Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair continued its downward journey and is trading below 50Wsma. Today the pair opened above the previous close, but was rejected at 200Dsma. For the short term perspective, the pair has weekly support at 171.00, 50Wsma, on a closing basis, the same provided support on September 2014 at 169.36 levels. In case, if the pair closes below this, 170.62, 200Dema, will act as another major support. In the weekly chart, the base of the triangle providing enough support in the short term on a closing basis. For bears, until the price closes above 173.32 sell on every rise on a positional basis.

For an intraday view, the prices are trading below hourly moving averages. The price has resistance at 171.55. Until the prices close below 171.55 in the h4 chart, use every rise to sell. For an hourly trades, risky traders use sl 171.55 levels.

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Trading recommendation on Gold of October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The strong US data gave strength to the greenback and pushed the yellow metal further down from the key resistance zone at $1,240-$1,250 levels. In the past few days the metal was supported by IMF concerns, slowing German economy and the cooling of the bets on the Fed interest rate hike in the near term. Gold is still holding the triple bottom near $1,180 levels. In yesterday's session the metal made a high at $1,244.80 facing strong resistance at 50Dsma $1,252. As of now today the metal took support at $1,236.60 levels. In case, if the metal closes above $1,252 on a daily basis, then only it can rally up to $1,264, $1,274, $1,278 and $1,285 levels. The short- and medium-term trend still looks bearish. Alternatively on the down side, in case if the metal breaks below $1,238 it has support at $1,235, $1,232 and $1,217 levels. In the daily chart, the stochastics is indicating selling.

For an intraday view, the prices are trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. In Asia's session the metal was rejected at 35DEMA and is trading below 12ema as well. Until the metal trades below $1,245, bears have an upper hand. If the metal sustains above $1,245 it can test $1,249, $1,254 and $1,257 levels. On the down side it has support at $1,235, below this, $1,231, $1,228, $1,223.50 and $1,221.70 will act as support levels. We can see weakness below $1,235 and selling pressure, below $1,231 levels.

Buying above $1,245

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Review on EUR/JPY for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The pair breaks below the base of the triangle in the weekly chart. Three consecutive days the pair fell below the base of the triangle, but at the end of the day it closed above the base of the triangle. In yesterday's session, the pair made a low at 134.13 which touches my target at 134.50 to 134.00 (recorded in October 13, 2014 article). But at the end of the day the pair completely erased its losses and closed in positive territory, it represents some value buying for this pair at the lower levels. The support of the pair is at 135.50 Tuesday and Wednesday closing and opening levels. Today the pair opened above the previous close, same as yesterday. On a monthly basis, as of now the pair has broken below the 20Msma, but managed to trade above that. For the positional view, a monthly close below 135.35, on the down side the pair has next nearest support at 132.60 100Wsma and 131.40 100Msma levels.

As of now, today the pair is unable to breach 136.54 levels, we recommend strong buying above 136.54 levels for targets at 137.06 and 137.60. In the h4 chart, the pair has been facing strong resistance at descending trend line. Buyers can start buying above 136.54 and selling, below 135.75.

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Technical analysis oа EURUSD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Еhe strong US data pushed the pair 130 pips down, but in the end it managed to pare its intraday losses. In yesterday's session the pair touched 20Dsma and bounced from there. On the down side, below 1.2713 the pair has support between 1.2625-1.2606 levels. Today the pair opened below the previous close and as of now the pair has been unable to breach previous open at 1.2838 levels. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.2838, safe buying, above 1.2845, with targets at 1.2901 and 1.2955 (50Dsma). For an intraday view, the support level is at 1.2791, below this, 1.2768. We recommend safe selling below 1.2768 for targets at 1.2733 and 1.2712. Below 34hrsma (1.2700), we can see a sharp fall of 50-60 pips immediately.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today, when the euro zone market opens, they will not release any economic data, but the US will release economic statistics such as the Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Chair Yellen Speech, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2867.

Strong Resistance:1.2860.

Original Resistance: 1.2847.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2834.

Target Inner Area: 1.2804.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2774.

Original Support: 1.2761.

Strong Support: 1.2748.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2741.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic reports, but the US will release some economic data such as Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Chair Yellen Speechaks. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 106.87.

Resistance. 2: 106.66.

Resistance. 1: 106.45.

Support. 1: 106.19.

Support. 2: 105.98.

