Fundamental analysis of EUR/USD for April 07, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD

The euro zone inflation hit its lowest level since November 2009 in March, a shocking drop that raised expectations the European Central Bank will take radical action to stop the threat of deflation in the currency bloc.The inflation data trend in the euro zone over the past few years has suggested that the euro zone is walking towards the path of the lost decade of Japan. The euro zone is trending towards a spiraling deflationary environment such as that of Japan's despite its previous attempt to money-print to a certain extent. On the other hand, the US dollar pulled back from a 1-month high level due to weak jobs data printed Friday. Traders eye Wednesday's important event, FOMC meeting minutes.

Technical view-

For long run perspective, the pair is in a long trend up move for targets at 1.44 levels. The fresh target will be possible only once the pair closes above the 1.3967 level. On the down side, below 1.3673, the pair will fall to 1.3560 and 1.3450-1.3477 in the short term.

Weekly basis - April 07-11

On a weekly basis, the level between 1.3677-1.3673 is the crucial level. Once the pair breaks and closes below the 1.3677 level, the pair will fall to 1.3560 this week or next one. In the short term, the pair has been in a down trend from 1.396 levels and the pair broke the 9-month ascending trend line. In Asia, the pair is trading below the broken trend line. It is trading below the short-term moving averages. The bearish view still keeps moving in the daily chart.

On the down side, the pair has its support at 1.3643, 1.3585, 1.3562, and 1.3550 (200EMA). On the up side, the pair is facing strong resistance at 1.3735 (50SMA). Until the pair closes above the 50SMA, sell flavor gives a good money. In Friday's trading session, the pair took the support at the 23.6 fib level. Today's trading pattern will give a clue for coming short-term trading strategy. We recommended selling at 1.38 levels with sl 1.396 on March 20, 2014. The level between 1.3666-1.3643 is an open target, but it met 1.3673 Friday, just 9 pips away from our target. The RSI is still favoring sell side. On the up side, once the pair closes a day above the 1.3735 (50SMA) level, it will pull back to 1.3760, 1.3772, and 1.3820 levels.

Intraday-

In the H4 chart, the pair is facing resistance at 1.3734 (21EMA). For 2-day trading perspective, we expect the pair to pull up to 1.376-1.377 levels immediately and 1.3810 later. The hourly momentum indicators are giving a buy signal. It's a complete buy at current levels or its a value buy if any dip comes between 1.3666-1.364.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 07, 2014 Trend News

This week, traders eye Tuesday's UK Industrial production m/m, Wednesday's US FOMC meeting minutes and Thursday's BOE Interest rate desicion. These economic events lay the short-term path of this pair. The pair has been in a downward for last 6 trading sessions. As of now, the pair is trading at 1.6574 in Asia. The pair is facing strong resistance level at 1.6586 (50SMA) levels. The pair is in bearish hand, until it crosses and close above the 50SMA level for a day. On the down side, if the pair breaks the purple line, it will fall to 1.6465 (March 24 low). Once this level is broken, bears will sing their song up to 1.6252 with intermediate supports. The next strong support levels exist between 1.6252-1.6214. The long-term uptrend will be terminated once the pair closes below 1.614 (200EMA).

Intraday-

The pair is in a complete down trend, trading below the all daily moving averages. It is not good to enter longs until the pair crosses the 1.6595 (200EMA) marked with a yellow line. Risky traders can enter longs only above the 200EMA level, with targets at 1.66 and 1.6611. Safe traders, buy above the 1.6611 levels for targets 1.6660. On the down side, if the pair does not cross the yellow line, it will fall to the downside purple line at 1.6550, below this, to 1.65-1.6480 and 1.6465 levels. Sell on rallies until the pair crosses the 1.6611 level, for sellers.

Adopt one strategy and trade safely.

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Weekly and intraday forecast for USD/JPY for April 07, 2014 Trend News

USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy decision on Monday . It's widely expected that the central bank will increase its stimulus measures due to the perceived economic slowdown from the government's recent sales tax increase. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe raised the tax for the first time since 1997 to curb Japan’s runaway public debt, the biggest in the industrial world. Japan raised its sales tax to 8% from 5% on April 1 after Mr. Abe had made a final decision to do so last autumn.The government plans to raise the tax further to 10% in October 2015, with Mr. Abe expected to give a final go-ahead later this year. Recent economic data have been worrisome. Japan’s gross domestic product was weaker-than-expected, driven in part by softness in consumer spending and business expenditures. The government pushed through a 5.5 trillion yen supplementary budget in February, and some economists expect the Bank of Japan to introduce more monetary easing.

Technical view

Weekly forecast-

USD/JPY is trading at 103.33 in Asia. After 2-month consolidation, the pair gave a break out at 103 levels. It made a high on Friday's session at 104.11. The pair is trading near the broken upper trend line. IF the pair closes below the purple line, the bear bells will be in the chart, it can fall to 102.4 (50 SMA). In case of a day close below the 50SMA, more bearish views will be generated for 101.7 and 100.75 levels. The major support zone is held between 100.75 and 100 levels. If it closes below 100 levels, we will re-analyze the chart. Fresh up move will take place once the pair crosses Friday's high at the 104.11 level.

