Technical Analysis on USDX for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

After a stellar up move, the US dollar index is going to close in red candlestick on a weekly basis for the first time. This view would erase in case the price closes above 86.67 but chances are very remote. The US dollar has paused its rally after 11 consecutive weeks. The index is trading below the previous month high 86.22. During yesterday's session, the pair broke below the 20Dsma on an intraday basis; however, at the end of the day, it successfully closed above 20Dsma meaning that bulls are using dip to accumulate. The index has minor resistance above the level of 85.70. The price is likely to move up to 85.90, 86.10 and 86.22. In case the bulls close this week above 86.22, we can see another bull rally in the coming weeks. We recommend fresh buying above 85.62 levels. On the bearish front, if the price closes below 20Dsma, the near term weakness is seen to increase.

For an intraday view, the US dollar index closed above 12ema. In yesterday's session, the 21hrsma and descending trend line acted as strong resistance in the h4 chart. Risky traders can start buying above 85.63 and safe traders can start buying above 85.83 34hrsma. For bears, it seems a good opportunity to selling below 85.58 target 85.40, 85.22,85.10 and 84.95 levels.

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Short-term forecast for crude oil (October 10, 2014) Market Analysis Review

The US data pushed the oil price to $84. The oil prices are verging on symmetric triangle in the weekly and monthly chart. In case the price closes below the bottom of the triangle or the level of 84, the new large bearish wave would generate. Earlier, we recommended to sell on every rise in September 05, 2014 article for a down side target 88,81-80 levels recorded at 94.50 levels. A break below 84.06 the prices would extend its fall to 83.65, 82.10 in the near term. We recommend again to sell on every up move or sell below 84.0. The long term view indicates strong bearish targets aiming for 77.00 June 2012 low, 71.50 multi month low and 69.50 200Msma.

Trade-

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 10, 2014 Market Analysis Review

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has formed a fractal at the resistance level of 1.6240, where the pair performed a pullback as a corrective move. The GBP/USD pair might be forming a bullish pattern to attempt a breakout at that level, although the bearish trend line at the 1.6160 level is strong resistance for this pair. Probably, during today's session, GBP/USD could extend its fall to the support level of 1.6051. The MACD indicator is entering overbought area.

H4chart's resistance levels: 1.6247 – 1.6435

H4 chart's support levels: 1.6051 - 1.6004

The GBP/USD pair found resistance at 1.6216 level. So far, this pair has been trying to form a bearish pattern below the 200 SMA in the hourly chart. If the GBP/USD succeeds in extending its drop below the support level of 1.6117, it would be expected to fall to 1.6075 level in the short term.

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6170 – 1.6216

H1 chart's support levels: 1.6117 – 1.6075

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6170, take profit is at 1.6216, and stop loss is at 1.6124.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for October 09, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

In the 4H chart, today's closing below the resistance level of 175.00 gives the price an opportunity for a new bearish trend. As shown here, currently, the price may reverse its bullish trend of last week to start its bearish move by breaking the support level of 174.40 and closing below it. In that case, we may get another opportunity for more sell signals. It would open the way towards 173.70 as the first target, and then the price should test the support level to continue its bearish move. But as long as the price stabilizes above the support level of 174.40, it cancels the first scenario.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (176.75), R2 (176.00), R1 (175.00), S1 (174.40), S2 (173.70), S3 (173.30).

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been downtrending below the depicted downtrend line.

Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.

The price level of 1.6140 constituted a weekly support level that paused the bearish movement on September 9 when the bears quickly visited price level of 1.6060.

Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as anticipated.

This week, the same scenario is taking place. The bulls are pushing towards the downtrend line as well as previous prominent bottom on the weekly chart (price zone of 1.6225-1.6250).

The market offered a valid SELL opportunity around 1.6460 during last week's consolidations. Bearish targets were located around 1.6160, 1.6080 then 1.5890 ( ALL target levels already got visited ).

Trading recommendations:

Based on the previous data, SELL positions are preferred as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous broken bottom ).