Support. 3: 105.77.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

On July 15, an extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards below the depicted downtrend line.

Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180, 1.6630 and 1.6400 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then.

The price zone of 1.6140 - 1.6100 constituted a weekly support that paused the bearish movement on September 9 despite the bears quickly pushed below the price level of 1.6060.

Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse was applied as anticipated.

As suggested, price level of 1.5890 provided evident bullish recovery. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick emerged.

Today, the bulls are pushing towards the downtrend line (price zone of 1.6090-1.6120) where another bearish swing is anticipated to be initiated.

On the other hand, bullish breakout will liberate a strong bullish swing towards 1.6260 initially.

Trading recommendations:

A SELL entry can be taken off 1.6120 - 1.6140. Stop Loss should be set as daily closure above 1.6200.

Initial target is located at 1.5890 where further price action should be watched.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Note the depicted Shooting Star daily candlestick that occurred previously around 61.8% Fibonacci level. Such significant bearish pressure offered SELL positions a few days later at retesting.

Note that the bullish rejection was initiated when the market pushed below 1.6100 and 1.6060 on September 9. However, another bearish leg was expressed below 1.6060.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.6100-1.6140 remains a prominent SUPPLY zone where considerable bearish pressure was applied on the pair on Thursday resulting in formation of an Inverted Hammer daily candlestick followed by a long bearish engulfing daily candlestick of Tuesday.

Yesterday, bullish recovery was expressed off 1.5880. Bullish engulfing daily candlestick is depicted on the chart. Bullish targets are located at price zone of 1.6130-1.6180 where price action should be watched for price action.

4H chart reveals long period of downside movement roughly maintained within the limits of the depicted channel.

A SELL entry was suggested around the price level of 1.6140 last Thursday. The resulting bearish swing managed to push below 1.5950 ( weekly DEMAND level ).

Today, the bulls are pushing again towards the upper limit of the channel as well as previous broken bottom ( probably now acting as resistance ). Another SELL entry is suggested around 1.6140-1.6180. Stop Loss should be located above 1.6200.

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USDCAD Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCAD remains in uptrend from 1.0810 (Aug 29 low), the fall from 1.1385 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. Support is at the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, as long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.1500 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

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USDCHF Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDCHF stays below the downward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 0.9687, the rise from 0.9370 is likely consolidation of the downtrend. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 0.9300 area. On the upside, a clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend had completed at 0.9370 already, then another rise towards 1.0000 could be seen.

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USDJPY Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

USDJPY is facing the resistance of the downward trend line on 4-hour chart. A clear break above the trend line resistance will indicate that the downtrend from 110.08 had completed at 105.32 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 109.00 area. On the downside, as long as the trend line resistance holds, the downtrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 104.50 area.

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AUDUSD Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

AUDUSD moved sideways in the trading range between 0.8642 and 0.8898 for several days. As long as 0.8898 resistance holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 0.9401, another fall to 0.8400 area is possible after consolidation.

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GBPUSD Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

GBPUSD's bounce from 1.5874 extended to as high as 1.6109. Further rise is still possible, and next target would be at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart. However, as long as the channel resistance holds, the bounce would possibly be consolidation of the downtrend from 1.6524, another fall towards 1.5600 could be expected after consolidation. Key resistance is at 1.6226, only break above this level could indicate that the downtrend had completed at 1.5874 already, then the following upward movement could bring price to 1.6400 zone.

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EURUSD Daily Analysis - October 17, 2014 Forex Analysis

EURUSD stays above the upward trend line on 4-hour chart, and remains in uptrend from 1.2500, the fall from 1.2867 is likely consolidation of the uptrend. As long as the trend line support holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.2950 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 1.2867 already, then another fall towards 1.2200 could be seen.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

The recent bearish slide below 1.2870 invalidated the previous attempt of bullish reversal. Thus, bearish decline towards 1.2680 and 1.2570 took place shortly after.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair looked oversold and was trading beyond the lower limit of the channel before bullish momentum could get it back inside the channel. That's why, price action around 1.2560 was important to determine the next destination.

Bullish recovery was expressed off 1.2500 and 1.2600 to push towards 1.2700 and 1.2830.

The origin of the bullish engulfing pattern (around 1.2600) provided a good BUY position as suggested in previous articles. It's running in profits now.

