Weekly forecast and an intraday analysis of EUR/JPY for August 05-08, 2014 Trend News

The pair took support at 136.36 and managed to bounce back towards the 50WSma. The pair has weekly resistance at 138.32 levels. The pair is trading near the resistance zone at 138-138.32 levels. On the down side, it has support at 136.20. Once it breaks the 136.20-136 level, the panic will be triggered for the short term towards 134, 132.30 and 131.20 levels. A weekly close above 138.32, the bulls will regain the strength to make 139.25 and 140 levels. The pair was rejected at the broken symmetric triangle, support became resistance. It held the support at 20DSma 137.40.

Weekly

Resistance: 138.32, 139.25, 140.

Support: 137.40, 136.60, 136.36.

A day close above 138.22, the weekly outlook turns positive.

A weekly close above 138.32, the monthly outlook turns positive.

Intraday cmp 137.63

The pair is facing resistance at 21hrSma 137.71. It made a high at 137.71 (6hr high) and support at 137.61 (6hr low). If it hits 137.61, it will take support at 137.40 (35hr Sma). We recommend to sell only below 137.40 for 137.14-137.0, 136.90, 136.75 and 136.60 levels.

Support: 137.60, 137.40, 137.10.

Resistance: 137.71, 138.05, 138.15.

Sell only below 137.40.

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Short-term forecast of Gold for August 05, 2014 Trend News

GOLD

The yellow metal is under pressure, after the comeback of the US dollar and traders are very optimistic regarding the US economy. Bets are raised against the interest rate hike. All these factors put gold under pressure. The metal is trading at a 6-week low. It has been making lower lows and lower highs in the weekly chart for 3 weeks. The 50WSma is acting as strong weekly resistance at $1,296 levels. Until the metal trades below this, the weekly trend looks down with the near support at $1,280, $1,275.70, and $1,272-$1,270. On the weekly basis, the metal is trading between $1,297-$1,280 levels. If it hits the support at $1,280, it can extend its fall up to $1,272-$1,270 levels and on the north side, if it breaches the resistance, it can gain up to $1,300, $1,305 and $1,310 levels. We expect the correction will complete when it comes near $1,272-$1,270 levels.

Weekly

Resistance: $1,297, $1,305, $1,311

Support: $1,285, $1,280, $1,272-$1,270

If the metal hits and closes below the $1,240-$1,231 levels, the bears may take the pair towards a new low by the end of this year. Until the metal holds $1,240-$1,231 on a weekly closing basis, the new high will be possible in the rest of the year.

Intraday cmp $1,289

The metal is trading below the 21hrSma, 34hrSma and 12ema. But the 200DSma in the daily chart, $1,285 support level gave enough support to hold in yesterday's session. For an hourly trading basis, we recommend to buy above $1,290 for targets at $1,294, and $1,296.50.

Strong hourly momentum will take place above $1,294 and weekly above $1,297

Support: $1,285, $1,280, $1,272

Resistance: $1,290, $1,294, $1,297

Hourly trade- buy above $1,290

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 05, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Services PMI, Spanish Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, Final Services PMI, Retail Sales m/m. The US will release economic data too such as the Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3485.

Strong Resistance:1.3477.

Original Resistance: 1.3464.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3451.

Target Inner Area: 1.3419.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3387.

Original Support: 1.3374.

Strong Support: 1.3361.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3353. Disclaimer:
Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 05, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction and the US will release some economic data such as Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.13.

Resistance. 2: 103.93.

Resistance. 1: 102.72.

Support. 1: 102.49.

Support. 2: 102.29.

Support. 3: 102.08.


Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX had no major changes during yesterday's session, so this instrument remains strong in the bullish trend, below the resistance level of 81.50. Probably, the corrective movements could extend to the support level of 81.00, but bullish outlook still remains alive in the USDX. The MACD indicator remains in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has moved in a range below the bullish trend line near the 81.55 level. If the USDX does make a breakout at the support level of 81.02, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.60, where the 200 SMA is located. For now, the MACD indicator remains in negative territory.

