Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for October 1, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6514

R2: 1.6418

R1: 1.6353

Current Spot: 1.6288

S1: 1.6256

S2: 1.6220

S3: 1.6200

Technical summary:

As long as minor resistance at 1.6353 protects the upside we could see a deeper decline towards 1.6200, before wave ii is over. However, once we break above 1.6353 and more importantly above 1.6418 we should see a powerful acceleration higher towards at least 1.6800 and likely even higher towards the former top at 1.7274. The rally from the fifth low at 1.6089 has all the characteristics of an impulsive rally and therefore it should just be a matter of time before the next powerful rally higher begins.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long from 1.6315 with a stop at 1.6175. If you are not long in EUR, then buy at 1.6220 or upon a break above 1.6353 with the same stop at 1.6175.

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#USDX Analysis for September 30, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index is to our 80 target by reaching 80.12. The index remains in downtrend, despite the upward bounce towards 80.40 that it made earlier today. Prices are moving down in an impulsive pattern and this places our next target at 80 or below. We remain bearish as long as prices trade below 80.65.

The bearish flag that we mentioned in the previous posts has broken downwards but also made a couple of back tests that got rejected at the resistance of 80.65. We expect prices to continue lower after the double rejection.

The lower lows and lower highs as shown in the 1-hour charts confirm that the trend is down and as long as prices trade below 80.65 it will remain like this. Therefore, the next target is at 80 or slightly below that level after today's upward bounce. A break above 81 could change a lot regarding both our short- and longer-term view on this index. If 81 is broken upwards, then the longer-term trend could again change to upward. For the time being we remain short as more Dollar weakness is expected.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 30, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6504

R2: 1.6418

R1: 1.6353

Current Spot: 1.6300

S1: 1.6264

S2: 1.6219

S3: 1.6200

Technical summary:

It is not quite clear whether wave ii ended at 1.6219 or that just was wave a of ii. We do favor the scenario, where wave ii did end at 1.6219, but we will have to stay flexible. If we only have seen wave a at 1.6219, then wave b of ii took us to 1.6418 and wave c of ii is currently unfolding for a move lower towards 1.6200, before wave iii takes over for a rally higher, at least, to 1.6776. Only a direct break above 1.6353 and more importantly a break above 1.6418 will confirm that wave iii is developing for the rally towards 1.6776 and higher towards 1.7274 in the longer term.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6315 and move you stop to 1.6175. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy at 1.6220 or upon a break above 1.6353 with the same stop at 1.6175.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 30, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 133.53

R2: 132.95

R1: 132.42

Current Spot: 132.05

S1: 131.34

S2: 130.95

S3: 130.51

Technical summary:

With the break below 132.88 late Friday we knew, that the 1-2/1-2 scenario was incorrect, and we needed to switch to our expanded leading diagonal scenario. This scenario calls for a deeper correction towards 132.11 and, maybe, even lower towards 131.43. For now, we have seen a low at 131.73 and, therefore, we should expect a short-term correction towards 132.42, before the next push lower towards the ideal corrective target near 131.43. Only from here we should expect wave iii to take over for the next impulsive rally higher towards 137.45 and possibly higher. But for now, we should stay focused on the downside as wave ii is in power.

Trading recommendation:

The stop at 132.85 was triggered for a small loss. Place a new EUR buy-order at 131.55 with a stop at 129.25 or buy EUR upon a break above 133.53 with a stop a few pips below the most recent low.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Strong bullish sentiment was found in the support zone around 1.4830, which pushed the pair to the upside reaching 1.5400 then 1.5700 where two prominent tops were established.

The uptrend line around 1.5430-1.5400 applied bullish pressure on the pair which was able to break trough 1.5720 which corresponds to August's highest level and the recently established top.

The market expressed obvious closure above 1.5575 which invalidated the H&S reversal pattern. This opened the way towards 1.5900, 1.6000 and 1.6170.

