Analysis of USD/CAD for March 06, 2014 Trend News

The Bank of Canada yesterday announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1%. In Canada, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 was slightly stronger than the bank estimated. Exports have been a little stronger than previously thought. The Monetary Policy Report says that both total CPI and core inflation are still expected to follow roughly the path outlined in January. The fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada continue to strengthen gradually.

In the US dollar front, the US service sector data was below expectations. The institute for Supply Management yesterday said that its service sector index fell to 51.6 from 54 in January. The US service companies expanded more slowly in February as hiring level declined in a cautionary indication for the economy coming out of winter. Many recent economic indicators have pointed to weakening momentum. The greenback traded lower during yesterday's trading session.

Technical view

The USD/CAD pair is trading at the level 1.1039 in Asia's trading session. Yesterday, the pair broke and closed below the supported trend line. From October 2013 onwards, the pair has a habit of holding the 21DEMA. In February 2014, it closed below the 21DEMA for the first time, but held 40DEMA and moved higher. Again yesterday, the pair closed below the 21DEMA and today opened and statred trading below it. The 40DEMA stood at 1.09965 and 50SMA was at 1.09752. We expect the price to stop at these two levels. A daily close below 1.09752 makes more weakness in the daily chart. The price is seen to move to lower levels towards 1.1019, 1.0843,1.0761, and 1.06122.

POSITIONAL: CLOSE BELOW 1.0975, BEAR ATTACK

S1 1.0996 R1 1.1052

S2 1.0975 R2 1.1195

S3 1.0761 R3 1.0761

In the daily chart, oscillators are giving a sell signal. Whereas, in the hourly chart, the RSI is in the oversold zone giving a buy signal. We could expect the price to pull back from cmp. In the H4 chart, the price is holding above the 200EMA.

INTRADAY: BUY WITH SL 1.1019. SELL BELOW 1.1019. The price will move up above 1.1041.

S1 1.1025 R1 1.1063

S2 1.1019 R2 1.1077

S3 1.1 R3 1.1098

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 06, 2014 Trend News

In Asia, Japan will release the30-y Bond Auction and the US will release some economic data such unemployment claims, revised nonfarm productivity q/q, revised unit labor costs q/q, factory orders m/m, natural gas storage. So there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.

Today's technical levels:

Resistance. 3: 103.02.

Resistance. 2: 102.82.

Resistance. 1: 102.61.

Support. 1: 102.37.

Support. 2: 102.16.

Support. 3: 101.96.

Description:

Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (101.96) and resistance 3 (103.02). Normally, when the level is touched, the USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Best regards,

Arief Makmur

Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup

InstaForex Group

http://instaforex.com

For discussion and more analysis go to: blog.mt5.com/arief

Disclaimer:

Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Analysis of Gold for March 06, 2014 Trend News

Gold price rose on concerns over labor market. Yesterday ADP nonfarm payroll data came in at below estimates. The US economy added 139,000 private sector jobs in February, well below the average over the last 12 months. Small businesses added 59,000 jobs, while medium businesses increased employment by 35,000 and large businesses created approximately 44,000 jobs. US service sector data was below expectations. The institute for Supply Management yesterday said that its service sector index fell to 51.6 from 54 in January. The US dollar has softened by these two weak releases.Traders' eyes are on Thursday's unemployment claims and Friday's non-farm employment change. Job numbers will act as the key indicators for further trading session in this week.

Technical view-

Bullish view

· Trading above $1,335.0

· RSI bullish in hourly chart

· Break out above $1,341.5

· Price trading above the moving averages 21,40,50 AND 200

Bearish view-

· Oscillators still in sell mode -daily chart

· Stiff resistance at $1,341.5,$1,347.0 and $1,355.0

· Neckline resistance at $1,355.0- weekly chart

· Sell on rallies until a day close above $1,361.0

· Break below $1,335.0 last hope for bulls at $1,332.0

Break below $1,332.0 free fall up to $1,329, $1,322.0, $1,318.0 and $1,297.0

Intraday

S1 $1,335.0 R1 $1,341.5

S2 $1,332.0 R2 $1,347.0

S3 $1329.0 R3 $1,351.0

Positional

S1 $1,329.0 R1 $1,347.0

S2 $1,318.0 R2 $1,355.0

S3 $1,295.0.0 R3 $1,361.0

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 06, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The EUR/JPY trades between 141.00 and 138.80/139.00 levels during several sessions. A break out on either direction is required for further directional conviction. At the moment, it is recommended to hold short positions. The risk remains at 143.00