H1 chart: The USDX continues to find resistance at 81.40, but there are still chances that the USDX will try a breakout on the resistance level of 81.40 to move up to the level of 81.58, because the USDX is still above the 200-day moving average in this chart. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 81.40, take profit is at 81.58, and stop loss is at 81.21.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 05, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD has made a slight rebound at the level of 1.6851, where this pair formed a fractal. This move could be the confirmation of the formation of a higher low pattern in favor of the bearish trend. The GBP/USD has been in a strong bearish bias, so it is likely that this pair will start making longer corrective movements. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: This pair has made a rebound on the support level of 1.6820, so it is very likely that the GBP/USD will attempt to climb to the resistance level of 1.6900. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, the next target would be the level of 1.6995, where the 200 SMA is located. MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The GBP/USD is conducting a breakout at the level of 1.6850 as the pair is intending to go up to the resistance level of 1.6900, which is close to the 200 SMA. On the other hand, if the GBPUSD makes a pullback at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the support level of 1.6800.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6800, take profit is at 1.6750, and stop loss is at 1.6850.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 81.31 versus 81.46 early Friday) after smaller-than-expected 209,000 increase in U.S. July non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +230,000) and higher-than-expected unemployment rate of 6.2% (versus forecast 6.1%), surprise 1.8% drop in U.S. June construction spending (versus forecast for +0.4% rise), University of Michigan final July sentiment index coming in at 81.8 (versus forecast 81.9). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese export sales and selling of yen crosses amid increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 0.47% to 17.03, S&P 500 fell 0.29% Friday to close at 1,925.15). But USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 57.1 in July from 55.3 in June (versus forecast 56.0), while the employment sub-index jumped from 52.8 to 58.2. USD/JPY losses are also tempered by the demand from Japanese importers.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but stochastics is bearish in the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 102.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 102.15. The pivot point stands at 102.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103 and the second target at 103.40.

Resistance levels:

103

103.40

103.75

Support levels:

102.30

102.15

101.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker USD sentiment. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics is turned bearish in the overbought zone.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9035. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9010. The pivot point stands at 0.9080. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9095 and the second target at 0.9110.

Resistance levels:

0.9095

0.9110

0.9130



Support levels:

0.9035

0.9010

0.8975

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a two-month low at 0.8459 on Friday. It is supported by the weaker USD sentiment, NZD-USD interest differential and Kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD upside is limited by the Kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid increasing investor risk aversion and weak dairy prices. The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining, but bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Friday, stochastics is turned bullish to the oversold zone.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8560 and the second target at 0.8585. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8430. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.84. The pivot point is at 0.8460.

Resistance levels:

0.8560

0.8585

0.8620

Support levels:

0.8430

0.84

0.8375

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate in lower range. It is undermined by the increasing risk aversion and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers. The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics is in a bullish mode, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.90. The pivot point stands at 172.95. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 173.35 and the second target at 173.75.

Resistance levels:

173.35

173.75

174.20



Support levels:
172.3

171.90

171.65

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for August 4-8, 2014 Trend News

Technical levels of the GBP/USD pair :

General idea about the pivot point :

• Resistance 3 and support 3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. Pivot lines work well in the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be located between the resistance 1 and support 1 lines. Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue moving. If the breaking news released may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and even reach resistance 2 and resistance 3 or support 2 and support 3. If the trend breaks resistance or support through, it is likely to result in a significant price movement, it is also referred to as breakout.


• It should be noted that if there is no significant news to influence, the market price will be moving from pivot point to resistance 1 or support 1. But if there is significant news, the market price may go straight through resistance 1 or support 1 and reach resistance 2 or support 2 and even resistance 3 or support 3.

Forecast :

• According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still been moving between 1.6805 and 1.6880. The level of 1.6878 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. So, sell below 1.6878 in the short term with the first target of 1.6812 in order to test the double bottom, it might resume to 1.6756 (support 1) if the trend will be able to break the double bottom at 1.6812. The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be rather profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.6905.

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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for August 4-8, 2014 Trend News

Technical levels of the EUR/USD pair:

Forecast and review :

• The double top of EUR/USD pair will set at the level of 1.3443 and the double bottom is going to be set at the 1.3365 level. It should be noted that the last range was very small around 80 pips only. But we expect a range of 170 - 200 pips this week.


• The price had only hit support 1 last week.


• The major support is going to set at 1.3380 on August 4, 2014. And the resistance had already set at the price of 1.3464.


• So, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.3380 and 1.3443.


