EUR/USD daily strategy for July 10, 2013 - sell at 1.2906 Trend News

EUR/USD yesterday suffered a severe drop due to the intention of the senior ECB official to keep interest rates for an "extended period".

Observing our daily chart, notice that the euro came to the minimum of the 4th of April, which was also nearing a break. Now, this morning it is showing a strong rebound, which we believe could have a stop at 1.2906 fractal, in this area we recommend selling with goals in the 1.2745 fractal. The MACD indicator is in the oversold zone, which is more likely to continue an upward bounce.

If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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Dollar index maintains bullish trend, but near top (July 10, 2013) Trend News

Dollar index has broken above the resistance of 84.36. As we mentioned yesterday, for bulls to regain momentum, prices needed to break above 84.36. If that were to happen, a new high would be expected. And so it did. Prices moved sharply higher towards 84.75 and made a new high. Prices held support at 83.95 yesterday and confirmed our upward sloping channel support.

Selling pressures today push the index lower towards the support of the 34 candlestick MA at 84.40. We could see another test of the upward sloping channel support today at the 84.25-15 price level. The 84.12 low is important support for the short term up trend. Bears will need at least to break this level for any chance of an intermediate top to be increased. We still believe that bulls should be very cautious as the rally from 80.50 seems that is losing momentum and the start of a bigger degree correction is near.

Concluding, we prefer raising stops at 84 price level. We believe that if broken, prices will move towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 10th 2013 Trend News

Gold made a short-term top yesterday at 1,260. Prices pulled back as the rally that started from 1,208 was not strong enough to break above the recent high in one go. That is why prices got rejected and we saw a pullback towards 1,240. As mentioned yesterday, bulls should be worried if prices break below 1,238 and this did not happen yesterday. Prices found support at 1,240 and right on the upward sloping trend line. Current wave formation implies that we are still in wave C up at least (if not new upward move).

The downward move from 1,260 to 1,240 that was made yesterday is overlapping and that is why we believe it is a corrective pattern. Today, prices broke above the last high at 1,251. We believe that wave C upwards continues today with target above 1,266 and with optimum target at the 1,294 level where wave A is equal wave C. Stop for bulls is now the 1,243 price level.

The upward move from 1,208 has completed five waves 5. Usually, wave C ends above wave A when the correction has an upward momentum. In a more bullish scenario we could say that only wave 1 of C was completed at 1,260. This implies that wave C could reach even 1,350. But for this scenario we have to be patient and keep a close eye on the formation of price movements.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 10, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 130.11

R2: 129.69

R1: 129.35

Current Spot: 129.05

S1: 128.70

S2: 128.44

S3: 128.10

Technical overview:

As we said yesterday, the price action that we saw Monday was not supportive for an imminent decline. Rather it did flash that one more rally towards 130.59 was needed and that is what we saw. With a high at 130.56 (just 3 small pips below our target), we have seen a turnaround to the downside again. Of the ongoing c-wave we have now seen wave i and ii. Wave ii was an expanded flat correction and after an expanded flat correction we should expect an extended impulsive wave to follow, which in this case means a decline to at least 126.57 and possibly lower. In short term we expect minor resistance at 129.35 will be able to protect the upside, but if we do see a break above 129.35 we are likely to see a continuation higher towards 129.61 before the next powerful decline is seen towards 126.57.

Trading recommendation:

Our break-even stop at 130.25 was hit. However, we sold EUR again at 130.50 and will move our stop lower to 130.60. If you are not short EUR already, then sell close to 129.61 with the same stop at 130.60.

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