It is important to note that the market expressed bearish rejection off 1.6150 which resulted in an inverted hammer WEEKLY candlestick. That is why, bearish movement was expected to take place during this week provided that the bears remain defending the weekly high at 1.6150. However, lack of bearish momentum enhanced by the weakness of the USD prevented further decline.

Fibonacci expansion 100% is located at 1.6040 where the upper limit of the ongoing channel is located. Stablilization above this level opens the way towards the next one around 1.6200 where Fibonacci Expansion 127.2% is located.

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#USDX Analysis for September 27, 2013 Trend News

The price formation from the 80.05 low to yesterday's 80.62 is not impulsive. The sideways pattern makes us believe that this is just a pause to the larger downtrend. Prices got rejected once again at the 80.65 resistance and we believe that soon downward pressures will reappear.

However, if prices break above the red resistance trendline at 80.65-70, we will anticipate a move towards 81 with 80.28 as a stop. However, we believe that it is more possible to see a new low towards 80-79.90.

The daily chart confirms the fact that the resistance still holds and that prices cannot manage to break above it. When resistance is not broken, it is expected to see a downward move instead. So we remain bearish biased as long as prices stay below 80.65.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Gold made a strong pull back yesterday from 1,338 to 1,320 breaking the short-term support. The upward sloping trendline was broken but the important support at 1,300 still holds. Prices have risen as much as the 50% retracement and if we look at this having a short position, then we could say that the upward correction can be over and prices will be starting a new downward move.

Bulls, on the one hand, see the support at 1,300-1,310 holds, but bears, on the other hand, see that prices pulled back down from the 50% retracement. It is very possible to see another move upwards towards 1,340-45, but for now we remain neutral as the current price action and the price pattern does not provide us with a good risk/reward opportunity. Important levels for trading are 1,291 and 1,375. If prices break any of these two levels, then we should expect a big move. If prices move close to these levels, we should take action in favor of the support or resistance. For example, if prices move towards 1,300 and support holds, then we should take action in favor of the support by buying with 1,291 stop reverse. The opposite, if prices move towards 1,645-50, where the 61,8% and 76,4% Fibonacci resistance levels are, we should sell with 1,375 as stop reverse.

Concluding we remain neutral now, as the short-term support has failed, as prices could move lower towards 1,300 and give another buy opportunity. Until then we remain on the sidelines waiting for a good opportunity to come once a signal is given.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 27, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.71

R2: 134.00

R1: 133.58

Current Spot: 133.19

S1: 132.88

S2: 132.68

S3: 132.27

Technical Summary:

As we broke back below the neckline of the inverted S/H/S bottom, that was, of couse, invalidated and caused a deeper decline. However, the short-term count with the highest odds shows a possible new and even bigger inverted S/H/S bottom building (see the 15-minute chart below). To trigger this bottom, we need a break above 133.58 and more importantly a break above 134.00, which will call for a rally higher towards 135.32 on the way higher to 137.45.

The risk to the above scenario is a break below 132.88, that will shift the odds towards the expanding leading diagonal we mentioned a few days ago. If this count becomes the preferred count we are only in wave ii and should see a deeper correction towards 132.11 and, maybe, even lower towards 131.43, before wave ii is over.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 133.60 with stop at 132.85. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy upon a break above 133.58 with the same stop at 132.85.

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#USDX Analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index formed a bearish flag that we noted in yesterday's analysis, which should make us anticipate a break down in prices. Once the flag was broken, prices fell towards 80.30-20 and are now making a back test bounce. I expect the downtrend to resume soon towards 80.

The short-term resistance that could change short-term trend if broken is at the 80.60 price level. The trend is expected to continue downwards and if the low at 80.28 is broken, we could witness a downward acceleration towards 80. The main component of the Dollar Index is EURUSD and from its point of view things are pretty bearish for the Dollar.

