Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.55% to 11.6) as U.S. stocks fell overnight (S&P 500 off 0.35%) after the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast for 2014 to 2.8% from its 3.2% forecast in January. USD/JPY is also influenced by Japan's export sales and lower shorter-term U.S. Treasury yields. But USD/JPY losses tempered by demand from Japanese importers.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is falling from the overbought zone.
Trading recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 101.80. A breach of this target will move the pair further downwards to 101.70. The pivot point stands at 102.20. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and then it moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 102.40 and the second target at 102.60.
Resistance levels:
102.40
102.60
102.80
Support levels:
101.80
101.70
101.50
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