Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 10, 2014 Trend News

Overview:

USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 2.75% to 11.65) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.46% at 1,972.83) after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting left expectations intact for the timing of interest-rate increases. The minutes showed that the Fed plans to finish winding down its bond-buying program in October. Policymakers discussed how to exit the current low-rate policies but gave no indications that increase to key policy rates were coming sooner than the market anticipated. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.03 versus 80.17 early Wednesday) on lower U.S. Treasury yields following dovish FOMC minutes; Japanese export sales. Yen crosses vulnerable to China June trade balance data.

Technical comment:
The daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are in the bearish mode.

Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.40. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.20. The pivot point stands at 101.80. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it would moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102 and the second target at 102.25.

Resistance levels:

102

102.25

102.50

Support levels:

101.40

101.20

101

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