• The level of 1.3412 is representing the weekly pivot point. Therefore, it will be very useful to buy above the price of 1.3412 in the short term with the first target at 1.3440. Moreover, if the trend is able to break the double top at 1.3443, then it might resume to 1.3464.

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#USDX Technical analysis for August 4, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has most probably made a short-term top and is pulling back downwards. This downward correction is most probably a move that should be met with buying pressures near 81 to test back the previous break out of the area.

The Dollar index is inside the upward sloping trend channel. I expect the pull back to reach maximum the 38% retracement near 81 and touch the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. I believe this is just a pull back and that the highs are not in yet. The 81.56 high is only a short-term high as I expect the Dollar index to break above this level in the near future. I expect the Dollar index to find support at 81. This back test of the break out area is important, so that bulls will get re-energised.

The daily chart shows how price is still inside the upward sloping channel. Daily support is found at 81.15 and at the previous high at 81. I do not expect the Dollar index to break below 81. I expect the Dollar index to back test the break out level in order to confirm the break out and resume its upward trend.

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EUR/NZD analysis for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.5825 in a volume below average. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe weak demand in an average volume, which is a sign that buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential end of a bullish corrective phase and I got Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.5815 (successfully tested). According to the 1H timeframe, we can observe that strong supply in an ultra high volume has entered the market. So, be careful with buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5817

R2: 1.5840

R3: 1.5877

Support levels:

S1: 1.5742

S2: 1.5719

S3: 1.5681

Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair and watch for selling opportunities after retracement.

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Gold Technical analysis for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Gold price has made a low at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from $1,240 to $1,345. The form of the downward move from the highs is a bullish wedge. This pattern may cancel our longer-term bearish view that wave E is complete or it may cancel even the scenario that we are in a wave 4 correction.

Gold price made 5 waves up from $1,240 to $1,345. The pull back from $1,345 to the 61.8% retracement is corrective. The bullish wedge if broken upwards could signal an important trend change. Important resistance levels are found at $1,295 and $1,305. If Gold price breaks above the Ichimoku cloud resistance, then we should expect it to rise above $1,313 of even $1,326. Price bounced off the 61.8% retracement and this puts our longer-term preferred bearish scenario in danger.

Price has broken above the daily Ichimoku cloud once again. This is a good sign for bulls. The decline from $1,346 may only be wave B and the rise from $1,240 to $1,346 wave A. So, now the market might be preparing for wave C of wave E of wave 4 towards $1,360. This scenario will increase its chances of success if price breaks above $1,313. If Gold price gets rejected at $1,295 and pulls back down towards $1,280, then we will have to wait to see how it reacts near the important support at $1,270. If wave E is not already complete, we should expect a bounce towards $1,350-60.

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Gold analysis for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,280.21 in a volume just above the average according to the daily timeframe. As you can see from the chart, our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% completed successfully, so selling at this stage looks risky. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,272.00. If the price breaks the level of 1,281.00 (our Fibonacci retracement 61.8%), we may see more downward movement. Anyway, we can observe strong demand and buying climax according to the 4H timeframe, which is a sign that selling looks risky at this stage.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,295.33

R2: 1,295.63

R3: 1,296.13

Support levels:

S1: 1,294.33

S2: 1,294.03

S3: 1,293.53

Trading recommendations: Be careful with selling Gold at this stage since Fibonacci retracement 61.8% is on the test.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.5848

R2: 1.5825

R1: 1.5790

Current spot: 1.5782

S1: 1.5752

S2: 1.5792

S3: 1.5705

Technical summary:

We saw an unexpected rejection from 1.5812, which indicates that a slightly bigger correction towards 1.5705 is needed. However, once this correction is over, we should renew strength higher through 1.5829 for a move towards 1.6205 and higher in a longer term.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.5750 was hit for a nice profit. We will buy EUR again at 1.5710 with stop placed at 1.5600.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Overview

As it was expected last week, we should make the decision after breaking the Support area of 172.40 and closing 4H below. As shown on the H4 chart, the pair failed to break this Support area and has bounced from it again to reverse its bearish move taking an upward movement. Currently, it is approaching the Resistance level of 173.00 to retest it. Given that, the pair continues its bullish move and manages to close 4H above this Resistance level. It gives us a new opportunity for Buy signals above this Resistance level with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 173.50 then 173.75 as a second target. But as long as the pair trades below the Resistance level of 173.00, this cancels the bullish move scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (173.75), R2 (173.50), R1 (173.00), S1 (172.40), S2 (169.90), S3 (169.50).

