#USDX Analysis for September 13, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has found support at the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement or 81.50. Prices have broken out of the downward sloping trendline but not higher from the previous high at 81.97. We remain neutral as we need to see more evidence that the trend has reversed. This downward corrective wave is very possible to have ended near the 61,8% retracement. That is why we are ready to enter long if prices break above the last high at 81.74 with 81.35 stop and 82 as the first target.

The daily chart below still shows that the index remains close to its longer-term support. The 80.70-81 price range is very important support and should not break if bulls want to see prices challenge the previous high near 85. Our view remains neutral but we feel there are rising posibilities of a trend reversal from this price level.

The longer-term upward sloping channel as shown above supports our view that we should anticipate an upward move if the lower boundaries of the channel are held. The longer prices trade close to the lower boundaries of a channel, the sharper the upward move towards the upper boundaries will be. Concluding we remain neutral and slightly bullish expecting more signals that the trend will be reversing upwards.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 13, 2013 Trend News

Gold remained yesterday below the 1,668 resistance which was our line in the sand for our bearish view. Prices broke below the support level of 1,330 and then reached our next target of 1,307 making a new low at 1,304. The daily chart clearly portreys the downward trend and the fact that even in the daily chart, the pattern looks impulsive, strengthens the bearish scenario.

The decline is impulsive and we believe that there is more downside. Critical price level for the bearish scenario that is shown in the chart below, is the 1,355-60 level. If prices manage to break above that price level, then our bearish scenario according Elliott wave count will be canceled. Our favorite Elliott wave count is shown in the chart below.

Still inside the downward sloping channel, we are most probably inside the extension of wave (3) of the 3 downside. The trend is clearly down, resistance is found for the short term at 1,325-30 and this is where one could try to sell with a 1,355 stop. We believe that it is time for a small upward bounce, but we cannot cancel the possibility that this free fall continues towards 1,270.

Concluding we remain bearish. Important trend reversal could be confirmed at 1,355-60 which is the major resistance now. Buying near 1,300 with a 1,270 stop could be justified, but bulls will need to break resistance for this bounce to have a meaning. Otherwise, be ready to sell again if prices reach 1,340-50.

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Wave analysis of the GBP/USD pair for September 13, 2013 Trend News

Wave analysis:

The area of 1.5835-1.5850 provided rather strong resistance for the further rise of the GBP/USD pair. As a result, wave 3 in terms of uptrend starting from the low of August 28, has a rather completed form. Thus, taking into account the fact that the indicators are considerably overbought, we expect further reverse of the pair to the level of figure 58 or even 50 points lower. At the same time dynamics in terms of development of the current uptrend may allow the pair to resume the growth, thus the whole upward channel takes more complex form and wave structure will demand for corresponding corrections.

Targets for down wave:

1.5750 – 23.6% of Fibonacci

1.5695 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

Targets for up wave:

1.5835 – 300.0% of Fibonacci

Summary and trading recommendations:

The British pound decided to complicate the inner wave structure of the uptrend channel. If this assumption is correct, then the rise of the quotes will continue with targets placed near the level 1.5835 and higher to the figure 59. In terms of correctional down wave the decline of the quotes may start with targets placed near the levels of 1.5750 and 1.5695, which is corresponding to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. From the current positions the currency pair may start formation of new downward wave. MACD divergence points the readiness of the instrument for the corrective wave. Unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.5835 may lead to the reverse of the quotes from the reached highs.

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