Concluding, the upward bounce at the start of today's session is most probably a back test. I anticipate lower prices as long as 80.60 is not broken upwards. Support is now found at 80.30 that if broken will push prices lower towards 80.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 26, 2013 Trend News

Gold, as expected by our analysis, has started a small trend reversal with an upward direction. Prices have been supported at 1,300-1,320 and are now making a try to challenge the highs. Prices are forming a pattern with higher highs and higher lows. This confirms the short-term trend change to upward. We expected this bounce to come from this price area as the support at 1,300-1,310 was very important. Currently, trading near 1,337, Gold is possible to continue much higher as long as the support at 1,315-22 holds.

The downward move from 1,375 to 1,305 has a Fibonacci retracement of 61,8% and 50% at 1,347 and 1,341. These two levels are important resistance levels, and if they are broken upwards, the chances to break above 1,375 towards 1,400 will rise. The initial 5 waves up from 1,291 to 1,375 made us expect a short-term bottom near 1,320-1,310 and that is exactly what happened. Our wave analysis anticipates now another leg up similar to the first one from 1,291 to 1,375.

The daily chart shows clearly that 1,300 is important support and the next leg up could target once again the broken blue trendline as it did in the first upward move at 1,375. Now the target is near 1,390-1,400 and rising. However, we must focus on the price structure from 1,305 and when we see 5 waves up completed, we should exit whether the target was hit or not. Breaking below 1,300-1,290 will push the precious metal towards 1,250-1,200. Concluding we remain long as long as prices trade above the short-term support at 1,320 and the longer-term support at 1,300. Target is at 1,370-1,400.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 26, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6542

R2: 1.6473

R1: 1.6407

Current Spot: 1.6392

S1: 1.6368

S2: 1.6329

S3: 1.6302

Technical summary:

We saw a attempt top break clearly above resistance at 1.6380, but it was not successful, instead we are seeing a consolidation just around this resistance, but it should only be a matter of time, before we will see the next rally higher. In the short term we will see a slight downside pressure as long as minor resistance at 1.6407 protects the upside, which could cause a move towards 1.6329, but from here or upon a break above 1.6407 the upside is open again for the next rally higher towards strong resistance at 1.6542.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6275 and move your stop higher to 1.6255. If you are not long in EUR, buy near 1.6329 or upon a break above 1.6407 (one order done cancels the other), with the same stop at 1.6255.

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Silver consolidates for now. 21.00 remains key Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal is consolidating in a small range just ahead of 21.00 level. A break down here would warrant further weakness in the counter towards the 20.00 region. On the flip side, a rally past 22.00 would run up into mid 24.00 before deciding further moves. Intermediary resistance is at 23.50, followed by 25.00 on the higher side, while support is at 21.00, followed by 19.00 level respectively. It is recommended to remain long for now, with a stop just below 21.00 level in anticipation for a wave 3 rally into 24.00 level, before deciding to move further.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 21.00, and target is open.

Good luck!

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Gold might be forming intermediary support at 1,290.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal is virtually unchanged since last 2-3 sessions and is moving in a tight range 1,320/30 region. A push above 1,330.00 would confirm that the metal would want to retest the backside of support line, which is acting as resistance now into 1,400 level. On the flip side, a break of 1,290.00 level would confirm that a meaningful top is formed at 1,440.00 and a subsequently at 1,370/80. In the latter scenario, our trading strategy would change to selling on rallies. For now, it is recommended to remain long with risk just below 1,270.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 1,270.00, and target is at 1,405/10.

Good luck!

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EurJpy consolidating. 131.75 support Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair is consolidating/forming base at the following convergence depicted on chart view:

1. Recent support trend line.

2. Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the latest upswing around 132.50.

3. Past resistance turned support region.

A bullish reversal signal appearance here, would warrant that the pair is heading towards fresh highs above 135.00 level. Immediate support is at 131.75, while resistance is at 134.80/135.00 respectively. Looking for a bullish reversal.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 131.50, and target is open.

Good luck!

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GbpChf remains unchanged around 1.46. Remain long Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair remains virtually unchanged from yesterday. It is recommended to remain long for now, keeping risk below 1.4500 from here on. Immediate resistance level is 1.48, while support begins from 1.42, followed by 1.4070 respectively. Please note that strong resistance is seen at 1.49 level, re-enforced by the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level of the entire down swing from 1.54 to 1.4. The recent lows formed around 1.4550 level is also re-enforced by past resistance turned support. High probability remains for a possible last leg rally into 1.49, before reversing. Looking higher for now.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 1.45, and target is at 1.49.

