Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for October 8, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6464

R2: 164.05 - Important resistance - Break above here should accelerate the rally.

R1: 1.6368

Current Spot: 1.6362

S1: 1.6326

S2: 1.6267 - Important support - Break below here will question any further upside progress.

S3: 1.6239

Technical summary:

We are closing in on point zero. Will we see a break above resistance at 1.6405 (our preferred scenario) for a continuation higher towards 1.6515 and 1.6987 or do we see a break below 1.6267 (alternate scenario) telling us that the rally from 1.6071 only was a correction and that more downside is needed, for a break below 1.6071 and continuation down to 1.5872.

As said, we still prefer the scenario calling for a break above 1.6405, which would call for a new test of resistance at 1.6515 and higher towards the inverted S/H/S target at 1.6987, but we need to see a proof. Until we see the final proof, we need to stay flexible.

Trading recommendation:

Buy after a break above 1.6405 (buy at 1.6410) and place stop at 1.6280 or sell upon a break below 1.6267 (sell at 1.6255) and place stop at 1.6410.

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Silver still remains in the Buy Zone of the rising trendline. 22.13 is resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal has bounced off just ahead of the rising trendline as depicted here. A break of the 22.10/20 levels would instill confidence to bulls for an extended rally. Long positions, taken earlier, can be held with stop below the 20.00 levels. Resistance is at 22.10/20, followed by 22.40/50, 24.50 and higher; while support is seen at the 19.50 levels respectively. A break of rising trendline would prove quite bearish and can fall towards fresh lows as well. Looking to hold long positions above 20.00 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Hold long positions, stop below 20.00.

Good luck!

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Gold faces Resistance at 1,350.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The metal is seen trading around the 1,310/20 levels for now. It is recommended to remain long with a stop at the 1,270.00 levels. Initial resistance is at 1,350.00, followed by 1,370/80, 1,410 and 1,440; while support is at 1,270.00 respectively. The metal has bounces off from the 0.618 fibonacci support/retracement of the entire rally from 1,180 to 1,440. A break of the 1,270.00 levels would prove extremely bearish for the counter and the trade strategy would turn into selling rallies thereafter. At the moment, the metal needs to first clear 1350.00 levels to instill further bullish confidence.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at 1,270.00

Good luck!

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EURJPY is testing trendline support ahead of 131.50/60 levels Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is testing the rising trendline support, just ahead of the 131.50/60 levels as depicted in the 4H chart. A break would prove to be bearish, and prices may move towards the 130.00 levels on the downside. But a bullish bounce here would continue the trend on the higher side. It is recommended that risk for long positions should be at the 131.00 levels. Resistance begins from 133.50, followed by 134.00 and 134.80/135.00; while support is at 130.00, followed by 129.20, 128.00 respectively. Taking cues from other JPY crosses, the pair may continue sliding in short-term.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, with a stop of 131.00.

Good luck!

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GBPCHF holding 1.4450 levels. Exit short positions Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The currency pair is holding ahead of the 1.4450 levels as seen on charts here. It is recommended to exit short positions taken earlier, though the possibility remains for a dip towards the 1.4400 levels, where the support trendline is passing through as well. The 0.618 fibonacci retracement levels are also passing through the same region, making 1.44 the best price to enter buying on a bullish bounce. Intermediary (short-term) resistance is at the 1.47 levels, followed by 1.48 and 1.5; while support begins from 1.42 region, followed by 1.4 respectively. Looking to buy around 1.44 for now.

Trading recommendations:

Exit short positions, look to buy around 1.44.

Good luck!

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for October 7, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices continue to trade sideways with no clear short-term direction. The chart below shows the triangle is being formed. If prices break above 1326, then we should expect the upward bounce to complete near 1,350-60. If the triangle breaks downwards below 1,304, then expect 1,290-1,280 to be tested.

The short-term trend is neutral. Intermediate-term trend is downward as prices trade below the red downward sloping trendline. If this resistance is broken upwards we should anticipate a move to challenge the 1,375 highs. This line is now at 1,325-30. This level could be used as a stop reversel level. We prefer being short below that level and we could reverse to long if prices break above that level.

The longer-term picture remains unchanged. Strong resistance is found at 1,355-60 and the Head-and-Shoulders pattern is always on our mind as a bearish potential. If the neckline is broken we add to short positions. This confirmation will come if prices break below the 1,270-75 price level. Concluding we have a small short position with 1,330 stop. Wу should open new short positions if the neckline breaks with 1,150-1,200 target.

