Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 28, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the flows to haven yen amid subdued risk appetite (S&P fell 0.19% overnight) as weaker-than-expected upward revision in U.S. 4Q GDP from 2.4% to 2.6% annual rate (versus 2.7% forecast); and surprise 0.8% drop in U.S. February pending home sales index (defying forecast for +0.2% increase) offset smaller-than-expected 311,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended March 22 (versus 325,000 forecast);and rise in Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index to 10 in March from 4 in February. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY downside is limited by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.13 versus 80.00 early Thursday) as upbeat U.S. jobless claims data boosted optimism for the next week's U.S. non-farm payrolls report, demand from Japan's importers, loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and positions adjustment before weekend.

Technical сomment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is in bullish mode, but stochastics is neutral, five and 15-day moving average is meandering sideways.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As far as the price is above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.85 and the second target at 103.10. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.95. A breach of this target will push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 101.75. The pivot point is at 102.25.

Resistance levels:

102.85

103.10

103.35

Support levels:

101.95

101.75

101.45

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