Good luck!

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#USDX analysis for September 25, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has broken outside of the downward sloping trend channel. However, the break out has not been accompanied by an upward impulsive move. The move is a sideways pattern with overlapping structure and no clear trend. The pattern looks more like a bearish flag ready to break downards.

The Dollar Index currently trades at 80.50 having tested yesterday our resistance at 80.65, but not being able to break impulsively above it. Support is found at 80.45. If broken then the bearish flag pattern will have given a sell signal with 80.20-80 as target.

The above chart shows how prices have moved outside of the downward sloping channel. This is a good sign for the bulls. But there is no upward impulsive move. The prices did not even manage to break above 80.65. We remain bearish biased as long as the prices stay below 80.65 with 80.20-80 as target.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 25, 2013 Trend News

Yesterday Gold managed to break above the 1,329 resistance but it got rejected. Gold has most probably made 5 waves up from the low of 1,305 and we expect a small pullback towards 1,315 to take place. We are bullish as long as the prices trade above 1,305. It is important to note the important resistance and support levels but also to make a good position and risk management when it comes to this bullish view. We are going to enter the minimum position possible long near 1,315 with 1,305 stop and will add to this position if the prices break above 1,330.

This way we are going to take part in the bullish move upwards if the prices confirm our view and move towards 1,330. But if Gold breaks our stop level then we would have risked a minimum position. If our view proves correct, then the resistance at 1,330 will break and we will add to our long position. Our initial target, if resistance at 1,330 is broken, is the 1,375 high and then 1,390-1,400.

Gold seems like it has found support above 1,300 and we could soon expect an upward move. We are cautiously bullish near 1,315 with stop at 1,305.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 25, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6507

R2: 1.6451

R1: 1.6389

Current Spot: 1.6372

S1: 1.6311

S2: 1.6255

S3: 1.6227

Technical summary:

What should have been the final decline to a new low near 1.6011 turned out to be a fifth failure, with a low at 1.6089 and we have now begun a new major rally. The first major target for this rally is at 1.7475. Of cause we will meet resistance as we move higher towards 1.7475 the first coming in at 1.6389 followed by resistance at 1.6542 (38.2% of wave C); 1.6682 (50% of wave C) and 1.6821 (61.8% of wave C). As long as resistance at 1.6380 protects the upside we could see a decline towards 1.6230 before the next move higher, but once resistance at 1.6380 breaks we should see an acceleration higher. At this point only a break below 1.6089 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

The stop (for a small loss) + revers of the short position to a new long position was hit at 1.6275. The new stop for the long EUR position will be placed at 1.6085.

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#USDX Analysis for September 24, 2013 Trend News

Nothing new regarding the Dollar Index. The prices continue to trade around the 80.50 price level. It continues to trade within the downward sloping channel testing the upper boundaries of the channel. Soon we should expect the prices to trend towards either direction. If resistance at 80.65 is broken, then in the short term will change to up with first target 81.10. If however the prices continue to trade below 80.65, we should anticipate the trend to resume downwards as the longer term is still down. Target if trend resumes downwards is 80.

Nothing has changed in the daily level. Trend remains down and we expect prices to continue their downward move once this sideways action is over. We cannot rule out a visit towards 81 if prices break above 80.65.

Concluding we remain bearish biased as long as prices trade below 80.65. Nothing new from yesterday's session. We still wait for a breakout.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 24, 2013 Trend News

Gold did not made much improvement towards any direction yesterday. The sideways move has kept the precious metal between the 1,315-28 range. It is very possible that this correction will end with another leg down towards 1,300. Important support is found at 1,291 and 1,272. We are neutral with a small upward bias. If prices break above 1,333 resistance we will enter long targeting 1,400.