The upper limit of the movement channel (1.2880-1.2900) is being approached. Bearish pressure should be anticipated to be applied.

The medium-term bearish trend remains intact as long as the bears keep defending the price zone around 1.2870-1.2900 (the recent consolidation zone).

A short-term bullish Head and Shoulders pattern was established on the 4H chart as anticipated. 4H fixation above 1.2700 confirmed the reversal and allowed the bulls to reach 1.2850.

A good BUY position was suggested around the origin of the bullish Head and Shoulders pattern. The final target is being approached today around 1.2900.

Recommendation :

Price action should be watched around 1.2870-1.2900 ( upper limit of the channel and previous broken demand level ) for another long-term SELL position.

Stop loss for this short position should be located above 1.2965.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade with bearish bias after hitting five-week low 105.19 on Wednesday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge closed up 15.18% at 26.25 Wednesday after hitting near-three-year high of 31.06, S&P 500 closed 0.81% lower at 1,862.494 overnight) and negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 84.92 versus 85.88 early Wednesday) as fears mount that the U.S. may not be immune to economic slowdown elsewhere after larger-than-expected 0.3% on-month drop in U.S. September retail sales (versus forecast -0.1%), much-larger-than-expected fall in Empire State's business conditions index to 6.17 in October from 27.54 in September (versus forecast 20.0), smaller-than-expected 0.2% increase in U.S. August business inventories (versus forecast +0.4%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japan exporter sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year last at 2.129% versus 2.206% late Tuesday, after plunging to 17-month low of 1.865% overnight) as surprise 0.1% on-month drop in U.S. September PPI for first decline in more than a year (versus forecast for 0.1% rise) pushed back expectations that the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates in 2015. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 105.50. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 105.20. The pivot point stands at 106.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 107.05 and the second target at 107.55.

Resistance levels:

107.05

107.55

107.85

Support levels:

105.50

105.20

104.85

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting three-week low 0.9358 on Wednesday. It is weighed by the negative USD sentiment and franc demand on soft EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses. But CHF sentiment is dented by the drop in Switzerland ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of economic sentiment to minus 30.7 in October--the weakest reading since September 2012--from minus 7.7 in September. USD/CHF losses are also tempered by the dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.

Technical comments:
Daily chart is negative-biased as bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9385. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9350. The pivot point stands at 0.9500. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9525 and the second target at 0.9560.

Resistance levels:

0.9525

0.9560

0.96



Support levels:

0.9385

0.9350

0.9315

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in lower range. It is supported by the negative USD sentiment and 1.4% rise in Fonterra's GDT Price Index at latest Global DairyTrade auction and NZD demand on cross trades versus major currencies and NZD-USD interest differential. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the increased risk aversion.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday, MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average staged bullish crossover against 15-day MA.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7840. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.78. The pivot point stands at 0.7955. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8 and the second target at 0.8050.

Resistance levels:

0.8000

0.8050

0.8075



Support levels:

0.7840

0.78

0.7760

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is underpinned by the diminished expectations of Bank of England's rate increase in early 2015 after lower-than-expected U.K. September CPI, sterling sales on cross trades versus major currencies and increased risk aversion. U.K. labour data released Wednesday were mixed as lower-than-expected U.K. unemployment rate of 6.0% in the three months to August (versus forecast 6.1%) was offset by a fewer-than-expected 18,600 drop in U.K. September jobless claimants (versus forecast of minus 33,000), while average wages rose by just 0.7% on year, less than half the rate of inflation and taking pressure off the BOE to raise interest rates from their current record-low 0.5% level. demand from Japan importers and buoyant EUR/USD. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the soft USD/JPY and and Japan exporter sales.

Technical comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.

Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 168.25. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 167.35. The pivot point stands at 171.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 172.45 and the second target at 173.35.