The stop loss to be placed above 1.6320. Price levels of 1.6080 and 1.5890 are initial targets.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

Two months ago, the ongoing bearish swing (initiated in March 2014) was hindered at the price level of 1.0620. This price level corresponded to the lower limit of the channel as well as the backside of a steeper bearish one.

In August, bullish breakout off the movement channel took place. This enabled a bullish Flag pattern to be established. Bullish targets were successfully hit, including price level of 1.1230.

Strong bullish momentum has been expressed for a couple of weeks. Note that breaching price zone of 1.1230-1.1260 and fixation above it triggers new bullish swing.

On the other hand, a break below 1.1100-1.1070 is more likely to happen. This indicates that the bearish correction will extend further towards 1.0980-1.0950 where a key-support zone is depicted on the chart (the lower limit of the bullish channel and 50% Fibonacci level).

Recommendations:

The price zone of 1.1250-1.1276 corresponded to previous significant tops on the daily chart. Extensive bearish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

Risky traders can take a SELL entry around 1.1250-1.1275. Bearish targets are located at 1.1080 and 1.0990.

Then, the price zone of 1.0980-1.0950 should be watched for another LONG position to make use of the ongoing bullish trend.

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Gold : analysis for October 09, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,233.14. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance level and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,244.80 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,283.00. According to the daily chart, we can observe demand in a volume below above the average. According to previous price action, we got resistance level at the price of 1,230.00 and 1,234.00 (swing high like resistance). If the price breaks the level of 1,234.00 in a high volume, we may see testing the level of 1,244.00. Anyway, we can observe weak demand and neutral bar according to the 4h timeframe, we bearish correctiion is possible. Do not forget, our mid term Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,193.00 held successful, and that made gold start bullish corrective phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,219.28

R2: 1,.223.86

R3: 1,231.27

Support levels

S1: 1,204.46

S2: 1,199.88

S3: 1,192.47

Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance levels

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 09, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in lower range.It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.32 versus 85.66 early Wednesday) on dovish minutes of FOMC Sept. 16-17 meeting which showed the Federal Reserve was in no rush to raise interest rates and was concerned that the recent strength of the dollar could hurt U.S. exports and growth as well as putting downward pressure on already low levels of inflation. USD/CHF is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.318% versus 2.341% late Tuesday) and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.

Technical comments:
Daily chart is negative-biased as stochastics is falling from overbought zone, MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9460. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9420. The pivot point stands at 0.9550. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9650.

Resistance levels:

0.96

0.9650

0.9685



Support levels:

0.9460

0.9420

0.9380

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 09, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in higher range.It is Supported by egative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.32 versus 85.66 early Wednesday) on dovish minutes of FOMC Sept. 16-17 meeting which showed the Federal Reserve was in no rush to raise interest rates and was concerned that the recent strength of the dollar could hurt U.S. exports and growth as well as putting downward pressure on already low levels of inflation. NZD/USD is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.318% versus 2.341% late Tuesday) and Japan exporter sales. There is also Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY and soft EUR/NZD crosses amid positive risk sentiment and Kiwi demand on retreating AUD/NZD cross. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the weak dairy prices and threat of central bank intervention to weaken the NZD.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is rising from oversold zone, MACD is staged bullish crossover against its exponential moving average.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8005 and the second target at 0.8095. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7830. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7785. The pivot point is at 0.7785.

Resistance levels:

0.8005

0.8095

0.8125



Support levels:

0.7830

0.7785

0.7765

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 09, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in lower range.It is supported by the buoyant EUR/USD and demand from Japan importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the soft USD/JPY undertone and Japan exporter sales and by sterling sales on buoyant EUR/GBP cross.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold zone, bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 173.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 173.45. The pivot point stands at 175. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 175.45 and the second target at 176.

Resistance levels:

175.45

176

176.65

Support levels:

173.75

173.45

172.95

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview :

• The resistance of AUD/USD pair has set at the price of 0.8934 and the support at the 0.8820 price. So, according to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is going to move between the resistance and the support in coming days. As a rule, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, we expect a range about 114 pips this week. Accordingly, if the trend fails to close below the level of 0.8820, then it will be a good opportunity to buy above 0.8825 with the first target at 0.8890, then it will be continued straight towards 0.8935. Notwithstanding, the stop loss should always be taken in account because it should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Consequently, the best location to set your stop loss should be placed below the level of 0.8780.

