Tuesday 13 November 2012

Fundamental Analysis For November 13, 2012 Trend News

After the holidays in the United States, the prices of the major pairs show signs of an upward bounce as usual.


On Monday the dollar emerged as the entire winner of the day, with the exception of the Australian dollar. At the same time, after hitting lows 1.5855 and 1.2660, the euro and the British pound, respectively, the dollar has some signs of weakness ahead of the U.S. session.


It does not change the medium-term outlook for the European currencies, which remain bearish. Though, the pound appears with a strength that the euro does not have. Its projection is 1.2550 for the next few days. However, if the rate overcomes 1.2735, it will speed its recovery, looking for 1.2765, during next hours.

The Swiss franc has a similar trend; it is bearish against the dollar, and with a target in the 0.9720 area. The loonie could return as well to the area of 0.9940.

The rate of inflation in the UK rose more than expected, giving the bullish momentum for the pound. In Germany, the ZEW business climate index fell again, this time it was more predictable; though it did not much affect the euro. It managed to recover from its lows at 1.2660, as it was mentioned.


It is not expected to see any important information during the American session. Although, it is known that, some unpredictable actions may be taken during the early American session and the impact may be similar to ones of key macro reports.


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EUR/USD Rebound - For November 13, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Yesterday during the session the euro slid again. However, in the medium term we maintain a bearish outlook. However, at this time if we sell it may be a bit risky, because the pair is oversold. So, as you can notice on the chart during the early American session the euro has had an upward movement. Thus, we will wait for the return to the daily support, 1.2680 and 1.2650. At these levels we will buy while waiting for a more sustained upward bounce, back to the resistance of 1.2840.


At a fundamental level, the Spanish bonds are rising again; it shows that people have less and less faith in Spain. Germany is slowing down and heading toward a recession, albeit slight, this increases the likelihood that in the medium term the euro will be traded at the level of 1.25.

The MACD indicator on the 4H chart is oversold. It is likely that in the next few days there will be an upward bounce, before the fall continues.



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GBP/USD Buy Above EMA 200 - For November 13, 2012 (Daily Strategy) Trend News

Yesterday the British pound finally approached the level of the 200 day moving average located at 1.5850. Some consider this level to be a key level for the pair. But it does not mean that the bears have won the war, above the EMA 200 the bulls still have strength to fight in the last level of support they have. Therefore, it is recommended to stay tuned to the levels of 1.5850 and 1.5853 weekly support. If the pair is traded in a weekly close below these levels, we will become bearish and leave our bullish outlook.


We still have the last exerted upward. It is very important to place the stop loss very close to the test level, around 1.5830. Our target is located at 1.6065, psychological level.


We recommend caution; the MACD indicator on the 4 hour chart is showing a bullish rebound imminent.



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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for November 13, 2012 Trend News


The GBP/USD pair has been fluctuating heavily within the past few weeks after the broken DAILY bullish channel was retested around the price zone of 1.6160 - 1.6180, failing to maintain a directional trend.

The false breakout above the short-term descending resistance depicted on the 4H chart was maintained at Daily Resistance Level 1.6160. It activated the bearish scenario, which anticipates further downside pressure this week, possibly towards 1.5850 initially supported by the breakdown below 50% Fibonacci (1.5930) that took place on Friday.

Also the narrow consolidation range 1.6025 - 1.5925 was broken to the downside with a potential target near price level of 1.5770.

Consolidation below the Intraday Support Price Zone 1.5900 - 1.5930 is necessary to maintain the bearish movement. Otherwise, deeper bullish retracement may take place first.


Support: 1.5880, 1.5780.

Resistance: 1.5920, 1.5950, 1.6030.


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Silver Rally To Gain Strength. Hold Long Positions and Buy On Dips Trend News


Technical Outlook and Charts Setups:


The structure remains very much constructive for bulls. As it is expected, the metal has retraced the recent rally till about 32.00 level before bouncing back. It is recommended to hold on to long positions taken earlier and also plan to build further long positions at these levels. It is quite possible that silver retracements could extend up to 31.70/60 levels, hence buying can be planned accordingly. Intermediary support begins around 32.00 level and extends through 31.00 level; while resistance is spread through 33.30/34.30 and 35.00 levels. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions, build further longs till sub 31.70 level. Stop at 30.50. Target open.


Good Luck!


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Gold Targeting Higher From Here. Retracement May Be Complete Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Structurally, the yellow metal remains bullish. As expected and discussed yesterday, the metal has retraced about 1,720.00 level before pulling back. It is recommended to start building long positions from these levels in addition to the long positions taken earlier. It is still possible that the correction may continue till about 1,700.00 level, so buying could be planned accordingly. Intermediary support stands at 1,700.00 region and extends through the 1,675 region; while resistance is spread through 1,760/65, 1,780, and 1,795. Looking higher from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to earlier long positions, take fresh long positions on dips till 1,700.00, stop at 1,680.00, and target open.


Good Luck!


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EurJpy Falls Back. 100.00 Level Remains Key To Decide Further Direction Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


Yesterday the single currency pair pulled back sharply. This could still possibly be a test of the recent lows. It is recommended to stay flat for now. If long positions have been taken yesterday, it can be held for now. Please avoid taking fresh long positions for a while. Intermediary support remains around 100.20 level, while resistance starts from 101.75. We still favor at least a decent pullback towards 102.50 level before any major move. Look higher in the short term.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold on to long positions for now. Stop at 100.00. Target Open.


Good Luck!


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GbpChf Downside Should Accelerate. Hold On To Short Positions Trend News


Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:


The bearish structure remains intact for now. At the moment the single currency pair is retracing the fall from 1.5148 level and is set to accelerate downside. It is recommended to sell intraday rallies towards sub 1.5100 level now. Resistance is lined up from 1.5100-1.5200, 1.5300, and 1.5400 levels, while support is lined up from 1.4800 through 1.4700 level. Intraday rallies should remain well capped below 1.5150 level now for the bears to take further control. Looking lower from here on.


Trading Recommendations:


Hold short positions taken earlier, sell intraday rallies towards 1.5100, stop at 1.5150/60. Target 1.4600.


Good Luck!


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