Resistance levels:

172.45

173.35

174

Support levels:

168.25

167.35

166.75

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Gold: analysis for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1,249.46. We can observe rejection from our resistnace level at the price of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,224.00. According to the 4H timeframe, we can observe buying climax, which is a sign that buying looks risky. On the mid-term prospective, price was rejected from our major Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1,193.00, which caused price to start bullish phase. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities. Any larger supply may confirm futher bearish movement.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,249.84

R2: 1,256.52

R3: 1,267.33

Support levels

S1: 1,228.22

S2: 1,221.54

S3: 1,210.73

Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance level.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 1.6219

R2: 1.6166

R1: 1.6140

Current spot: 1.6100

S1: 1.6085

S2: 1.6055

S3: 1.6000

Technical summary:

Nothing new here, the range that we have trade within over the last 2 weeks still persists. We are still looking for a break above minor resistance at 1.6187 and more importantly above resistance at 1.6219 to confirm the next rally higher towards 1.6446 and above 1.6836. Short-term support at 1.6055 and 1.6020 is likely to keep protecting the downside for the expected rally.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 1.6025 was hit and we are now neutral. We will only buy upon a break above 1.6187.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 16 - 2014 Market Analysis Review

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 135.75

R2: 135.44

R1: 135.10

Current spot: 134.84

S1: 134.67

S2: 134.49

S1: 134.19

Technical summary:

We have seen the expected break below support at 135.02 to cause an acceleration lower towards the 23.6% corrective target of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69. However, this support is unlikely to be able to protect the downside and we should see a continuation lower to 132.66 and the next real downside target. In the short term, we will be looking for resistance at 135.10, which ideally will protect the upside for the next decline to 133.58 and lower.

Trading recommendation:

We are short in EUR from 135.70 and will move our stop lower to break-even. If you are not short in EUR yet, then sell near 135.10 with the same stop at 135.70.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Trading recommandations :

• According to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair has still been moving between the levels of 1.2750 and 1.2647. The level of 1.2805 is representing the double top, and the weekly support 1 is set at 1.2750. Therefore, sell below the price of 1.2750 or 1.2805 in the long term with the first target at 1.2680. Moreover, if the trend is able to break the first target at 1.2680; then the trend will call for a bearish market and continue towards the next objectives at 1.2647 and 1.2613.

Notes :

• The double top will set at the level of 1.2805.


• The major support is going to set at 1.2588.


• The resistances will be placed at 1.2775 and 1.2805.


• The level of 1.2728 will confirm the bullish market.


• The price had hit the weekly pivot point and the resistance 1 this week.


• We expect a range of 75 pips today and around 310 pips this week.


• Volatility on October 16, 2014 is 214.61. As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

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Daily analysis of Silver for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Overview

Based on the 4H chart above, silver is still stabilizing between the support level of 17.30 and the resistance level of 17.50 after it rebounded from the resistance level yesterday. If silver continues its bearish move and manages to break the support level of 17.30, this would provide a strong indication for the downward move and open the way towards the support level of 17.00. In this case we should wait for the breakout of this level to continue the bearish move. On the other hand, the breakout of this resistance level would denote a bullish strength providing new buy signals from this level till reaching the resistance level of 17.75, then 18.00.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (18.00), R2 (17.75), R1 (17.50), S1 (17.30), S2 (17.00), S3(17.75).

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

General overview for 16/10/2014 10:30 CET

The corrective cycle in wave b purple has been little longer than previously thought, but there is still one more wave to the downside missing to complete the overall bigger cycle. The current price action is full of fake breakouts but as long as the level of 136.21 is providing the resistance, the bias is bearish and sooner or later one more leg to the downside will be made.

Support/Resistance:

134.62 - WS1

135.08 - Intraday Support

136.21 - Intraday Resistance

136.30 - Weekly Pivot

136.55 - Technical Resistance

136.96 - WR1

136.93 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

Please refrain from trading until a clear pattern emerges.

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Gold wave analysis for October 16, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Gold price, despite breaking below the short-term trend line support two days ago, it managed to stage an upward bounce that broke above $1,238 and reached the 50% retracement at $1,250. The entire upward move from the $1,180 lows is very erratic and most probably corrective in nature.

Blue line = support

Red line = resistance

Gold price remains in a wave 4 complex pattern and has reached the 50% retracement. Despite making a dip to $1,220, the precious metal has spiked towards $1,250 and has the potential to move even higher towards the red trend line resistance. Nevertheless the entire upward move still is viewed as corrective to the larger down trend.

In the 30 minute chart above we observe the short-term price action in Gold. A sideways triangle is being formed and a break above $1,243 could start an upward bounce towards $1,255-65 area equal to the first upward move from $1,220 to $1,249. Breaking below $1,236 will cancel this pattern and this bullish potential. My longer-term view remains bearish as I expect the Gold price to move lower towards $1,050-$1,000 over the coming weeks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com



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