Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting near-one-month low of 107.26 this morning. Liquidity was thin as financial markets in Japan, U.S. and Canada are shut today for public holidays. USD/JPY is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 13.22% to 21.24, S&P 500 fell 1.15% to close at 1,906.13 Friday) as worries persist over slowing global economic growth. USD/JPY is also weighed by lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.305% versus 2.327% late Thursday), buy-yen orders from Japan exporters and concern among some Federal Reserve officials about USD's strength. Fed's Evans said on Saturday that a stronger dollar is a headwind as it will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to meet its inflation mandate and will impede growth. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the sell-yen orders from the Japanese importers, broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 85.72 versus 85.55 early Friday) on outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and smaller-than-expected 0.5% on-month drop in the U.S. September import price index (versus forecast -0.7%).
Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, although latter at oversold, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 107. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 106.75. The pivot point stands at 107.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 108.20 and the second target at 108.50.
Resistance levels:
108.20
108.50
108.80
Support levels:
107
106.75
106.45
Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is supported by the broadly firmer USD undertone, franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on soft EUR/CHF cross and also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.305% versus 2.327% late Thursday) and concerns among some Federal Reserve officials about USD's strength. Fed's Evans said on Saturday that a stronger dollar is a headwind as it will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to meet its inflation mandate and will impede growth.
Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bearish mode but stochastics is turning neutral.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.9495. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9465. The pivot point stands at 0.9550. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9650.
Resistance levels:
0.96
0.9650
0.9685
Support levels:
0.9495
0.9465
0.9420
Fundamental overview:
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode but stochastics is turning bearish.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7920 and the second target at 0.7960. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7785. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.7745. The pivot point is at 0.7820.
Resistance levels:
0.7920
0.7960
0.8005
Support levels:
0.7785
0.7765
0.7745
Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. Weighed by broadly firmer USD undertone and sterling sales on soft GBP/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the expectations that the BOE would raise interest rates in early 2015 ahead of the Federal Reserve and narrower-than-expected U.K. August global goods trade deficit of GBP 9.1 billion (versus forecast GBP 9.7 billion) and sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and on buoyant GBP/AUD, GBP/NZD crosses.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, five and 15-day moving averages are declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 172. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 171.60. The pivot point stands at 173.60. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 174.05 and the second target at 174.35.
Resistance levels:
174.05
174.35
175
Support levels:
172
171.60
171.25
Overview :
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,228.00. There is very low activity on the market and we are waiting for larger volume and price action. Our resistance level at the price of 1,230.00 held successful, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. According to the daily chart, we can observe weak demand in a volume above the average. If the price breaks the level of 1,234.00 in a high volume, we may see the testing of the level of 1,244.00 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). Anyway, since gold has started bearish corrective phase, I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels and I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1,214.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1,202.00.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels:
R1: 1,232.42
R2: 1,234.28
R3: 1,237.80
Support levels
S1: 1,225.78
S2: 1,223.72
S3: 1,220.40
Trading recommendations: Buying still looks risky since gold is near resistance levels
Overview :
In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price rejected from the level of 1.6210 and tested the level of 1.6086 in a average volume. I have placed Fibonacci expansion from most recent swings to find potential end of bullish corrective phase. I got Fibonacci expanson 61.8% at the price of 1.6200 (held successful). If the price breaks the level of 1.6000, we may see the testing of the level of 1.5900. Be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities after retracement. According to the daily timeframe, we can observe weak demand on the market.
Daily Fibonacci pivot levels :
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.6202
R2: 1.6229
R3: 1.6272
Support levels:
S1: 1.6116
S2: 1.6089
S3: 1.6046
Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying the EUR/NZD pair since we may see short-term bearish continuation
General overview for 13/10/2014 13:20 CET
After recent impulsive count invalidation due to wave 1 and wave 2 overlap, the count has been re-visited, updated and re-labeled. The current situation is still not very clear as it looks like the market has returned to the range zone and the complex and time-consuming corrective cycle from the wave 1 purple top at the level of 145.67 has not been completed yet. After making a false breakout to the upside in wave (X) brown, the price retraced all of the advance and now is trading even below the important level of long-term support at 135.75. The trading conditions might get worsen in terms of whipsaws and false breakouts as the next wave of corrective cycle is coming - wave B black - and this wave is usually the hardest to trade. Nevertheless, there is still one more wave to the downside is missing, wave C black, and only when this last wave is completed, the market will be ready to resume the uptrend.