2. Immediate resistance is at 142.00/143.00, followed by 145.50, while supports are spread through 136.00 (intermediary), followed by 134.00, 131.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure indicates that bulls could regain control if the price fails to break 136.00 lows in the coming sessions. 142.00/143.00 remains resistance region to check any rallies.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 143.00, target open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 06, 2014 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The GBP/CHF pair has broken past counter trend line of resistance as seen here. Currently, trading above 1.48 levels, it is recommended to initiate long positions. The risk remains at 1.4700.

2. Immediate support is at 1.4700/1.4600 (intermediary), followed by 1.4550, 1.4350, while resistance is at 1.4950/60 (intermediary), followed by 1.5120/30 respectively.

3. The structure indicates that bulls might regain control back and push prices through 1.4950/60 in the near term. A push through 1.5120/30 would be extremely bullish.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop at 1.4700, target open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for March 06, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. Silver might have formed a lower top at $21.70 or it would form at $22.00 level, before reversing lower towards $20.50/00. It is recommended to remain short and also look to sell rallies through $22.00 today. Risk remains at $22.50.

2. Immediate resistance is at $23.00, followed by $23.50 and higher up, while supports are spread through $20.50 (resistance turned support), followed by $20.00 and $19.00 levels respectively.

3 The structure reveals that bears should continue to remain in control, till prices are below $22.05/10. Levels of interest are the $20.50 and $20.00 for next long entries.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at $22.50, target at $20.50/00.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for March 06, 2014. Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

1. The metal remains unchanged after producing an engulfing bearish candle earlier. Currently trading at $1,337.00/38, Gold is expected to rally through the $1,345.00/50.00 region today before reversing lower. It is recommended to remain short and also look to add further at above levels. Risk remains at $1,359.50/61.00.

2. Immediate resistance is at $1,355.00 (intermediary), followed by $1,361.00 and $1,375.00, while supports are spread through $1,320.00, followed by $1,280.00/85.00, $1,230.00/40.00 and lower respectively.

3. The structure indicated that Gold should be headed lower after an engulfing bearish candle appearance. $1,240.00/50 remains level of interest.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at $1,362.50, target open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for March 06, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX has encountered strong resistance at the 80.11 level and now the USDX is trying to end to form a higher low pattern below that level. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 79.60. On the other hand, if the pair manages to make a strong breakout in the resistance level of 80.11, it's expected to rise to the resistance level of 80.62. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H4 chart: The USDX has established below the level of 80.09 and now it is very likely that the USDX falls to the support level of 79.93. Furthermore, if the USDX is able to consolidate above the level of 80.15, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.35. For now, it is very likely that the USDX continues to rise, as yet, it has respected the bullish trend line on this chart. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone.

H1 chart: The 200-day moving average has served as strong resistance on the USDX, so it is very likely that the USDX falls to the support level of 79.88. If the USDX does make a breakout at that level, it is likely to fall to the level of 79.64. On the other hand, if the USDX does make a breakout on the resistance level of 80.15, it's expected to rise to the level of 80.35. The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 79.88, take profit is at 79.64, and stop loss is at 80.12.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 06, 2014 Trend News

Daily chart: The GBP/USD made a bullish rebound above the support level of 1.6663 and now, this pair will try to climb up to the resistance level of 1.6766. If the pair manages to make a breakout at that level, it will be expected to rise to the resistance level of 1.6851. For now, we recommend placing buy orders on this pair as the GBP/USD has been strengthened in the current bullish bias. The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

H4 chart: The GBP/USD has consolidated above the 1.6700 level, so it is very likely that this pair continue up toward the resistance level of 1.6822, which is located one bullish trend line. However, it is expected to fall to the support level of 1.6667 if it takes a bearish rebound to current levels. The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

H1 chart: The pair is forming a bullish pattern near the point of control at the level of 1.6725, after the GBP/USD has established itself above the support level of 1.6700. If the pair manages to make a breakout on the resistance level of 1.6750, it's expected to rise to the level of 1.6800. On the other hand, if it manages to make a breakout in the support level of 1.6700, it's expected to fall to the level of 1.6629. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone and GBP/USD remains above the 200 SMA.

