Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the selling of the yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at 1,989.63 overnight, although VIX fear gauge finished down 3.13% to 20.42) as oil prices extend falls to a fresh five-and-a-half-year lows on Monday - Nymex crude hit $55.02/bbl, its cheapest figure since May 8, 2009 - stoking concerns over the receding demand and slowing global economy. USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the improved USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.43 versus 88.20 on early Monday), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.114% versus 2.103% on late Friday), 1.3% on month increase in U.S. November industrial production (versus forecast +0.8%) and the U.S. November capacity utilization of 80.1% (versus forecast 79.4%) that outweigh a surprise drop in Empire State's business conditions index to -3.58 in December from +10.16 in November (versus forecast for rise to 14) and an unexpected fall in the U.S. NAHB housing market index to 57 in December from 58 in November (versus forecast for rise to 59). USD/JPY downside is also limited by the demand from Japan's import, the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positions adjustment as market participants trim risk exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary decision on Wednesday.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 115.85. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 115.40. The pivot point stands at 117.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 118.40 and the second target at 119.10.
Resistance levels:
118.40
119.10
119.45
Support levels:
115.85
115.40
115.15
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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