Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 18, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high at 117.06 on Monday. It is underpinned by the increased expectations that Prime Minister Abe will delay a planned sales-tax hike after a surprise 0.4% on-quarter contraction in Japan 3Q GDP (versus forecast for 0.5% expansion). USD/JPY also supported by broadly firmer USD undertone (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.96 versus 87.60 early Monday) on relative better U.S. economic picture and diverging U.S. monetary policy stance versus other major economies; ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan's importers. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise 0.1% drop in U.S. October industrial production (versus forecast +0.2%), lower-than-expected U.S. October capacity utilization of 78.9% (versus forecast 79.3%), weaker-than-expected rise in U.S. Empire State's business conditions index to 10.16 in November from 6.17 in October (versus forecast 10.50). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan's exporter sales.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.30 and the second target at 117.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 116.05. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 115.80. The pivot point is at 116.35.

Resistance levels:

117.30

117.60

118

Support levels:

116.05

115.80

115.50

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