Daily analysis of major pairs for February 18, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: Given the existing Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, this remains a bullish market, although the price did not move significantly upwards this week. It is expected that the price would resume its bullish journey, when momentum does return to the market.

USD/CHF: Given the existing Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, this remains a bear market, although the price has not moved significantly downwards this week. It is expected that the price would resume its bearish journey when momentum does return to the market.

GBP/USD: After the Cable ran into the distribution territory at 1.6800, it has experienced a sharp pullback. The pullback is normal, but it ought not to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6600, otherwise it would jeopardize the current bullish outlook. The pullback is a good opportunity to go long.

USD/JPY: When a bearish signal was generated here last week, it was perceived as a limited thing, for other JPY pairs were bullish. The price has broken upwards seriously from the demand level of 102.00, and it should continue going up.

EUR/JPY: Yesterday, it was forecasted that it was more likely that when a breakout happened on the EUR/JPY, it would be to the upside. That is exactly what happened. From the demand zone of 139.50, the cross went upwards by over 140 pips. This is the beginning of a new lease of another bullish bias, and the price may soon test the supply zone at 141.50.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 18, 2014 Trend News

The yellow metal has been pulled back very strong amid concerns around the US recovery. Recently printed data poured cold water on the US economy recovery hopes. In the hourly and daily charts, overbought signs are indicating selling pressure on gold. In Asia's trading session, gold is trading at the level of $1,327. Last two days, we advised selling. We still think the same. In the daily chart RSI has stood at 75.0, which is an overbought position. But here the question arises, how deep this falling can be?

Intraday- The support exists at the level of $1,320.0. If the metal breaks the level of $1320.0, it can fall to $1,316 and $1,310. If the RSI stays at overbought levels of 75.0 in the hourly chart, the price would fall around $20-$35.

On a positional basis, after a break below $1,264, we can see the trend change. On the upper side, a break above the level of $1,338 would add $30 to the price. In September 2012, RSI reached the overbought level at 81 and the price corrected almost $100. Now RSI reached 75, let's see how much it corrects.

Intra recommendation-

Support: $1,320, $1,316, $1,310.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Japan's economy grew just 0.3% in the fourth quarter, well below the median estimate of a 0.7% increase and followed a 0.3% growth in July-Sept. The disappointing result will keep pressure on the Bank of Japan to support the economy once an increase in the sales tax takes place in April. In the technical front, USD/JPY gave a nice breakout in the daily and hourly charts. In Asia's trading session, the pair is trading at the level of 102.07. Yesterday, in our USDX daily report, we discussed that USD pairs had attractive trade setup near crucial support zone. We recommend buying on USDX and USD/SGD. USD/JPY after making a double top in the daily chart at the level 102.7, went through a healthy correction. In yesterday's trade the pair made a double bottom in the hourly chart at the level of 101.39. After a good consolidation, the pair today gave a fresh break. In the hourly chart RSI looks positive, and the price is trading above the 21 and 40 DEMA. Right now can we can see overbought signs in the hourly chart, so some pullback is expected before further upmove.

Intraday recommendation- buy for targets of 102.7

Support: 101.88, 101.6, 101.0.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 18, 2014 Trend News

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Current Account, Italian Trade Balance, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment, ECOFIN Meetings.The US will release the economic data too such as the US-Empire State Manufacturing Index, US-TIC Long-Term Purchases, US-NAHB Housing Market Index, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.3769.

Strong Resistance:1.3760.

Original Resistance: 1.3747.

Inner Sell Area: 1.3734.

Target Inner Area: 1.3701.

Inner Buy Area: 1.3668.

Original Support: 1.3655.

Strong Support: 1.3642.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.3633.

DESCRIPTION:

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3655 and 1.3747. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3642 and by 1.3760 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3633 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3769 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3668 and at 1.3734, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be placed at the level of 1.3701.

