Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range as markets await 1230 GMT 2nd estimate U.S. 2Q GDP (forecast +3.8%). USD/JPY is undermined by the broadly weaker demand for USD as the ICE spot dollar index enters consolidation mode after reaching a 13-month high of 82.727 Wednesday (USD Index last at 82.47 versus 82.67 early Wednesday). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.361% versus 2.398% late Tuesday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers. There is no strong cue for yen-funded trades from Wall Street overnight as U.S. stock indexes closed largely unchanged (S&P 500 flat at 2,000.12; DJIA up 0.09%; Nasdaq off 0.02%) although the VIX fear gauge rose 1.29% to 11.78.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages advancing, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 103.40 and the second target at 103. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 104.25. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 104.50. The pivot point is at 104.
Resistance levels:
104.25
104.50
104.80
Support levels:
103.40
103
102.70
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