The hourly chart shows that the decline has paused between the 76.4% and 61.8% retracement. This is an important support level relative to the upward move from 1,291 to 1,375. We expect the prices to move upwards soon and start a new upward move towards 1,400.

The daily chart above shows that prices are supported near the 1,280-1,300 area. This support if held, we should anticipate another upward move towards 1,400. So we remain sightly bullish as long as the prices stay above support.

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Silver remains bullish in the short term. 21.00 key level Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver remains unchanged from what was discussed yesterday. Having bounced off from the 0.618 Fibonacci support last week, the metal looks to be poised to extend rally into the sub 24.00 zone, before deciding the next big move ahead. Intermediary resistance remains at sub 25.00 level, while support is at 21.00/20 levels, followed by 119.00 respectively. It is recommended to remain long for now, with risk just below 21.00 level. A wave 3 rally is anticipated to run into 24.30/50 region before running down towards the larger trend, which is down.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, add further, stop is below 21.00, and target is at 24.00/30.

Good luck!

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Gold showing signs of rally into 1,400 again Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The yellow metal looks to be preparing for a wave 3 rally into 1,400s again before the next move could be determined. It is recommended to remain long for now with risk below 1,270.00 level. Intermediary resistance is at 1,440.00 level, while support is at 1,270.00 respectively. A straight fall from current levels (1,320/30), breaking down 1,270.00 would prove extremely bearish and turn our trade strategy to selling rallies. At the moment, the possibility of a wave 3 rally (at least), cannot be ruled out. The rally could be extending itself into 1,405/10 levels before the next action could be determined.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, add further now, stop is below 1,270.00, and target is at 1,400/10.

Good luck!

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EurJpy: Rally to continue. 133.00/10 immediate support Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency is being supported by 133.00/10 region, the past resistance turned support zone. It is recommended to remain long and also add further now. Intermediary resistance is the 134.70/80 region, while support is at 131.50/75 respectively. A bullish bounce is warranted around current levels, which is also re-enforced by the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement levels of recent upswing from 131.50/75 to 135.00 level. The overall structure suggests that another rally should print higher highs above sub 135.00 level before any change in trend takes place. The rising trend line support is also around 133.00 region at present.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, add further positions, stop is at 131.50, and target is open.

Good luck!

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GbpChf: Long positions can be initiated. 1.42 strong support Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair is forming base around 1.45 level, as discussed yesterday. This is also re-enforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci support of the recent upswing between 1.42 and 1.48. Furthermore, the past resistance turned support region is also around 1.45 level. Smaller time frames have produced a bullish reversal as depicted here (1/4 Hour). It is recommended to hold long positions initiated yesterday with risk just below 1.45. Intermediary resistance is the 1.48 level, while support is at 1.42 respectively. It is quite possible that the single currency pair retraces further down to 1.44/43 levels before resuming rally. In that case we shall re-enter buying at lower levels.

Trading recommendations:

Initiate long positions, stop is below 1.45, and target is at 1.49.

Good luck!

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Silver bounces off 0.618 at 21.20/50. Follow up required now Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver produced bullish bounce from 0.618 Fibonacci support levels last week. At the moment, it is re-testing the same support level, before rallying towards 24.20/40 levels atleast. Intermediary resistance is at 25.00 level; while support is at 21.00 level respectively. A push lower would bring 20.40/50 levels into focus and a break there would turn extremely bearish. Overall structure suggests of a temporary rally (wave 3) into sub 24.00 level before turning lower again.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 21.00, target 24.50 at least.

Good luck!

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Gold has tested backside of the support line. 1,270 remains key Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The yellow metal has done the following in past few trading sessions:

1. Broken the channel/support line.

2. Rallied back and tested the support turned resistance region around 1,380.00 level.

3. Support at 1,270.00 still remains intact.

Possibilities from here are:

1. Consolidation at current level and then continued rally. 1,405/10 region will be acting as strong resistance though.

2. In case of 1,270.00 break, the metal would turn towards fresh lows and selling rallies would be favored.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is below 1,270.00.

Good luck!

