Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 17, 2014 Market Analysis Review

Fundamental overview:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 116.83 on Friday. It is underpinned by the negative yen sentiment as speculation continues to mount that Prime Minister Abe will delay a planned sales-tax increase to ensure the nation's economic recovery continues. USD/JPY is also supported by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 3.48% to 13.31; S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to post record-high close of 2,039.82 on Friday) after bigger-than-expected 0.3% on-month increase in U.S. October retail sales (versus forecast +0.2%) and better-than-expected University of Michigan preliminary November consumer sentiment index of 89.4 (versus forecast 87.8). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last at 87.59 versus 87.77 early Friday) as U.S. Treasury yields slipped (10-year at 2.320% versus 2.345% late Thursday) after U.S. import price index dropped 1.3% on-month in October (versus forecast minus 1.2%) for largest monthly decline in more than two years, while University of Michigan survey showed inflation expectations covering the next five to 10 years fell from 2.8% to 2.6%, the lowest level since 2009.

Technical comment:

Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 116.90 and the second target at 117.30. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 115.35. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 114.90. The pivot point is at 115.70.

Resistance levels:

116.90

117.30

117.55

Support levels:

115.35

114.90

114.50

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