USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting a three-day high of 0.9406 on Thursday. It is supported by improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.09 versus 94.61 early Thursday) after a 1.2% m/m increase in US May retail sales, larger-than-expected 0.4% increase in US April business inventories (versus forecast +0.2%), higher-than-expected 1.3% on-month rise in the US May import price index (forecast +1.0%), demand from Japanese importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF is limited by franc demand for retreating EUR/CHF cross, soft NZD/CHF cross, and and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is turned bullish at oversold levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9420 and the second target at 0.9475. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9230 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9170. The pivot point is at 0.9290.
Resistance levels: 0.9420 0.9475 0.9525
Support levels: 0.9230 0.9170 0.9115
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