#USDX Analysis for July 31, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index was rejected at the first resistance level we noted yesterday at 82. The downward sloping channel was not broken and prices got rejected at resistance. This is a sign of weakness and we expect the low at 81.50 to be put to the test. Short-term trend remains down as long as prices trade below 82.35. Intermediate-term trend remains down as long as prices trade below 83.45.

Prices have risen from 81.50 in an overlapping pattern not giving us any bullish sign as this pattern is corrective to the dominant short term downtrend. We believe that as long as prices trade below 82 we will test and break below 81.50 towards 81.

In the daily chart we continue to trade between the 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracements but there is no clear upward impulsive move to mark the start of the reversal. Long-term trend may remain up as long as prices trade above 80, but breaking below 81.50 will put the longer term supports to the test. We remain neutral waiting for the first signals of a trend reversal that is very possible around this price area of 81.50.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Gold continues its sideways movement inside the triangle. This pattern after the top of 1,348 is a sideways triangle and not the downward impulsive move that we were expecting. Prices still remain inside the long-term upward sloping trend channel from 1,180 and today we post an alternative wave count that every passing day makes it more possible.

As shown in the daily chart above, this sideways movement looks like a very possible wave 4 if we assume a new upward impulsive move started from 1,180. This means that we should expect an upward break for the final fifth wave to complete the entire move from 1,180. Targets for this fifth wave are 1,360-1,380.

This does not mean that we forget the bearish possibilities. We still believe that 1,340-49 is an important resistance where prices were rejected more than once. Short-term resistance is found at 1,340 and as long as prices trade above 1,325 the chances for the bullish alternative increase. If prices break below 1,320 then bears will take over again and the bearish scenario will become the dominant again.

Concluding, we are now neutral as prices continue to slide sideways and support at 1,320-25 has been held. Whichever side the triangle breaks, we will see a sharp move towards 1,360 or 1,300.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6762

R2: 1.6686

R1: 1.6649

Current Spot: 1.6612

S1: 1.6577

S2: 1.6543

S3: 1.6514

Technical summary:

With an almost perfect test of strong resistance at 1.6686 (the high has been 1.6674) we think that a correction of this red wave i towards 1.6577 and likely deeper towards 1.6543 would be appropriate. However, we can make a case, where we will not see a correction of that magnitude and if this is the case we will see a direct break above 1.6649 and, more importantly, a break above 1.6686 calling for a continuation higher towards 1.6762 and 1.6818 on the way towards 1.7326, which we believe will be the target for black wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6411 with a stop at 1.6390. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6543 or upon a break above 1.6649 with the same stop at 1.6390.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 31, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 131.17

R2: 130.72

R1: 130.31

Current Spot: 130.10

S1: 129.81

S2: 129.59

S3: 128.89

Technical summary:

We are still in wave ii of c and we do expect it to move higher towards 131.17, where wave ii will have corrected 50% of wave i, but we would not be surprised to see a 61.8% correction of wave i, which would call for a rally towards 131.54, before wave iii takes over for a powerful decline. We will expect wave iii of c to be an extended wave and that would call for a decline towards 126.07 if a 50% correction turns out to be enough. In the short term a break above 130.31 will indicate, that wave c of the correction is under way towards 131.17 and maybe 131.54. Only a direct break below 129.59 will indicate, that wave iii is already has taken over.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for EUR-selling opportunity. We will sell EUR at 131.10 or upon a break below 129.59 with a stop at 132.80.

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