Global macro overview for 11/08/2015:
Traders are unwinding the bullish dollar exposure for the fifth consecutive day because of the expectations that the US Federal Reserve is leaning towards its interest rake hike. This point of view might have suggested a greater investment flows into the US, thus lifting the dollar and causing the dollar index to rally. Nevertheless, the US dollar index was 0.38 percent down and closed at 97.18 yesterday. Please note that the fundamental events that have been priced into the market over the last few weeks were: China's stock sell-off (negative), China's poor PMI, and other economic indicators (negative) as well as oil and gold sell-off (negative), the endless negotiations between the euro zone and Greece (negative). So maybe the bullish bets on the dollar have been too crowded recently and now it is time for a breath of relief.
Nevertheless, the next important economic release that traders should keep an eye on because of implications for the timing of a Fed hike (September or December) is the US July retail sales data, which is due to be released on Thursday.
The USDX technical picture points to a possible golden trendline breakout around the level of 97.00. Next support is at the level of 96.28, resistance at the level of 98.33.
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