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY has paused at 140.00 since last week and is moving in a tight trading range as seen here. The support of the trading range is 139.00/10, while resistance is 140.00/10. A breakout can be expected soon and recommendations are to take fresh positions in that direction. Hold on to short positions taken earlier, for now.

2. Immediate resistance is at 140.00, followed by 142.00/143.00 and 145.50, while supports are spread through 136.50 (intermediary), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure indicates that EUR/JPY has potential to fall towards the passing line of support at 136.00 at least. A fall below that would be further bearish confirmation towards 134.00/131.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 142.00. Turn long upon a bullish break above 140.00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair remains structurally unchanged for now. The pair has retraced to1.4950/60, which is also fibonacci 0.618 resistance as seen here. The rally has stalled and a possible down move should be on the way. It is recommended to remain short, risk remains at 1.5120.

2. Intermediary resistance is at 1.4950/60, followed by 1.5120/30, while supports are spread through 1.4550/60, followed by 1.4350/60 respectively.

3. The structure is indicative of a potential head and shoulder reversal formation as seen here. A potential right shoulder has been carved out at 1.4950/60 levels and the next large move could be lower towards 1.43 levels at least.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop is at 1.5130, target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for February 18, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver has raised past the intermediary resistance of $20.50 through the first measured extension at $21.70 now. The next probable move should be lower in a corrective manner towards $20.30/50. It is recommended to remain flat for now and await for a dip before initiating long positions.

2. Immediate resistance is at $22.00, followed by $23.00, while supports are spread through $20.40/50 (past resistance turned support), $19.80/20.00 and $19.00 respectively.

3. The structure indicated that Silver has reversed trend forming an inverted head and shoulder, with the $19.00 levels as right shoulder. The next probable move should be lower from here, towards $20.40/50.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to buy lower.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for February 18, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Gold has raised through resistance of $1,279.00, $1,294.00, and $1,323.00 within the past 3-5 trading sessions. It is quite possible that the metal has reversed after forming a double bottom around the $1,180.00 region. Recommendations are to remain flat and allow for a meaningful retracement towards $1,238.00 before going long.

2. Next major resistance is at $1,360.00, followed by $1,375.00, while supports are $1,270.00, followed by $1,230/20, $1,210.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure indicated that a major corrective fall should materialize soon towards the falling trend line which is support now. On the other hand, a push through $1,332.00 would want to target $1,360.00 before retracing.

Trading recommendations:

Flat for now. Looking to buy lower

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has found support at the level of 80.11 but has not yet formed a fractal, so we could not conclude with certainty whether this is a change in the current trend. However, USDX may be forming a higher low pattern over this level. If the USDX makes a breakout at the support level, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.19. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H4 chart: The USDX remains within the low range between the 80.15 and 80.09 levels. Note that the USDX formed a fractal near the resistance level of 80.15, but it is very likely the USDX will continue to rise as it found strong support at the level of 80.00. If the USDX manages to break the bullish trend line near the 80.22 level, it is expected to rise to the level of 80.44. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: It has formed a point of control near the resistance level of 80.15. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 80.35. However, we must consider that the outlook remains bearish in this chart, since the USDX remains below the 200 SMA and MACD indicator is overbought.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 80.15, take profit is at 80.35, and stop loss is at 79.96.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 18, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: GBP/USD found resistance at the level of 1.6766 and now this pair is forming a lower high pattern below that level. This movement is normal, since the GBP/USD is in a corrective phase in its bullish bias. However, it is still very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6663, because the GBP/USD is overbought. However, if the pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6766, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6851. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H4 chart: In this chart, the GBP/USD formed a fractal near the resistance level of 16820. It is very likely that this pair will fall to the support level of 1.6667, at which there is one bullish trend line. If the pair manages to break that level, it would be expected to fall to the level of 1.6644. However, it is very likely that the GBP/USD will make a bullish rebound at that trend line and continue the bullish bias. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

H1 chart: This pair found support at the level of 1.6700 and formed a point of control there. If the pair manages to break the resistance level of 1.6750, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6800. We think the current trend of this pair as it is declining is only corrective movements in favor of the bullish bias. The MACD indicator is oversold.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6750, take profit is at 1.6800, and stop loss is at 1.6700.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 17, 2014 Trend News

A considerable support was provided around 1.6250. This price level corresponds to the previous multiple tops as well as recent bottom established around 1.6250.

