Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields and weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 80.41 versus 80.61 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve announced a $10 billion reduction in its bond-buying program as expected, while other Fed's actions suggest the central bank is in no hurry to raise interest rates and interpreted as still highly accommodative. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers and reduced safe-haven appeal of yen as well as JPY-funded carry trades as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 12.02% to 10.61; S&P 500 hit record high 1957.74 before closing up 0.77% at 1956.98 overnight) after Fed Chairwoman Yellen offered an upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.60. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.45. The pivot point stands at 102. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.10 and the second target at 102.30.
Resistance levels:
102.10
102.30
102.55
Support levels:
101.60
101.45
101.15
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