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6750, take profit is at 1.6800, and stop loss is at 1.6700.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 5, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 05/03/2014 15:10 CET

The green wave b looks like it is finished, however the market is still trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 1.1087. Break out above this level would be bullish and wave C green might be in progress. Confirmation for more upside would have come if technical resistance at the level of 1.1157 is broken. In that case, the grey rectangle supply zone will be tested. On the other hand, without the red channel breakout no upside is possible and lower levels are expected.

Support/Resistance:

1.0895 - WS3

1.0967 - WS2

1.0969 - 78% Fibo

1.1016 - 1.1027 Supply breakthrough zone

1.1016 - WS1

1.1038 - Intraday support

1.1087 - Weekly pivot

1.1115 - Intraday resistance

1.1135 - WR1 | Key Level |

1.1156 - Technical resistance

Trading recommendations:

In case of red channel breakout, long positions should be opened from the level of 1.1087 with SL below the level of 1.1048 and TP at the level of 1.1115 and 1.1157 with a possible upside extension.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 5, 2014 Trend News

General overview for 05/03/2014 15:00 CET

The gap has been filled and now the market is trading in a red channel between the lintraday resistance at the level of 140.76 and intraday support at the level of 140.44. The wave progression indicates a possible top for wave b green and more downside price action is anticipated at the moment. The first clue will be the red channel break out to the downside and weekly pivot test. If the weekly pivot is broken, then the next support will be provided by golden trend line and in case of failure here market suppose to be trading even lower. The target level is the same so far and it is 61%Fibo at the level of 138.14.

Support/Resistance:

141.10 - 141.26 - Supply zone | Key Level |

140.76 - Intraday resistance

140.44 - Intraday support

139.87 - Weekly pivot

139.60 - Golden trend line support

138.80 - Wave (a) low

138.66 - WS1

138.14 - 61%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

Still short positions should be preffered and it's a good place to open a sell order at the level of 140.44 with SL above 141.31 and TP at the level of 139.87 and 139.60 with a possible extension down to 138.14 in days to come.

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EUR/NZD analysis for March 05, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

Since our previous analysis, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading downwards, the price tested the level of 1.6289 on volume above the average. Since the price has broken our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% (), next possible end of the corrective phase may be around the Fibonacci expansion 61.8 % at the price of 1.6270. Be careful with selling since we may see the end of bearish corrective phase (abcd). EUR/NZD is in short- and mid-term bullish trend, so watch for buying opportunities on the dips and try to catch the bullish continuation phase. The first upper station is the area around the price of 1.6515. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.6250 on high volume, we may see further downwards movement before the major bullish continuation phase.

Daily pivot Fibonacci points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6423

R2: 1.6443

R3: 1.6475

Support levels:

S1: 1.6360

S2 : 1.6340

S3: 1.6309

Trading recommendation: Be careful with selling the EUR/NZD pair, watch for buying opportunities and try to catch the potential bullish continuation phase.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 5, 2014 Trend News

The pair remains in the bearish impulse initiated off its peak price around 1.6820 as long as this highest price doesn't get broken through.

The breakdown of 1.6600 is essential to confirm reversal and trigger a stronger pullback, which will pause the short-term bullish momentum and open the way towards 1.6536 (50% Fibonacci Level of the swing between 1.6250/1.6821) and psychological Demand of 1.6500 as well.

The price level of 1.6600 seems to be a considerable support for the pair so far.

The bears failed to fixate below it on the last bearish attempt that took place two weeks ago. Instead, bullish pressure was applied to push again towards 1.6750 and 1.6800.