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EurJpy may print another high. Stay long for now and reduce risk Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair finally prints fresh highs close to 135.00 level last week, as expected. It is recommended to remain long, and reduce risk to 131.50 level. At the moment, the prices are finding support just ahead of the past resistance turned support region around 133.20/30 (horizontal line). It remains likely that further rally would see the prices hitting fresh highs, before a possible reversal. Resistance intermediary is at 134.70/80 region, while support is at 133.20/30 region, followed by 131.75 respectively. Overall structure still remains constructive for the bulls, look higher levels from here on. On the flip side, a break below the initial support of 131.70/75 would change out trading strategy.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 131.50, target fresh high.

Good luck!

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GbpChf: Pullback might be over around 1.4550 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The single currency pair pulled back from recent swing highs (from 1.4800 level). At the moment it looks like the retracement/pullback may have completed around sub 1.4540/50. This level is also re-enforced by past resistance turned turned support region of the rally that had begun from 1.4070 level earlier. Immediate intermediary resistance is at 1.48 level, followed by 1.50 level; while support extends to 1.42 level followed by 1.4 respectively. It is recommended to book profits on short positions if taken earlier and also plan to initiate long positions. Looking into the overall structure, this rally could possibly extend itself to 1.49 level before reversing, kindly note that Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire fall from 1.54 level to 1.4 is also around 1.49.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on short positions if taken earlier. Initiate long positions now. Stop is below 1.45, and target is at 1.49.

Good luck!

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#USDX analysis for September 23, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has not made much improvement to the upside and has only moved in a corrective pattern sideways towards the downward channel boundaries. This brings resistance levels lower and soon will be put to the test. Most probable outcome will be for the Dollar Index to make a new lower low towards 80, but we should not exclude any upward surprise specially if the short-term resistance at 80.65-50 is broken upwards.

The prices continue to trade within the downward sloping channel and if the bulls want to have even the slight chance of trend reversal, the index will first need to break above 80.65 and then move above 81.45. Trend remains down and short-term support is found at 80.20. Short positions at 82.40-45 are favored with 82.65 stop and target near 80 or even a new low at 79.90.

The daily picture remains ugly and re-enforces our view that a new low should be expected as the downward pressures are most probably only making a pause. More selling pressures are expected for the Dollar Index that will put the low at 78.85 to the test. Support in the daily chart is found at 79.20-78.85 and resistance at 81.60-82.15. Concluding we prefer short positions as long as the prices trade below 80.65 with 80 as the first target.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 23, 2013 Trend News

Our bearish view on Gold got confirmed and brought us profits as our targets were reached. Early on Monday Gold has tested the 1,300 support and now is trading near 1,327. The pullback down was expected and since the lows are not broken the bulls can be confident of another upward move. Since the low at 1,291 was not broken we can talk about a possible upward move expectation that would test the previous highs at 1,375.

Gold has retraced a bit more than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and we can now say that it has ended the downward correction. If the prices do not break below 1,300-1,291 level, then we could see an upward move towards 1,365 or even 1,430. First short-term resistance is found at 1,342 and then at 1,365. Support is found at 1,309-1,300 and 1,291.

The bulls could use the lows as stop to enter long positions with 1,370 as the first target. Adding to longs above 1,342 could be wise in order to manage better potential risk of failing support at 1,309 if our view is not confirmed. Long-term support is found at 1,270-90 area and that is why we could justify an upward move from these levels. We are now neutral to the bulls as long as the prices trade above 1,300 targeting 1,370. If support fails then we should expect the low at 1,272 to be tested.

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#USDX Analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Dollar is still in downtrend but making a small upward bounce as expected by our last analysis to test the upper boundaries of the downward sloping channel. Trend remains down and it will be very difficult for the bulls to manage and reverse this trend after the sharp spike down after Bernanke's comments last Wednesday.

The prices could continue their upward correction towards the 80.65-70 price level. Trend remains down and it is very possible to see a new lower low towards 79.80-70. The bulls will not only have to break above 80.70-80 channel resistance but will need to overcome 81.45 in order for the short-term trend to reverse upwards.