A breakthrough above the price zone of 1.6590-1.6660 opened the way directly towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.6820 where the bulls failed to fix above.

The upper limit of the ongoing bullish channel provided considerable resistance for the pair resulting in an inverted Hammer daily candlestick.

A bearish impulse towards 1.6590-1.6660 is expected to take place where a bullish position can be taken if the bulls express enough bullish presence around this area. This needs careful watching of price action on the shorter time frames.

Breakdown of 1.6600-1.6590 clears the way towards a more prominent support around 1.6475 (previous established bottom).

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 17, 2014 Trend News

The bulls managed to hit fresh highs (around 1.1220) that haven't been visited since 2009.

Recently, USD failed to keep its gains against CAD, and the USD/CAD pair was pushed to the downside indicating weakness of the ongoing bullish momentum.

Friday's candlestick came as a bullish hammer. This indicates bullish presence around the price level of 1.0960.

It's important to note that the pair established a consolidation zone between 1.0850 and 1.0960. This renders the zone as a support area.

Breakdown of 1.0960 opens the way directly towards 1.0850 which comes to meet the uptrend line depicted on the chart. This may provide a valid BUY entry with SL as daily closure below 1.0850.

On the other hand, the nearest resistance zone is located around 1.1230-1.1250 corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level of the bearish swing that extended between March 2009 and July 2011.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for February 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview

From today's H4 chart and as it was expected last week, we see that we should wait for breaking the Resistance level of 171.00 before making the decision to continue the bullish move. Today and as it is shown on the H4 chart, the pair failed to break this Resistance area and bounced from it to stabilize below the Resistance level of 171.00 since yesterday and reversed its bullish move taking a slightly bearish move closer to the Support level of 169.75. Currently, it is approaching the Support level trying to break it through to continue its bearish move. If the pair manages to break this Support level and closes 4H below, it would be another good opportunity for more sell signals till reaching the Support level of 168.50 as the first target.

Resistance and support levels: R3 (172.30), R2 (171.50), R1 (171.00), S1 (169.75), S2 (168.00), S3(167.00).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 17, 2014 Trend News

On the daily chart we can see that the bulls found enough demand around 1.3570 to push again towards 1.3680-1.3700 for another retesting.

A prominent top was established around the same price zone on January 24. This renders this price zone as a considerable supply for the pair.

Initial bearish target for this possible bearish rejection is located near 1.3530 (previously established bottom).

On the other hand, a possible inverted Head and Shoulders may be confirmed if the bulls manage to push above 1.3700 (neckline) aiming at 1.3900 corresponding to 100% Fibonacci expansion of the previous bullish swing.

In the short-term, temporary rejection may be expressed to retest 1.3500 as long as 1.3700 remains defended by the bulls.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 17, 2014 Trend News

The GBP/USD pair established a recent demand level around the price level of 1.6250 where a prominent bottom was established on February 5.

A strong bullish impulse was expressed shortly after opening the way towards 1.6575 then 1.6666. Both resistance levels have been broken through.

Recently, the bulls failed to fix above 1.6800 which is manifested in the current daily candlestick.

As long as the bulls are defending price level of 1.6666, the pair remains bullish in the long-term. However, it's expected to have some bearish momentum to push towards 1.6575.

It's important to watch 4H chart for a closer view of price action towards 1.6666.

Four-hour closure below this level opens the way for the bears to gather enough momentum towards 1.6575.