A double-top is probably being established around 1.6770 which needs breakdown of the neck-line around 1.6575. Projection target is located roughly at 1.6400.

The bulls concentrated on price level of 1.6600 considering it as an ideal reversal point.

Stabilization of 1.6600 protected the pair from further decline. This led to a sideway consolidative phase before the ongoing bullish breakout took place last week.

As expected, breakthrough above 1.6666 opened the way towards 1.6740 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci of the recent bearish swing depicted on the 4H chart.

Breakthrough above 1.6740 (61.8% Fibonacci) is a must to bring bulls back to push towards 1.6820 again.

On the other hand, stabilization below which traps the pair between it and the backside of the broken channel around 1.6650 (Recent Demand Level) which may lead to a sideway consolidative phase until new fundamental data gets into the market.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 5, 2014 Trend News

Successive ascending bottoms were established on the daily chart. This means the uptrend line established on September 2013 is still intact.

The ongoing bullish impulse is probably targeting at 1.3900 corresponding to 100% Fibonacci Expansion as long as the depicted uptrend line remains defended by the bulls.

The pair failed to reach this price level on the previous attempt that took place on December 2013. Moreover, the recent daily candlestick are showing bearish rejection including Yesterday's candlestick which is an inverted hammer.

This may contribute to a bearish corrective movement towards 1.3670 before further bullish movement takes place.

As long as the bulls are defending the established bottom at 1.3630 and the recent one at 1.3720, the EUR/USD pair remains bullish on the intermediate prospective.

The price zone of 1.3630-1.3720 which is trapped between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, is considered an important Demand zone to be provide a valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, breakdown of 1.3600-1.3630 invalidates the bullish scenario for the short-term prospective.

Stop Loss for the bullish scenario is located below 1.3680. Note that breakdown of 1.3680-1.3630 will open the way directly towards the next DEMAND level at 1.3570.

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EUR/AUD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 5, 2014 Trend News

On January 24, the EUR/AUD pair initiated a downside movement. This movement was maintained within the depicted bearish channel.

On February 13, the bulls expressed a bullish breakout above the upper limit when the bears seemed to be weak.

Simultaneously, the bulls established a bullish Head and Shoulders pattern off 1.5000. The neckline is roughly located at 1.5265.

Confirmation of bullish reversal is evident with Four-Hour fixation above the price level of 1.5265.

Projection target of this reversal pattern is located at 1.5555. However, the bulls couldn't hit higher than price level of 1.5500 where strong bearish rejection was expressed last week.

As long as neckline 1.5265-1.5200 remains defended by the bulls, the pair remains bullish towards 1.5525 and 1.5575.

A valid BUY entry may be offered at retesting of 1.5260 which is being approached by the bears today. Stop Loss should be located below 1.5200 with our bullish targets as mentioned above.

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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 5, 2014 Trend News

A prominent bottom was established around 1.6250. This price level corresponds to previous multiple tops as well as another recent bottom established in December 2013.

A breakthrough above the price zone of 1.6590-1.6660 opened the way directly towards the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.6820 where the GBP/USD pair topped recently.

As expected, shortly after, the bears retraced towards 1.6590-1.6660. An ascending bottom was established there on February 24.

The bulls are probably targeting at the recent high around 1.6800. The market may offer a SELL entry at retesting.

On the other hand, the pair is moving sideways in a price range which needs an obvious breakout to end the congestion phase taking place now.

The pair is still trapped between 1.6730 (61.8% Fibonacci on the 4H chart) and 1.6590 (lower limit of this congestion zone).

As depicted on the chart, the bulls tried to breakthrough above 61.8% Fibonacci around 1.6730. However, immediate bearish rejection took place to push lower again.

Fixation below the price zone of 1.6705-1.6735 will allow a bearish impulse to take place towards 1.6620 initially.

Price action should be watched at retesting of price zone of 1.6550-1.6470 as a valid BUY entry may be offered with stop loss as 4H closure below 1.6500.

On the other hand, Sellers should be watching the recent top at 1.6820 for a new SELL entry with SL as daily closure above 1.6850.

