Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 16, 2015 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a six-day low 118.11 this morning. Liquidity is thin later in global day as financial markets in the U.S. are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the negative USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.12 versus 94.18 early Friday) on a surprise drop in preliminary University of Michigan U.S. consumer sentiment index to 93.6 in February from 98.1 in January (versus forecast for rise to 98.3) and selling of yen crosses as caution prevails ahead of the outcome of the meeting between the new Greek government and eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday over Greece's bailout program. USD/JPY is also weighed by the mounting speculation that the Bank of Japan will not ease monetary policy further and by Japan's exports. But the USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.021% versus 1.986% late Thursday).

Technical comment:
The daily chart mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 117.65. The pivot point stands at 119.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.75 and the second target at 120.20.

Resistance levels:

119.75

120.20

120.70

Support levels:

118

117.65

117.30

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