in our morning report. An expected trading range for today is between 13.65 support and 14.25 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Intraday bias remains downward in the GBP/JPY pair for next long-term Fibonacci level at 165.67. On the upside, the bias will turn neutral and bring the first consolidation above minor resistance at 173.35. But recovery should be limited below the level of 180.36 where support turned resistance resulting in a fall resumption. The current development confirmed medium-term topping at 195.86 on condition of bearish divergence in the weekly MACD. A fall from 195.86 is currently viewed as a correction and would first target 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. We should assess the depth of correction based on reactions to 165.67 and the structure of the decline. A breakout of 180.36 will bring a rebound but we expect strong resistance to bring another fall to extend the corrective pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.14; (P) 169.82; (R1) 170.82;

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Gold : analysis for January 15 , 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,071.26. In the daily time frame, we can observe strong supply and a wide range of bars. Buying at this stage looks risky since the price rejected our strong resistance. The intraday trend is downward. According to the M30 time frame, the trend is strongly downward. The price rejected from our 100 SMA. Intraday target is set at the level of $1,071.00. Be careful when buying gold at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities. The key support for gold is at the level of $1,046.00. The potential breakout of the level of $1,046.00 will confirm short-term continuation of a downward trend.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,087.70

R2: 1,098.50

R3: 1,105.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,070.00

S2: 1,062.90

S3: 1,052.00

Trading recommendations: Watch for potential selling opportunities, buying looks risky.

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EUR/NZD analysis for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.7067 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, the price has broken 100 SMA and resistance at the level of 1.6760. In the H1 time frame, I found that the price has broken the bullish flag pattern. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. Watch for potential buying opportunities on dips. The next upward station is seen around the level of 1.7330 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). I also found a daily swing low around the level of 1.7330, which is acting as resistance right now.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6955

R2: 1.7035

R3: 1.7165

Support levels:

S1: 1.6695

S2: 1.6615

S3: 1.6480

Trading recommendations: The short-term trend is still upward. So, watch for potential buying opportunities on dips.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

• The USD/CAD pair continues to show signs of strength following a breakout at 1.4468. The new support is found at 1.4468. This support is coinciding with a ratio of 88.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Therefore, the trend's resistance was broken and turned to support yesterday. Another thought is that the price broke the EMA (100) in order to hold an uptrend from the level of 1.4468. Also, it should be noticed that the USD/CAD pair has already formed a minor resistance at the level of 1.4601 (a new double bottom today); so the range is seen between the levels of 1.4468 and 1.4601 now. Accordingly, the market is going to indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.4468 with the first target at 1.4575 and continue towards 1.4601. At the same time, if the trend breaks this level and closes below 1.4468, it will call for downside momentum. It is rather convincing since the structure of the fall does not look corrective. Thereupon, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity at 1.4468. Hence, sell at this level in the short term. But generally, the trend is still calling for the strong bullish market, for that it should never go against the trend nowadays.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

The psychological level of the GBP/USD pair is seen at the level of 1.4407. This level is acting as strong resistance and it coincides with a ratio of 11.8% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the daily chart. Therefore, the first key level is seen at 1.4407 (the daily pivot point). Furthermore, a trend was very clear heading downwards. Thus, we expect that the trend is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 1.4407 because sellers are asking for a higher price. As a result, sell at the level of 1.4407 with a target at 1.4300 and 1.4240. Also, it should be noted that the level of 1.4234 represents the weekly support 3.

Observations:

• Major support is found at the level of 1.4234; and major resistance has placed at the daily pivot point (1.4407)
• We expect a new range about 120 pips.
• If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

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Global macro overview for 15/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 15/01/2016:

There is a bunch of important data from the US to be released at 02:55 GMT today. One of the most anticipated is Michigan Consumer Expectations for the month of January. The consumer sentiment index in January is expected to improve to the level of 92.2 from 91.8 in December, which is the first positive data for 2016. The recent upbeat NFP number (4th month in a row) and cheap gasoline ( and crude oil) might greatly contribute to even more upbeat reading. Nevertheless, previous cycle highs of the sentiment are still far away, so there is much room to go.

The SPY (SP500 EFT) is falling towards the bulls last resort demand zone. The next resistance is seen at the level of 194.89 and next support is seen at the level of 186.95.

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Global macro overview for 15/01/2016 Market Analysis Review

Global macro overview for 15/01/2016:

Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5% and reminded split eight-to-one on interest rate decision. Ian McCafferty remained the only dissenter voting for an immediate hike of 0.25 basis points. The Monetary Policy Committee said the recovery in inflation would be "a little more modest than previously assumed," while business surveys signal a slower pace of growth. Policy makers revised downwards their estimates for the last quarter and this quarter expansion to 0.5%. Moreover, the current leading bank economists are arguing whether the BoE is be able to raise the interest rate in 2016, and the vast majority of the market participants believes the regulator will not be able to raise the benchmark rate until the middle of 2017.

The GBP/USD pair fell down to the weekly support level at 1.4352 threatening to break below it. In that case, the next important support will be found at the level of 1.4223.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 15/01/2016:

There is one more sub-wave to the downside possible before the uptrend rebounds as wave b purple progression is getting more complex and time-consuming. A target for the potential wave c purple is still seen at the level of 129.61, just above the old wave -iv- top. Nevertheless, to confirm this scenario, the price must break out higher above the golden trend line in an impulsive fashion.

Support/Resistance:

127.31 - Intraday Support

128.31 - Weekly Pivot

129.08 - Intraday Resistance

129.31 - Wave c Target Projection

131.01 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should place buy orders from current market levels witch SL just below the last intraday support at the level of 127.31 and TP at the level of 129.61.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 15/01/2016:

The pair made the last spike up early this morning as the last wave to the upside has been completed. The top has reached the level of 1.4529 and it looks like the longer term swing high might be in place. The bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports the view, but the first confirmation comes with a breakout at the level of 1.4395.

Support/Resistance:

1.4529 - Intraday Resistance

1.4443 - WR2

1.4395 - Intraday Support

1.4355 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Aggressive day traders and swing traders might consider placing sell orders as close as it is possible to the current swing at the level of 1.4529 with a SL just above it and TP open for now.

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Technical analysis of Silver for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver dropped to Fibonacci 0.786 support of the entire rally between the levels of $13.70 and $14.20. It has bounced off since then, and is trading around $13.85 at the moment looking for an opportunity to extend its rally towards $14.30 and $14.50. Please note that the drop from $14.20 looks corrective and bulls should remain poised to take control back until prices stay above the level of $13.65. It is hence recommended to remain long and look for a chance to add further positions, with risk at $13.45. Immediate support is seen at $13.65, while resistance is seen at $14.20.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now with stop at $13.45, targets are at $14.50 and $15.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for January 15, 2016 Market Analysis Review

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around the level of $1,083.00 at the moment after reaching a low of $1,071.00 yesterday. The metal is poised to stage an extended rally towards $1,125.00 and $1,136.00 respectively in coming days. Please note that the metal has still bounced off the Fibonacci 0.618 support around $1,078.00 and also close to the rising trend line. Immediate support is seen at $1,058.00/1,060.00, while resistance is seen at $1,095.00 respectively. It is hence recommended to remain long with risk at $1,060.00. Bulls seem to be poised to remain in control until prices stay above $1,060.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $1,057.00, targets are at $1,125.00 and $1,136.00.

Good luck!

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