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#USDX Analysis for October 7, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index has broken the short-term resistance. The move from the lows is an upward impulsive move with 5 waves complete. The pullback is corrective and has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from the 79.63 lows. The short-term trend has changed to upward, and we expect at least 5 more upward waves towards 81 if support at 79.85 and 79.63 holds.

The short-term trend may have changed to upward, but bulls need to be very cautious. The short-term resistance is found at 80.07 and 80.20. Breaking above those two levels will push the index towards 80.55-65. Bulls should not get carried away and play the bullish side of this trade very carefully.

The daily chart remains bearish and the trend continues to favor bears.There is no big trend reversal signal yet, and that is why we prefer small long positions, as mentioned above, in our short-term analysis. The longer-term picture is still bearish and will need a lot of time and money to create a trend reversal from this level. Breaking above 80.75 could be the initial signal of a trend reversal, but we have no signals pointing to that direction yet.

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EUR/JPY H1 Analysis for October 7, 2013 Trend News

General outlook for 07/10/2013 10:00 CET

There is still no impulsive wave development in this pair and the triangle line breakout looks more and more like a fake one.

The Expanding Leading Diagonal wave 1 idea is rather close to invalidation, but I will give it one last chance, as the low of the wave (i) green has not been broken yet.

In case of this bullish scenario is invalidated then my guess is the price is going a little more lower, because the overall big picture might not be in favor of the bulls yet.

Nevertheless, the price is now in the support zone of 55DMA and green triangle trendline support, so it might be a little premature to draw out this kind of conclusions yet.

Support/Resistance:

130.93 - WS1

131.41 - 131.63 DEMAND ZONE

131.15 - Technical Resistance

132.20 - Weekly Pivot

132.98 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

As the bias is still to the upside, long positions should be in play from DEMAND ZONE with SL just below it and potential TP at 132.20

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USD/CAD H1 Analysis for October 7, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 07/10/2013 09:30 CET

Wave c green of overall wave (ii) green has retraced 78% of the previous swing high and now it starts showing some bullish price action.

It is already above Weekly Pivot level and the next resistance is the descending golden trendline that must be broken to confirm more upside.

However, the most important resistance seems to be the area of 1.0336 - 1.0338, where the price was rejected three times last week.

The green impulsive wave progression might be invalidated only if the level of 1.0285 is broken to the downside and confirmation of further bullish development comes with the price breaking above wave (i) high.

If none of this happens, then the price is still in wave 2 green corrective cycle as long as1.0270 is taken out.

Support/Resistance:

1.0285 - Intraday Support | Invalidation Line

1.0305 - Weekly Pivot

1.0325 - Golden trend line resistance

1.0336 - 1.0338 - Intraday Resistance

1.0337 - WR1

1.0349 - 1.0354 - SUPPY ZONE

Trading recommendations:

The golden trendline break/rejection looks like a good opportunity for intraday scalp trade:

- rejection trade: entry at 1.0325 area, SL above 1.0338, TP at 1.0305

- breakout trade (preffered): entry at 1.0325, tight SL and TP1 at 1.0338 and TP2 at 1.0350.

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Wave analysis of the GBP/USD pair for October 7, 2013 Trend News

Wave analysis:

It looks like that on Friday’s drop for 170 points to the level of figure 60, the GBP/USD pair confirmed completion of upward trend channel, starting from the low of August 28. If this assumption is correct, then possibly the currency pair has moved to the stage of formation of downward correction, which will develop towards the level of 1.5850. At the same time if the price reverses from the reached low, the resume of the upward movement and completion of inner wave structure of the fifth wave may be observed.

Targets for down wave:

1.5945 – 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.5846 – 50.0% of Fibonacci

Targets for up wave:

1.6067 – 23.6% of Fibonacci

1.6109 – 11.4% of Fibonacci

Summary and trading recommendations:

The British pound has finished building of uptrend. The decline of the quotes may continue with targets placed near 1.5945 and 1.5846, which is corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% of Fibonacci in terms of correctional wave or a series of waves. In terms of upward wave, probably b, the currency pair may start rising with targets placed near 1.6067 and 1.6109, which is corresponding to 23.6% and 11.4% of Fibonacci. The break of its lower upward channel suggests that the pair is ready to build downward trend channel.

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