On the other hand, bullish rejection may be expressed due to positive fundamental releases from the UK.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. Liquidity is thin today as financial markets in the U.S. and Canada are shut for holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the negative U.S. dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.10 versus 80.30 early Friday) after surprise 0.3% drop in the U.S. January industrial production (versus forecast 0.3% increase) and weaker-than-expected U.S. January capacity utilization of 78.5% (versus 79.3% forecast). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports sales. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy stance and yen-funded carry trades amid positive risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.03% to 13.57; S&P gained 0.48% Friday) after University of Michigan preliminary February consumer sentiment index came in better than expected at 81.2 (versus 80.0 forecast).

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are turning bearish.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.5 in mind. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.2. The pivot point stands at 102.15. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is most favourably expected to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.4 and the second target at 102.7.

Resistance levels:

102.4

102.7

102.95

Support levels:

101.5

101.2

100.75

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with the risks skewed higher. It is supported by the positive investor risk appetite and demand from the Japanese importers. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan's exporter sales. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 171.35 and the second target at 172.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 169. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 168.25. The pivot point is at 169.8.

Resistance levels:

171.35

172.15

172.60

Support levels:

169

168.25

167.1

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/CHF is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the negative U.S. dollar sentiment and franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.888. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.8855. The pivot point stands at 0.8955. In case the price moves in the opposite direction, bounces back from support level, and then moves above its pivot point, it is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.8995 and the second target at 0.902.

Resistance levels:

0.8995

0.902

0.904

Support levels:

0.888

0.8855

0.8825

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

NZD/USD is expected to trade in a higher range. It is supported by the negative U.S. dollar sentiment, positive investor risk appetite and buoyant commodity prices; hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy stance. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the weaker-than-expected 1.2% on-quarter increase in New Zealand 4Q retail sales (versus +1.6% forecast) and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross. Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter one at an overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.84 and the second target at 0.843. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8295. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.825. The pivot point is at 0.8325.

Resistance levels:

0.84

0.843

0.846

Support levels:

0.8295

0.825

0.823

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Weekly technical levels of GBP/USD for February 17-21, 2014 Trend News

Weekly technical levels of the GBP/USD pair.

Notes :

• Support: 1.6630


• Resistance: 1.6870


• New range: 85 pips.

General overview about pivot points :

• R3 and S3 are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.


• Pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as the prices are most likely to be between the R1 and S1 lines.


• Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and continue the movement.


• If the breaking news released affects the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 and R3 or S2 and S3.

Observations :

• If the trend is buoyant, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.


• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.


• Fibonacci is in a trading range; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term, you will surely lose your profit.


• Stop loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.


• As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had huge volatility.

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GOLD analysis for February 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards, like we expected, the price tested the level of 1,329.65 on volume below the average. Gold is sill in major bullish corrective phase. We can observe decreasing volume on upper leg, which is a sign that we may see possible bearish movement. We may expect testing of the major FE 100% at the price of 1,334.00 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1,337.00. Be careful with buying at this stage since we have got decreasing volume on upper leg and Gold is at a new high. Our advice is to watch for potential bearish movement in case that we see strong supply on higher volume around our Fibonacci levels. If we don not see stronger supply on the market around our Fibonacci levels, we may see even more upward movement before any larger downward.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,324.17

R2: 1,325.33

R3: 1,327.20

Support levels:

S1: 1,320.43

S2: 1,319.27

S3: 1,317.40

Trading recommendation: Trading the metal, be careful with buying since we got decreasing volume on upper leg and Gold is in high new ground.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 17, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading upwards, as we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6390 on volume above the average. Our previous analysis is still valid. We can observe weak supply (high churn bar) on the market and rejection of our Fibonacci retracement sub major 61.8% around the price of 1.6320. The area of 1.6300-1.6280 is major support since we've got major Fibonacci expansion 61.8% (1.6300) and sub major FE 61.8% at the price of 1.6285. Selling around these areas looks very risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential upper stations and I got FE 38.2% at the price of 1.6450 and FR 61.8% at the price of 1.6575. EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6407

R2: 1.6429

R3: 1.6465

Support levels:

S1: 1.6335

S2 : 1.6313

S3: 1.6277

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair,watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the bullish continuation phase.