On the up side, the levels of 104.84, 105.44, and 106.5 are the open targets with sl 100.75 on a closing basis. The level of 102.0 is the weekly support for April 07-11 with intermediate supports at 102.83, 102.6, and 102.40 levels. Break below the level of 102 only, the pair looks weak for 100.6 and 99 levels.

Buy above 104.11 or wait for a dip at 102, 50sma.

Intraday-

On an intraday basis, the pair is trading in a bearish mode. The pair was sold off in Friday's trading session. Currently, the pair is facing strong resistance at 103.33, 40EMA in H4 chart. If a candle closes above the 40EMA, the pair will fly up to 103.60 and 103.73 levels. The pair will gain more strength once it crosses above the level of 103.73. On the down side, there is a crucial level between 103.11 and 103. Breaks below this, 102.66 is the strong support for today. RSI is not in a comfortable zone for buyers. Whereas stochastics is giving a buy signal. We expect a pullback in the next couple of hours towards the resistance zone between 103.58-103.73 levels.

On the down side, if the pair breaks the level of 102.66, bears will take the pair towards 102, 101.7, and 101.2 levels. On the up side, if the pair crosses the 103.73 levels, it will move up to 104.11 and 104.80 levels intraday and BTST.

Buy above 103.73, or wait for a dip, buy between 103.04 and 102.60.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 07, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as German Industrial Production m/m, Sentix Investor Confidence. The US will release the economic data too such as the US-Consumer Credit m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3770.

Strong Resistance:1.3761.

Original Resistance: 1.3748.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3735.

Target Inner Area: 1.3702.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3669.

Original Support: 1.3656.

Strong Support: 1.3643.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3634.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3656 and 1.3748. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3643 and by 1.3761 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3634 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3770 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3669 and at 1.3735, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3702.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 07, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the Leading Indicators and the US will release some economic data such as US-Consumer Credit m/m. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low volatility during the US session.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 103.77.

Resistance. 2: 103.57.

Resistance. 1: 103.35.

Support. 1: 103.11.

Support. 2: 102.91.

Support. 3: 102.70.

DESCRIPTION:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (102.70) and resistance 3 (103.77). Normally, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForex Group

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



For detail explanation and best discovery on market trends you may visit via Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 07, 2014 . Thanks for your support on Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 07, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 7, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: In spite of the adamancy of EUR, this pair remains in bear market. Yes, the outlook is bearish and the market is expected to continue going lower this week. The support line at 1.3700 has been challenged vigorously and it is almost given away to the bears. The main target for this week is at the support line of 1.3600.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF tested the resistance level at 0.8950 last week. It would test that resistance level again this week. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and thus it is normal to expect that, with an increase in the buying pressure, the price would go further upwards.

GBP/USD: Last week, the Cable was largely bearish. This constant inability to trend higher has already resulted in a bearish signal in the chart. One may want to seek short trades as the price is poised to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6550. Should that accumulation territory be breached to the downside, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.6500.

USD/JPY: There has been a sharp reversal on the USD/JPY, though the long-term bias is bullish. From the supply level at 104.00, the price dropped by over 80 pips, closing at 103.24 on Friday (April 4, 2014). For the bullish bias to continue to make sense, the reversal must be contained at the demand level of 103.00.

EUR/JPY: The weakness of EUR is affecting the movement of the cross – which is showing some sign of weakness. The price must stay above the demand zone at 141.00. Otherwise, the tide would turn southward.

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Daily analysis of USDX for April 07, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has found resistance at the 80.62 level and now the USDX is forming a bullish pattern. If the USDX manages to consolidate above this level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 81.00, which is located above the 200 SMA. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a bearish rebound at current levels, it would be expected to fall to the level of 80.11. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: The USDX is keeping moving in a low range above the support level of 80.35. If the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.58, it's expected to rise to the level of 81.32. Furthermore, if the USDX consolidation is accomplished below support level of 80.35, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.15. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H1 chart: The USDX has made a bearish rebound in the resistance level of 80.59. If the USDX does make a breakout in the support level of 80.35, it's expected to fall to the level of 80.15, which would jeopardize the current bullish trend as the USDX would approach the 200 SMA. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.59, take profit is at 80.73, and stop loss is at 80.44.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for April 07, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: This pair continues to fall approaching the bullish trend line near the support level of 1.6540. If GBP/USD manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6447. On the other hand, if this pair makes a bullish rebound at current levels, the bullish bias could be strengthened. The MACD indicator is entering negative territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.6583, so it is very likely that this pair fall to the support level of 1.6516. If the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6592, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6644, which would be a bullish consolidation. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair is still moving in low range below the 200 SMA. For now, the GBP/USD is trying to stay below the support level of 1.6578. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.6544. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6507. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.6544, take profit is at 1.6507, and stop loss is at 1.6580.

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