Notes :

• The risk of 76 pips must make a profit of 114 pips.


• In the H1 chart, the value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 0.9022.


• The volatility: 259.71. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had huge volatility.


• The support will set at the level of 0.8821; and the resistance will be at the level of 0.8933.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 9 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 138.04

R2: 137.86

R1: 137.62

Current spot: 137.40

S1: 137.28

S2: 137.11

S3: 136.90

Technical summary:

The triple zig-zag combination in red wave ii likely ended at 136.55 (just 20 pips above our target area). We will not be looking for a break above 137.86 as confirmation that the red wave ii is over and a new impulsive rally is developing for a back to 141.22 on the way towards 143.79. Once resistance at 137.86 is broken, then look for a minor rally to 138.15 before small correction back to 137.28 and the acceleration higher to 141.22 and higher. Only an unexpected break below 136.55 would invalidate the bullish count.

Trading rrecommendation:

Our take profit at 136.35 was missed by 20 pips and out stop + reverse at 137.85 was hit. So we are now long EUR at 137.85 and will place our stop at 136.50.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 09/10/2014 10:45 CET

The corrective cycle in wave B (or alt:(2)) has completed sooner than expected and not the first indication of an impulsive wave progression to the upside is present. The key level for this scenario is the supply zone at the level of 137.93 and only a clear valid breakout higher would mean that market behavior has changed and now higher prices can be seen. Otherwise, this progression can be still seen as part of a bigger corrective cycle. Please note that this pair has broken out of the golden channel, which is a first bullish indication supporting my view.

Support/Resistance:

136.55 - Wave B Low

137.14 - Intraday Support

137.68 - Weekly Pivot

137.95 - Supply Zone|Intraday Resistance|Technical Resistance |Key Level|

138.45 - WR1

138.97 - 139.15 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendation

As long as the price stays above the level of 137.14, only buy orders should be opened with the potential TP at the level of 137.93 and above.

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#USDX Technical analysis for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The Dollar index confirmed its reversal by breaking below important support at 85.50. Now it is testing next support at 85. If broken we should see more selling pressures push the Dollar index towards 84. I warned bulls several times that the parabolic rise should be treated with caution and stops should be raised to protect long positions.

Blue line = support

Red line =price channel

The Dollar index has broken short-term support at 85.50 and is now below the Ichimoku cloud. The Dollar index is heading towards the lower channel boundaries towards 84.75 if support at 85 is broken. Trend is bearish for the short-term. Resistance is found at 85.70 and 85.50. Breaking above these levels will probably bring the index back to its previous highs for a strong test for bulls.

In the daily chart above, the Dollar index has broken below the 23% retracement and is heading towards the 38% retracement at 84.10. Longer-term support is found at 83.25 where the Ichimoku cloud is found and at 82.45 where the 61.8% retracement is. I do not believe though that we will fall further than the 38% retracement but it is still too early to tell. For now I prefer to stay neutral.

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Gold Technical analysis for October 9, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price has broken above short-term resistance after backtesting the broken bearish price channel and is now heading towards $1,235-40. Short-term trend is bullish although the longer-term trend remains bearish. This counter-trend move is most probably another opportunity to sell before breaking below $1,180.

The short-term trend in gold price is bullish. Gold price is above the Ichimoku cloud as shown in the 30 minute chart above. The ichimoku cloud indicators are fully bullish and as long as price is above the support level at $1,204, we should expect this upward move to continue.

Gold price has broken above the downward sloping channel as shown in the 4 hour chart above. Price initially got rejected at the Ichimoku cloud and back tested the break out area of the bearish channel. Once support at $1,202 was held, Gold price spiked higher breaking above the Ichimoku cloud for the first time since August 15th. The 38% retracement is found at $1,235 and this is a possible target for a top in Gold. Breaking above this level will probably push gold price to the next most probable target of $1,265-70. For the time being, short-term trend is bullish. This changes if price falls below $1,204.

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