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Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD for February 17-21, 2014 Trend News

Weekly technical levels:

Overview :

• It should be noticed that the gap of the EUR/USD pair has opened above the weekly pivot point at the level of 1.3710. Therefore, the market will probably indicate a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3710 and the weekly pivot point will act as strong support on February 17, 2014. So, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between the price of 1.3700 and the 1.3750 level. Thenceforward, the area above 1.3700 (above the weekly pivot point) looks for further upside with the first target at the 1.3754 level in order to form to test the weekly resistance 1 and continue towards 1.3805. However, stop loss should be placed below 1.3700.

Notes :

• The resistance will set at the level of 1.3754 for today.


• We expect a range of 60 pips on February 17, 2014.

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#USDX Technical analysis for February 17, 2014 Trend News

The Dollar index has broken its short-term support at 80.15-20 and has now moved below 80. The index continues to trade within the downward sloping trend channel and continues to make lower lows and lower highs. However, the index is oversold and we believe that a strong upward bounce should be expected soon.

Short-term resistance is found at 80.20 and short-term support is found at 79.95. The index is very possible to rise towards the upper channel boundaries to test the downward trend. Although the index has broken below the upward sloping black trend line, it has found support over the previous lows and the horizontal support they provide. This can be seen clearer in the daily chart below.

The two purple horizontal trend lines are important support levels from last Decemeber. We expect and upward bounce to come from these levels. A move towards 80,40-60 could be justified. However, this is important resistance area and it will be very dofficult for bulls to break above this level. For now, all time frames point downwards. The oversold conditions justify a bounce and we are expecting an upward move soon.

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Gold technical analysis for February 17, 2014 Trend News

The buying strength in Gold has pushed prices above our main price target of $1,320. This target fulfilled our short- and intermediate-term target levels, and we now look for a pullback. Our longer-term view in Gold has now changed a bit. We may first see a move towards $1,400 before resuming downwards towards our longer-term target of $1,140-$1,1100. The double bottom at $1,180 supports the bullish momentum that will push Gold price towards $1,400.

Short-term support is found at $1,315-18 and if broken could push Gold price towards $1,290-80. Short-term resistance is found at $1,335 and we believe that we need to see a corrective pullback as the overbought conditions demand it.

Gold is at a long-term resistance trend line. The first try we expect to be rejected. If Gold price manages to break above it and hold the upward sloping blue trend line, we should expect over the next couple of months for Gold price to reach between $1,400 and $1,500. At that price level, we will reevaluate our long-term target of $1,140.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for Febuary 17, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 17/02/2014 09:17 CET

The corrective cycle in current wave is getting more complex and time consuming. The overall shape is being as some kind of a flat correction but there is a possibility, that wave b green might be a triangle formation. Currently, the market is in the daily range area and a breakout is needed to gain more clues about further wave progression. For any extended upside correction, the golden trend line must provide the resistance and the level of 140.05 marked as intraday resistance must hold. Otherwise, the recent swing high at the level of 140.28 might be tested, but the breakout above this high doesn't mean the correction is over. The main count is still anticipating one more wave to the downside and the target for wave b green is at the level of 138.59 and in case of equal inside legs projection at the level of 138.39.

