The euro edged higher 1.30% against the USD on the week ending June 12th. The pair managed to regain losses the pair had incurred last week. Greece is the driving force for the euro. Weakness on the US dollar added some more fuel to euro bulls. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma on a second consecutive week as well. This month, the pair has managed to trade above a 4-month high.
This week, the economic calendar is full of important data. The week starts with Germany's Bundesbank President speech followed by ECB President. On Tuesday, German ZEW economic sentiment, European court of Justice ruling, and employment change on quarterly basis are due. CPI on yearly basis will be released on Wednesday. On Thursday, targeted LTRO and the Eurogroup meeting will be held. The week ends with German PPI and ECOFIN meetings.
Weekly view: On the daily and four-hour charts, the pair has been forming higher highs and higher lows formation. The pair managed to close above 20Wsma which is set at 1.1050. Last week, the pair managed to close above 100Dema on a closing basis. These factors added power to euro bulls to make 1.1700. The weekly resistance seems at 1.1345, 1.1400 and 1.1470. Support is found at 1.1125, 1.1050, 20Wsma and last hope remains at 1.1035 50Dsma. A daily close above the previous swing high aims at 1.1700.
Intraday: In the four-hour chart, the pair made a double top pattern at 1.1387. Bulls must close above 1.1400 to erase the cap. Intraday resistance seems at 1.1325, 1.1345, and 1.1400. A trend change level remains at 1.1470. Support is seen at 1.1235, 1.1200, and 1.1150. The weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.1050 and 1.1470, either side closing will open gates for 1.1700 or 1.0900. At the Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD & JPY. The Greek talks are supposed to break down pressure on the euro since the very beginning of the new week. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled on June 18th. This event could determine a further trend.
Trade: Selling is available below 1.1200 with targets at 1.1180/1.1170, 1.1130, and 1.1100. Selling is accelerating below 1.1100 with an immediate target at 1.1060.
Buying is possible above 1.1235 with targets at 1.1250, 1.1270, 1.1290, 1.1320, and 1.1345. In the extreme case, 1.1380 is likely to be hit. Strong head room is available above 1.1400. Safe buy above 1.1250.
To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
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