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 138.44

R2: 138.11

R1: 138.11

Current spot: 137.88

S1: 137.72

S2: 137.50

S3: 137.25

Technical summary:

We saw a rally to 138.00, just below the ideal target of 138.05, but that should be enough to achieve the target. Now, we will be looking for a break below support at 137.72 and more importantly below support at 137.50. That will confirm that red wave iv ended at 138.00 and red wave v lower towards 135.49 is developing. That said, as long as support at 137.50 protects the downside we could still see one final spike to 138.05, but we will not bet on that outcome.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 138.00 with stop placed at 138.25. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 138.00 or upon a break below 137.72 with the same stop at 138.25.

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Daily analysis of Silver for August 04, 2014 Trend News

Overview

In the today's H4 chart, silver is still stabilizing above the Support level of 20.20 after it could not break it last week. Currently, it is bouncing from it towards the Resistance level of 20.50. So, we still suggest waiting for closing above the next Resistance level in case of bouncing from the Support level to give us a new opportunity for more buy signals with the first target few pips below the Resistance level of 20.70. After breaking this Resistance level, silver would open the way towards the Resistance level of 21.00, which means more bullish signals, but as long as the metal trades below the Resistance level of 20.50, this cancels the bullish scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (21.00), R2 (20.70), R1 (20.50), S1 (20.20), S2 (20.00), S3(19.75)

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for August 4, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 04/08/2014 08:40 CET

The five waves impulsive development looks completed with the top for red wave 5 at the level of 1.0943. From that high, a possible five wave impulsive black wave i to the downside can be labeled as well. This would mean the pair is in the corrective structure now that can not break out above the wave i high. More downside wave progression is anticipated if the level of 1.0943 is not violated, as the pair already has broken out of the golden channel. Multiple bearish divergence supports this view.

Support/Resistance:

1.0991 - WR1

1.0943 - Wave 2 High

1.0892 - Weekly Pivot

1.0876 - Intraday Support

1.0842 - WS1

1.0821 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should consider opening short orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 1.0943 and TP at the level of 1.0876 with a possible downside extension.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for August 4, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 04/08/2014 08:20 CET

The orange target zone has been missed by mere 2 pips and currently the high at the level of 138.00 is the top for the wave (c) of wave 2 green. The next anticipated wave development should be impulsive wave progression to the downside and the first clue comes with the level of weekly pivot breakout. Secondary confirmation comes with the technical support at the level of 137.32 breakout. In that case the market will enter the bearish zone and more lower prices are expected.

Support/Resistance:

138.44 - WR1

138.00 - Wave 2 High | Intraday Resistance|

137.54 - Weekly Pivot

137.49 - 137.32 - Technical Resistance Zone

137.04 - WS1

136.35 - Wave 1 Low

136.13 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders and swing traders should consider opening short orders from current market levels with SL above the level of 138.10 and TP at the level of 137.32 with a possible downside extension.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 4, 2014 Trend News

Since the USD/CAD pair failed to show enough bullish momentum above 1.1200 during the last visit on March 20, the pair has been downtrending within the depicted bearish channel, which managed to push towards the price zone between 1.0910-1.0850 (50-61.8% Fibonacci levels on the daily chart) where a prominent congestion zone was established.

As depicted on the chart, bullish rejection was expressed at retesting of the lower limit of the bearish channel around 1.0630 (It's the origin of the previous bullish impulse initiated in December 2013 as well).

A valid BUY entry was suggested. Expected targets got visited around 1.0750 and 1.0820.

The USD/CAD pair had a strong resistance zone located between 1.0830 (61.8% Fibonacci Level) and 1.0945 ( 50% Fibonacci Level of the same bearish swing ).

The price zone around 1.0940 (50% Fibonacci Level ) remains the nearest Intraday resistance level that comes to meet the pair.

Bearish rejection may be anticipated at retesting especially after such a long bullish rally that originated off 1.0650 and 1.0710. However, daily closure above which enables the bulls to shoot towards 1.1050 initially.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.0775 remains the nearest support to meet the pair where a valid BUY entry may be taken with Stop Loss below 1.0715.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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