Support/Resistance:

140.28 - Swing High

140.22 - WR1

140.05 - Intraday Resistance

139.29 - 139.67 - Daily Range Area

139.42 - Weekly Pivot

138.97 - Intraday Support

138.57 - WS1

138.38 - Target Projection Level

Trading recommendations:

The upper golden trend line break out is the key dynamic resistance for any more future gains, so in case of this line violation long positions should be opened with SL below the level of 139.67 and TP at the level of 140.28.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 17, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6459

R2: 1.6420

R1: 1.6395

Current spot: 1.6378

S1: 1.6339

S2: 1.6327

S3: 1.6298

Technical summary:

We are looking for a break above resistance at 1.6420 soon, this break will confirm acceleration higher towards at least 1.6632. Short-term support at 1.6339 will ideally protect the downside for the break above resistance at 1.6420 for the expected acceleration higher. An unexpected break below 1.6339 will delay the upside pressure for a move closer to 1.6298 before renewed upside pressure should be seen.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 1.6260 and keep your stop at 1.6210. If you are long in EUR, then buy on a break above 1.6420 with a stop at 1.6320.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 17, 2014 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 140.07

R2: 139.69

R1: 139.42

Current spot: 139.31

S1: 138.95

S2: 138.68

S3: 138.17

Technical summary:

The price behavior is still not convincing, but as we approach the decision point we will soon see a clarification, whether we shall see an impulsive red wave (iii) decline or whether we are in wave B of a flat correction. As long as resistance at 140.07 stays intact we will look for a break below support at 138.68 confirming that red wave (iii) lower towards 131.93. Only a break above resistance at 140.07 invalidates the downside pressure and will call for a rally higher towards at least 143.17 and likely even closer to 145.69 in a flat correction.

Trading recommendation:

Stay short in EUR from 140.00 and keep your stop+revers at 140.10. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell upon a break below 138.68 with the same stop at 140.10. Alternativly buy EUR upon a break above 140.07 with a stop at 138.65.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 17, 2014 Trend News

EUR/USD: This pair has been able to maintain its upward journey, moving close to the resistance area at 1.3700. For the northward journey to continue, the price would need to break the resistance area to the upside. The target for this week is at the resistance line of 1.3800.

USD/CHF: This pair has been able to maintain its southward journey, moving close to the support level at 0.8900. For the southward journey to continue, the price would need to break the support level to the downside. The target for this week is at the support level of 0.8850.

GBP/USD: The Cable was able to move more than 350 pips last week, closing at 1.6747. The target for this week is at the distribution territory of 1.6800, though there are possibilities of transitory pullbacks, because the RSI period 14 has moved into the overbought region. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart is extremely strong right now.

USD/JPY: The bearish signal in the market is still in place – the price is below the EMA 56 while the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. However, the ‘sell’ signal which comes as a result of the weakness in the Greenback, should be taken with tight targets, for it is not likely that the price would move below the demand level at 101.00.

EUR/JPY: This cross moved sideways throughout last week, but it was able to maintain its bullish outlook. Therefore, it is more likely that when a breakout happens, it would be to the upside.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD for February 17, 2014 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Last week, the AUD/USD pair traded upwards, impulsive wave [i] (coloured black) of the bigger wave C (coloured blue) developed. In the 1-hour chart above, we can see that the price is pushing aggressively higher after the pair found support at the 0.8925 level, the end of the blue B wave. Impulsive wave [i] should be over in the next few hours and that is why we are going to look for the short term selling opportunity against the 0.9100 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that wave [ii] should extend 50% of wave [i], we can define the potential targets with measuring wave [i] with take profit at 0.8997 (50% of wave [i]). The RSI indicator is showing marginal divergence that need to stay intact while price don't finish corrective wave [ii] or our primary count become invalid.



Alternate count: Wave B did not manage to make a full 50% retrace that we wanted, so if we see new lows below the 0.8930 level, we need to look at the B wave as FLAT correction, if this become a case, we are going to look for buying opportunity around the 0.8860 area.



Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.8905, (S2) 0.8936, (S1) 0.8982, (PP) 0.9013, (R1) 0.9059, (R2) 0.9090, (R3) 0.9136.



Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliot Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movements. That is why short positions at the level of 0.9045 with stop loss at 0.9100 take profit at 0.8997 are recommended.

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