Support/Resistance:
135.56 - Intraday Support
135.71 - Technical Support
136.30 - Weekly Pivot
136.55 - Intraday Resistance
136.96 - WR1
136.93 - Technical Resistance
Trading recommendations:
The daytraders should consider opening buy orders only if the level of 136.55 is clearly broken with SL below the level of 135.55 and TP at the level of 137.04 with a possible extension to the level of 137.93.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comGeneral overview for 13/10/2014 13:10 CET
The recent price action on this pair indicates some sort of possible gains consolidation just below the golden channel line, between the area of 1.1221 - 1.1158 with the key level being the intraday resistance at the level of 1.1221. The outlook and bias for this pair is still bullish, but the internal sub-cycle wave c green to the downside still seems to be missing. Please keep an eye on both intraday levels, because only a clear breakout above one of the levels will give more clues about further wave development.
Support/Resistance:
1.1291 - WR1
1.1277 - Technical Resistance
1.1221 - Intraday Resistance|Key Level|
1.1186 - Weekly Pivot
1.1158 - Intraday Support
1.1124 - Intraday Support
1.1108 - WS1
1.1070 - 1.1080 - Demand Zone|Key Level|
Trading recommendations:
The overall bias is still bullish and buying the dips in this market is advised. Nevertheless, some internal sub-cycles seem not to be completed, so please monitor the situation continuously and trade only if any of the intraday levels are clearly broken.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.comThe weekly technical levels of GBP/USD:
The movement of pivot point between resistance and support levels of the GBP/USD pair .
Notes :
The Weekly technical levels of EUR/USD pair:
Short-term f orecast :
Warnings :
Despite finding support at 85 and starting an upward bounce, the Dollar index did not manage to close above the tenkan-sen resistance at 85.85. The downward correction that started at 86.75 may be incomplete. Breaking below 85 will imply a move lower towards 84.20
Blue line= support
Red line= price channel
Although, the Dollar index remains inside the bullish upward sloping price channel. Price however is below the Ichimoku cloud in the 4 hour chart. This implies short-term trend remains bearish as price did not manage to break above the cloud resistance. The decline frm 86.75 is corrective and the bigger correction may still be incomplete as long as the index remains below the cloud. Resistance at 85.85 and 86 is critical. Bulls will regain the upper hand if price breaks above 86. This would be a good buy signal with 85 stop and 86.75 1st target and 87.17 2nd target.
In the daily chart as shown above, the Dollar index could not manage to break above the tenkan-sen at 85.85 and got rejected on Friday . I mentioned last time that bulls needed to break above that resistance to regain control. Control is still in the hands of bears that will try to push the index below 85. Breaking below the 85 support will push the index towards the 38% retracement and the Ichimoku cloud around 84.
Gold price has found support above $1,180 and is now in an upward corrective bounce. Our longer-term view remains bearish towards $1,050-$1,000 but today I analyze my alternative wave scenario where we could first see a push towards $1,280-$1,300.
Let's look first at the short-term price action in gold. Accordng to our primary scenario that we have started wave 5 down, we have unfinished wave structure that implies a new low below $1,180, which is expected once this upward bounce is complete. The bounce has already reached the 38% retracement which is a typical price level for 4th waves. The break below $1,220 and $1,204 short-term support levels will confirm that the downtrend has resumed with $1,050 as 1st target.
In the chart above, I show my alternative wave scenario due to the triple bottom formation around $1,180. We could still be inside wave 4 and the bounce that started at $1,181 is probably wae E of wave 4. So we should not be surprised if we see gold price moving towards $1,300 to complete the sideways triangle correction before resuming its down trend towards $1,000.