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#USDX Technical analysis for March 5, 2014 Trend News

The Dolllar index as it was mentioned yesterday is at an important pivotal point that could decide long-term trend. The 80 price level is very important and that is why during the last weeks we saw a battle of bulls and bears around this area with a tight price range of 79.70 and 80.60.

This can be clearly seen in the weekly chart above. The upward sloping trend line from 2011 is support. The downward sloping trend line from June 2013 is resistance. The price range of 79-80 is support whereas the price range of 80.50-81.50 is resistance.

Short-term trend is down as there is a lower lows and lower highs pattern as shown in the 4 hour chart above. The Dollar index is back testing the broken red trend line but the important resistance trend line is the one coming from 81.30 to 80.50. We remain bearish as long as the index remains below 80.60.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 5, 2014 Trend News

Overview :

• The market indicates the lower volatility of 51.84 today.The AUD/USD pair had risen from the strong level of 0.8900 and extended further to as high as 0.8977 yesterday but it closed at the 0.8950 level today. Equally important, the support will form at 0.8900 because this level has also formed a double bottom on March 3, 2014 at the level of 0.8890. Additionally, it also should be noticed that the range of the AUD/USD pair was around 60 pips because the volatility was not indicating the higher volatility. Moreover, the price has set above 00% of Fibonacci retracement levels for two weeks at the same level which set above. Consequently, we expect a saturation around the level of 0.8900/0.8950. Hence, it is probably that the market will start showing the signs of bullish market again in order to indicate a bullish opportunity from the levels of 0.8900 or 0.8950 (00% or 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels in H1 chart). Thereupon, buy above 0.8900 or 0.8950 with the first target at 0.8985 besides it will call for upward in order to continue bullish towards 0.9033. On the other hand, if the bulls will have forced to pullback at the level of 0.8900 and sellers can break this level therefore the best solution to set the stop loss at the price of 0.8875.

Intraday technical levels :

Date and time: 5/03/2014 10:02

Pair: AUD/USD

• R3: 0.9033


• R2: 0.9000


• R1: 0.8975


• PP: 0.8942


• S1: 0.8917


• S2: 0.8884


• S3: 0.8859

Note :

• Range: 58 pips.


• A risk to reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended. As a result, the risk of 58 pips must make a profit of 87.00.

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Gold technical analysis for March 5, 2014 Trend News

Gold price reversal from $1,354 to $1,331 could be the entire short-term downward reaction, before bulls come back and push prices higher. The trend remains up as long as Gold price remains above $1,320 with the $1,360-70 target. Gold price continues to fight the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance and that is why it has stuck for so much time in this area. It is a good sign for bulls that we do not see a steep reversal but rather a consolidation near the highs.

The short-term chart as shown above shows how Gold price is supported by both the upward sloping trend line and the Ichimoku cloud. Gold price is expected to make another try higher towards $1,360. Short-term resistance is found at $1.343.

The daily chart shows how Gold price is fighting the important resistance at the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement. A clear break out above this level will open the way towards $1,380-$1,400. We remain bullish and we have $1,320 as stop.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 5, 2014 Trend News

The weekly pivot point will set at the price of 1.6697

Overview :

• The GBP/USD pair probably will form strong support at the level of 1.6625 (above 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels. Moreover, it will also form sturdy resistance at the 1.6730 level in the H1 chart. So, the range of the GBP/USD pair will be about 103 pips today. Equally important, the price is going to form tripple bottom at 1.6625 (the last bearish wave for the last week). Furthermore, the saturation is likely to take place around this spot, since this level also formed the strong support on February 24, 2014. Consequently, it is possible that the market will start showing bullish signs. Buy deals are recommended above 1.6625 with the first target seen at the level of 1.6697 (this level is representing the weekly pivot point for March 4-7, 2014). Additionally, the price is going to continue towards 1.6728 after breaking the weekly pivot point. Thereupon, it also should be noted that the level of 1.6730 will represent strong resistance today at the price of 1.6728 (78.6% of Fibonacci retracement levels).

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