On the daily chart things are rather unpleasant for the long-term trend. Unless the prices manage to move back above 81.10-20 early next week, chances of seeing 82.50-70 anytime soon will be very slim. The longer it takes to reverse, the less possible it is for this downward move to be fake break down. Concluding, we remain neutral as no good risk/reward opportunity is found.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 20, 2013 Trend News

As mentioned in yesterday's analysis Gold has most probably finished its upward move from 1,291 and is now making a reversal. Prices are expected to fall towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement if not towards the 61.8% retracement. We are bearish with the first target 1,346 and second at 1,328.

The prices are heading lower and support is found at 1,320-10 level. If this price level is broken then we could expect the low at 1,291 to be tested. If that low is broken then we should see prices challenge the 1,272 low with increased possibility to break it. The prices have now back tested the broken upward sloping blue trend line. If support at 1,300-1,290 is not broken, then the bulls will most probably have another chance to test 1,400 resistance.

Concluding we are short-term bearish from 1,365-70 with 1,376 stop and target 1,346 and 1,328. The form of the decline from recent high will determine how far we fall and if there is a chance of making a new lower low, than 1,291. We need to give the price more time to unfold and give us more information whether this downward move is corrective or impulsive.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 20, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6348

R2: 1.6263

R1: 1.6193

Current Spot: 1.6161

S1: 1.6111

S2: 1.6073

S3: 1.6011

Technical summary:

As long as resistance at 1.6263 and, more importantly, as long as important short-term resistance at 1.6348 protects the upside we should be expecting a move lower towards 1.6011, as the next downside target. Over the last 10 days we have seen a massive bullish divergence building, which is a warning, that the wave C decline of this expanded flat correction is losing momentum almost by the minute. However, to confirm this loss we need a break above 1.6263 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6348. A break above the later will confirm a new rally higher towards 1.7273 and even higher in the long term.

Trading recommendation:

Wait till the market confirms that wave C is over before buying EUR. Buy only a break above 1.6348, therefore place a buy order at 1.6350.

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#USDX Analysis for September 19, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has broken support and made new lows. Prices never managed to produce a bullish signal and our neutral stance protected us. On the contrary, not only prices reversed upwards but instead were pressured lower after heavy selling following Bernanke's speech. The Dollar Index has now broken important support levels and it has moved outside of the upward longer-term channel.

This is a negative signal for the longer-term trend of the Dollar as it opens the way to much lower support levels after breaking out and below the channel. Dollar weakness could lead the index towards 77.50 in the longer term or even 76. The trend is downward and will only change if prices manage to take back the 81 level and then break above 82.70.

In the short term, prices are expected to make an upward bounce as a counter move to the downward spike. We could expect prices to reach 80.70-80, but with current conditions I do not see a potential trend reversal at this time. Concluding we remain neutral as the volatility in this market does not provide any trading opportunity with a good risk/reward ratio.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 19, 2013 Trend News

Gold during Bernanke's speech was spiking. Our stop was hit and our short position was protected against the rising volatility. Prices reached 1,370 breaking out of the downward sloping channel and reaching the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement. The upward thrust looks like an impulsive wave and we now expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.

The decline from 1,433 is not a clear impulsive (complete 5 wave move) and that is why our first choice is to label it as a corrective wave. Taking into consideration that the move from 1,180 to 1,433 is also a three wave upward move, we can now say that we are in a larger degree corrective pattern, where wave A (1,180-1,433) and wave B (1,433-1,291) are over. We have most probably started an upward wave C now. This wave count will hold as long as prices stay above 1,291. Currently, prices made 5 waves up from 1,291 and we expect a pull back towards 1,330-40.

In the daily chart we observe that prices are back testing the broken trendline. The trend is now changing to upward one and is expected to move towards 1,500 as long as prices stay above 1,291. Confirmation will come if prices break above 1,433. Concluding, we remain neutral to bullish, waiting for a pull back to enter long wit 1,291 as stop.

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